Russian D-Man (Draft Year)

In the past 10 years 25 defenseman from Russia were selected in the NHL Entry Draft.  I am going to look at how the players drd during their 1st draft eligible year.  That does not mean that they were selected in their first year players such as Yegor Rykov who was drafted this past year was in his second year of eligibility.

# Team Player H DOB
7 Philadelphia Flyers  Ivan Provorov (D) 6’1 1/13/1997
9 Montréal Canadiens  Mikhail Sergachyov (D) 6’4 6/25/1998
14 Florida Panthers  Dmitri Kulikov (D) 6′ 10/29/1990
16 Buffalo Sabres  Nikita Zadorov (D) 6’5 4/16/1995
32 Los Angeles Kings  Vyacheslav Voynov (D) 6′ 1/15/1990
55 Washington Capitals  Dmitri Orlov (D) 5’11 7/23/1991
63 New York Islanders  Andrey Pedan (D) 6’5 7/3/1993
66 Vancouver Canucks  Nikita Tryamkin (D) 6’8 8/30/1994
68 Toronto Maple Leafs  Rinat Valiyev (D) 6’2 5/11/1995
79 New York Rangers  Sergei Zborovsky (D) 6’5 2/21/1997
101 Colorado Avalanche  Andrei Mironov (D) 6’2 7/29/1994
122 New York Islanders  Anton Klementyev (D) 6′ 3/25/1990
132 New Jersey Devils  Yegor Rykov (D) 6’2 4/14/1997
148 Tampa Bay Lightning  Nikita Nesterov (D) 5’11 3/28/1993
159 Columbus Blue Jackets  Vladislav Gavrikov (D) 6’3 11/21/1995
161 Colorado Avalanche  Sergei Boikov (D) 6’2 1/24/1996
178 Tampa Bay Lightning  Oleg Sosunov (D) 6’8 4/13/1998
183 Dallas Stars  Dmitri Sinitsyn (D) 6’2 6/17/1994
187 Calgary Flames  Rushan Rafikov (D) 6’2 5/15/1995
195 Boston Bruins  Maxim Chudinov (D) 5’11 3/25/1990
200 New York Rangers  Mikhail Pashnin (D) 6’1 5/11/1989
201 Philadelphia Flyers  Valeri Vasilyev (D) 6’1 5/31/1994
205 Detroit Red Wings  Alexei Marchenko (D) 6’2 1/2/1992
207 Washington Capitals  Dmitri Zaitsev (D) 6’1 1/18/1998
209 Edmonton Oilers  Ziyat Paigin (D) 6’6 2/8/1995

Canadian Major Junior

  • CHL is consisted of QMJHL, OHL & WHL.
  • Seven players played their 17 year-old draft season in Canadian Major Junior hockey.
  • Six of the seven players were selected inside the first 80 selections.  In fact seven of the first 10 Russian players selected played in the CHL.

17 Year-Old Season

Player PPG League
 Ivan Provorov (D) 1.02 WHL
 Mikhail Sergachyov (D) 0.85 OHL
 Dmitri Kulikov (D) 1.09 QMJHL
 Nikita Zadorov (D) 0.24 OHL
 Andrey Pedan (D) 0.24 OHL
 Sergei Zborovsky (D) 0.27 WHL
Sergei Boikov 0.18 QMJHL
  • The average PPG is .56
  • There will be more context after I have a chance to look at CHL numbers but Provorov, Sergachyov & Kulikov produced good-to-excellent offensive numbers.
  • Zadorov, Pedan and Zborovsky are big players both over 6’5 and produced low offensive numbers.
  • Boikov was drafted as an overage player.

 

Russia – KHL & Russia SuperLeague

Player League Pts/G GP PTS
 Vyacheslav Voynov (D) Russia-SL 0.11 36 4
 Dmitri Orlov (D) KHL 0.07 15 1
 Maxim Chudinov (D) Russia 0.00 18 0

 

There were only three players selected in the NHL that played the majority of their first draft eligible season in the KHL/Russian SuperLeague.  The Russian SuperLeague was the KHL before the KHL.

If a prospect is playing at this level they should strongly be considered a draft prospect.  Both Orlov and Voynov were early selections (both second round picks), whereas Chudinov was a 7th round pick.

  • Voynov, legal issues aside, was a legit top four defenseman.
  • Orlov has 60 points in 200 NHL games.  He plays predominately 3rd pairing minutes with the Capitals.
  • Chudinov likely has enough talent to play in the NHL.  He is one of the top defenseman in the KHL and, I believe, he is signed for two more seasons.

There’s very little data to make any judgement on.  Other than to say that if a 17 year-old is playing in the KHL, regardless of their PPG, there is a good chance that he will have a shot in the NHL.  Draft the kid.

