August 14, 2014 Leave a comment
I was wondering if Draisaitl & Yakupov would make good linemates this year. So I looked into similar combinations of an 18 year-old & 20 – 22 year-old and what their statistics were like.
Here’s a list of similar comparable’s of 18 year-old players who had a 21 or younger linemates and played at least 35% of their season together.
|Category||Patrick Kane||Jon Toews|
1st & 2nd easiest zone starts among players that played +20 games.
|Category||Sam Gagner||Andrew Cogliano|
Cogliano & Gagner had the 3rd & 4th easiest zone starts for players that played more than 20 minutes.
Tavares had 1st easiest zone start. Okposo is 6th easiest zone starts for players that played +20 games.
Landeskog had 5th easiest zone start. O’Reilly had 3rd toughest zone start.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had the easiest zone start. Hall had the 3rd easiest zone start.
Skinner had the easiest zone start. Lindholm had the 3rd easiest zone start among players that played 20+ games.
|Category||Mikkel Boedker||Martin Hanzal|
Hanzal had toughest zone start & Boedker had 4th toughest zone start for players that played +20 games.
So can Yak & Drai succeed together?
I think the answer is yes. The Oiler’s under Tom Renney did this with Eberle & RNH in Nuge’s rookie year. In 2011-12 Nuge played 75% with Eberle. Both players had 60+ offensive zone starts, they both put up 1.9+ pts/60 at evens and their Corsi% together was above 50%. That year the Oilers depth wasn’t as strong as it is this year. The Oilers have have 8 established veterans (Nuge, Hall, Eberle, Gordon, Hendricks, Purcell, Pouliot & Perron) and two players in Arcobello & Lander that excelled in the AHL last year. The Oiler’s could easily pair Draisaitl and Yakupov together and give them heavy zone starts 55 – 65% offensive zone starts and allow them to play the easy opposition and they should be able to survive.
I think that Yakupov will have a significant rebound year. Last year, according to behindthenet.ca, Yakupov had a horrible year compared to his rookie year despite being put in a better situation.
If we project that Yakupov will improve his Corsi to 48%, Pts/60 to 1.75, IPP to 75%, PDO to stabilize to 1000 & 12 minutes of EV minutes per game. Nail Yakupov will increase his even strength scoring from .29 ES Pts/G to .43 ES Pts/G, I think all of these numbers are doable.
I think it’s worth a shot to give them offensive zone starts against easy opposition and see how they do. I think with sheltered minutes Yak & Drai could put up 1.5+ Pts/60. If these two can build chemistry together and play 65+ games (I think there will be games where it might make sense to sit Draisaitl) it could help their secondary scoring while putting them in a situation to succeed.