The Oilers are getting close to the June 1st deadline to sign their draft picks. The big question is should the Oilers sign Jeremie Blain, Drew Czerwonka & Brandon Davidson.
Let’s take a look at the success rate for a 4th round pick and what should expect for Jeremie Blain. What are the odds of Jeremie Blain being an impact defender? Here’s a look at the success rate of 4th round players.
From 2001 to 2005 there were 150 players drafted. So far 22 will likely play 200+ which is around a 15% (14.6% to be exact) success rate. Among those players are; Ryan Callahan, Keith Yandle, Christian Erhoff, Nik Hjalmarsson, Jan Hejda, Kyle Quincey & Tyler Kennedy. You also have several role players such as; Torrey Mitchell, Ray Emery, Ryan Jones & Jordin Tootoo. I’d say between 7-10% of players drafted in the 4th round become average to above average players.
How does Blain compare to other defenseman drafted in the late 3rd & 4th round drafted out of the CHL?
Jermie Blain – 6’2 195 lbs – .86 PPG
Morgan Ellis – 6’2 195 – .86 PPG
Austin Madaisky – 6’2 200 – .71 PPG
Julian Melchiori – 6’4 210 – .51 PPG
Stephen Silas – 6′ 205 – .48 PPG
Brandon Archibald – 6’4 212 – .24 PPG
Alex Theriau – 6’1 185 – .24 PPG
As far as peers the only player that Blain compares to is Morgan Ellis, who according to Hockey’s Future is the 3rd rated defenseman prospect in Montreal’s system, behind two first round picks Tinordi & Beaulieu.
Last year there were 4 2010 1st round D-men picks playing in the CHL. Blain has outscored them all except Brandon Gormley.
10. Dylan McIlrath – .44
13. Brandon Gormley – .91
22. Jared Tinordi – .33
23. Mark Pysk – .67
46. Martin Marincin – .69
In fact, other than Gormley the only other CHL defenseman that is outscoring Blain is – Jerome Gauthier-Leduc.
Blain plays with a bit of grit and has decent size. The scouting reports say that he has excellent vision, hockey sense and has good offensive ability. One area of need for the Edmonton Oilers defense prospects is the PP QB, Blain might be candidate for this list. He does have injury concerns, and needs to improve on his skating, but nothing that would shy me away from an ELC.
Jeremie Blain has done his part to earn an NHL contract, now the Oilers need to see if he can continue his development and if he will be one of the 15% to become an NHL regular.