MHL

Player League Pts/G GP PTS
 Alexei Marchenko (D) MHL 0.79 43 34
 Yegor Rykov (D) MHL 0.50 42 21
 Nikita Nesterov (D) MHL 0.41 46 19
 Vladislav Gavrikov (D) MHL 0.27 45 12
 Anton Klementyev (D) Russia-3 0.26 68 18
 Nikita Tryamkin (D) MHL 0.20 60 12
 Rushan Rafikov (D) MHL 0.19 53 10
 Andrei Mironov (D) MHL 0.15 59 9
 Valeri Vasilyev (D) MHL 0.11 18 2
  • MHL is the top Junior league within Russia.  Unlike the CHL the teams may have an affiliation with a KHL team.  Here is a HF boards thread which discusses the MHL.
  • The average Pts/G is .32
  • Both Marchenko, Nesterov & the colossal (6’8) Trymakin have played in the NHL.
  • Outside of  Nikita Tryamkin all the players that averaged under .4 PPG do not appear to be on target to be NHL players.  All of the > .4 PPG prospects, with the exception of Tryamkin, are between 6′ – 6’3 and were born in 1990 – 1991.
  • So by quick glance, if you are  drafting out of the MHL they should be above .25 PPG.

MHL B

Player League Pts/G GP PTS
 Ziyat Paigin (D) MHL B 0.51 35 18
 Oleg Sosunov (D) MHL B 0.31 39 12
 Dmitri Sinitsyn (D) MHL B 0.00 7 0
  • There were only three players selected in the MHL-B division.  Each player has his own story.
  • Ziyat Piagin is a big defender that went undrafted in his first two years of eligibility.
  • Oleg Sosunov was drafted this past season, he is another giant defender (6’8), with a nasty side (66 PIMs in 39 games) and was ranked 25th by NHL Central Scouting amongst European skaters.
  • Dmitry Sinitsyn took a weird detour in his hockey career.  His 16 year old season he played with the Dallas Stars U18 midget team.  He was drafted to play with Green Bay in the USHL.  Had a visa issue where he then returned home to play 7 games in the MHL.  He then returned to North America in December and practiced with U of Mass-Lowell but was redshirted, meaning – didn’t play in any games so that he could keep his four years of NCAA eligibility.  Also, he was drafted by the Dallas Stars so with him playing his 15 & 16 year old seasons they likely had some inside information.

Randomness

Player League Pts/G GP PTS
 Rinat Valiyev (D) USHL 0.36 36 13
 Dmitri Zaitsev (D) NAHL 0.42 53 22
 Mikhail Pashnin (D) Russia2 0.05 42 2
  • Three players were drafted in three separate leagues.
  • Valiyev was drafted as an overager.  He had a decent season in the USHL and could have been considered a late round pick.
  • Zaitsev was drafted out of the NAHL, which is a United States junior league.
  • Pashnin was drafted out of Russia2 which is a Russia (minor league) similar to the VHL.

Thoughts

  • I think that the Russian factor hasn’t had an effect on impact Canadian junior prospects (Zadorov, Kulikov, Provorov)
  • If a 17 year-old defenseman is playing in the KHL there’s a good chance he’s a quality prospect.
  • The MHL has been a mixed bag but players that are putting up decent offensive totals (.4+ PPG) are worth a mid-round pick.
  • The NHL like’s drafting big defenseman and the Russian’s have produced some big men.  Six of the twenty-five defenseman were between 6’5 – 6’8 in height!  The average Russian defenseman that was drafted was over 6’2 (74.4 inches).
  • Continuing with height 13 defensemen were between 6’1 – 6’4 and six defenseman were between 5’11 – 6′
  • My fav picks are Chudinov & Marchenko both performed excellent comparably to tother prospects and were chosen in the 7th round.

Russian Goalies

For this part I am going to look at the development path of the Russian goalies.

There were 11 Goalies drafted.  Vasilevsky at 19th overall was the earliest.  Ilya Samsonov was the only other first round pick.  By round here is the number of selections 2nd (0), 3rd (2), 4th & 5th (1), 6th (3) & 7th (2).

The average height of the goalies drafted was 6’2 1/2”.  Four of the goalies drafted were overagers.

I’ll take a look at the players progression in various leagues  from their draft year up until the age 23.  The goal is to identify which statistical variables too look for when drafting a goalie from Russia.  I will circle around and update some of the variables when I look at other European goalies (Czech, Slovakia, ect) that have played in Russian programs.

Here are some of the quick observations;

  • In the first year all goalies were drafted directly out of the top Russian junior league (MHL) the MHL has only been operating for 8 seasons so we don’t have much data on it yet.
  • A goalie should have a minimum SV% of .910 in his draft year in the MHL and should be close to .920.
  • International Tournaments Matter.  Seven of the eleven goalies drafted played in the U18 prior to being drafted.  The average SV% was .927.
  • Only three prospects played in the U20 – Vasilevsky, Samsonov & Bobkov as an 18 year-old.
  • Seven of the nine eligible prospects played in their final year of eligibility.
  • Andrei Vasilevsky is the gold standard.  He  played U20 during his 17 year old season and had a .953 SV%.  He played U17 in his 16 year old season compiled .936 SV%.  He played WC in his 19 year-old season and had a .985 SV%.  Vasilevsky is arguably the  best goalie prospect since Carey Price.
  • Ilya Samsonov had an superb second season compiling a .956 in World Juniors & .925 KHL Save Percentages this past season.  This year he is tracking ahed of Vasilevsky at the same age.
  • Outside of the two first round picks; Igor Shestyorkin (New York Rangers – 4th Rounder) & Ilya Sorokin (3rd Round New York Islanders Pick) are two prospects that are tracking well and worth keeping an eye on.
  • For first year overage goalie prospects they should be providing .920+ SV% in the MHL or playing in a pro league VHL (.915+ SV%) or KHL (.905+ SV%).
  • For two year overage they should be playing in a pro league VHL (.925 SV%)  or KHL (.910+ SV%)

