What are the chances of Mitch Moroz being a player for the Edmonton Oilers?
I wanted to get a list of comparable players to Mitch Moroz that went on to play in the NHL. To see if there is a realistic shot of him making the show as anything more than an enforcer.
Here is the list of 11 players that I had compared him too. The list was a range of players who are physical, agitating, two-way players that take a regular shift.
||17 / Pts/G
So Moroz could be a valuable hockey player, then great! Maybe I should slow down, I am taking the most successful data. Essentially saying don’t write the player off.Outside of Moroz’s 18 year old season he is within the range of the majority of these players. What should we expect from Moroz in his first professional season? Looking at the list there are some very useful hockey players. Most of them aren’t top 6 material, but they are players that NHL teams value.
People are upset about the pick for two reasons. The likelihood of Moroz turning out might not be the greatest (more on the later) and the pick that he was chosen with.
Of all the players listed above only two (Lapierre & Bickell) were second round picks. The players above ranged from 41st (Bickell) to 214 (Brouwer) and the average was 128.5. If Moroz was a 3rd or 4th round pick. He would be tracking well, but he was chosen early second. There were better players on the board. Which is true. There were also better players on the board when the Hawks picked Bickell. Personally, I like Nik Kerdiles over Moroz in this type of role. My pick would have been Matt Finn though. The thing is you can’t change the pick, otherwise I’m sure all 20 other teams would have selected Messier before the Oilers.
From 2000 – 09 I started looking through players that fit a similar type that were drafted in the 2nd round. Here’s the list:
||Draft Year Pts/G
What are his chances?
The average chance of a second round pick playing 200+ games in the NHL is roughly 25 – 30%. I don’t see any clear data that suggests that Moroz has less than a 25% chance of breaking the 200+ game barrier.
Good teams (LA, Boston, NYR, St.L & NJ) make these types of picks early in the draft. Teams draft for organizational needs. Mitch Moroz’s his second year is a cause for concern, but from a positive standpoint I think his final junior year was within range. I think we can all agree that Moroz likely isn’t going to magically turn into Milan Lucic.
If Moroz is going to make it, I think it’s going to be in the mold of Comeau, Clifford or Thorburn. A nasty type player that can play a regular shift. He could be a useful player.
How long will Moroz take?
For people wondering when Moroz will get there and take Gazdic’s role. It’s likely going to take some time, 5 players that I consider good comps were Marcus Foligno, Chris Neil, Chris Thorburn, Derek Dorsett & BJ Crombeen.
||AHL Pts/G 1st
||AHL Pts/G 2nd
Dorsett made the NHL full time after one season apprentice in the AHL. Foligno was a season and a half. Neil was a full two seasons in the minors. Thorburn and Crombeen needed three years in the minors before becoming full-time players. The weird part is Crombeen played his 2nd season in the ECHL & Finland, not sure why, which is why he’s not on the second season list.
Of the players that have played 100 or more games, every player, with the exception of BJ Crombeen, that has played their first 100 games with the team that drafted them. Players value this type of player.
Moroz is going to have a lot of competition for the physical bottom six role with the Oilers. Going on the level of successful players on the lists above. The expectation for Moroz for next season would be 25+ points in 2014-15 with the OKC Barons, if Moroz has 25 or more points next season this should be considered the normal adjusting period. The second season should indicated whether we have a prospect. In his second season we should expect to see an increased point totals in the range 45+, in order for us to consider Moroz a quality prospect.