Continue reading

Lucic Regression & Contract Thoughts

I pulled together a list of power forwards from the mid 90’s to today to look at the drop off in offensive production we should expect from Lucic during the contract.

Here is the list of players that I looked into;  Shane Doan, Ryan Clowe, Patrik Elias, Andrew Ladd, Dany Heatley, David Backes, Marion Hossa, Scott Hartnell, Brenden Morrow, Brendan Shanahan, Rick Nash, David Clarkson, Keith Tkachuk, Milan Michalek, Glen Murray, Todd Bertuzzi, Jarome Iginla, Ryan Smyth, Corey Perry, Owen Nolan, Justin Williams, Chris Kunitz, Ryan Kesler, Dustin Brown, Blake Wheeler, Michael Ryder, Joffery Lupul, Brandon Dubinsky.

The numbers were taken from hockey-reference.com, I looked predominately at wingers (exception of Backes & Kesler)  that had  .6 PPG prior to their 27th birthday (with the exception of David Clarkson), were 6’1+ (with the exception of Kunitz) and had a seasons with 50+ PIM’s.  I excluded Alex Ovechkin because I think he’s at an entirely different level as Lucic, I think we can all agree on that right?

There were three groups of players;

  • Players that have played until they were 34/35. (12.5)
    • Shane Doan, Patrik Elias, Marion Hossa, Brendan Morrow, Brendan Shanahan, Keith Tkachuk, Glen Murray, Todd Bertuzzi, Jarome Iginla,
      Ryan Smyth, Justin Williams (played til 34 this will be his 35th year), Chris Kunitz & Owen Nolan (.5 – I’ll explain the .5 in a minute)
  • Players that were either ineffective or injuried. (4.5)
    • Ryan Clowe, Dany Heatley, Joffery Lupul, Owen Nolan (.5)
  • Players that are currently active.  (12)
    • Milan Lucic, Andrew Ladd, David Backes, Scott Hartnell, Rick Nash, David Clarkson, Milan Michalek, Corey Perry, Ryan Kesler, Dustin Brown, Blake Wheeler, Brandon Dubinsky

Owen Nolan.  So Nolan had a clause in his contract that he would get paid during the lockout and a court battle ensued.  After the lockout Nolan sat out a year due to a ‘knee’ injury.  He came back for his 34 & 35th year.  Therefore I gave him a .5 because he didn’t play for two of his 27 – 33 years but he played the final 34 & 35 years.

Please note; the Points / G do not take into effect the games missed by the players during their seasons.  For example Todd Bertuzzi in the season he played at age 31 averaged .73 PPG but missed 67 PPG.  Part of that was I wanted to look at year to year productivity and part of it was I am lazy.

The Age is listed per Hockey-Reference.com.  Hockey Reference has the players age on Feb. 1st of the given hockey season.

About Lucic:

Milan Lucic averaged .68 Pts/G between his 22 birth year to his 27th birth year.  Lucic has been fairly healthy only missing 10 games in his 6 previous seasons in the NHL.  He is, as of now, a legit 1st line forward.  The questions that we need to answer is;

  • How much offensive regression should the Oiler’s expect?
  • How much time missed should we expect?
  • When should we expect the drop off?
  • Is he going to be worth that contract?
  • What about Hall?  (I will not answer that question!)

Here’s a look at the players comparisons 22 – 27 season.

Milan Lucic 0.78 0.75 0.59 0.74 0.54 0.68
Player 22 23 24 25 26 27
Shane Doan 0.28 0.63 0.83 0.6 0.71 0.86
Ryan Clowe 0.11 0.59 0.53 0.73 0.7
Patrik Elias 0.68 1 1.17 0.81 0.7 0.99
Andrew Ladd 0.48 0.6 0.46 0.73 0.61 0.96
Dany Heatley 1.16 0.81 1.26 1.28 1.15
David Backes 0.47 0.43 0.66 0.61 0.76 0.66
Marion Hossa 0.93 0.83 1 1.01 1.15
Scott Hartnell 0.59 0.61 0.54 0.73 0.54
Brendan Morrow 0.54 0.49 0.61 0.6 0.8
Brendan Shanahan 0.88 0.86 1.32 1.26 0.91 1.05
Rick Nash 0.76 0.86 1.01 0.88 0.88 0.72
David Clarkson 0.27 0.39 0.52 0.22 0.58
Keith Tkachuk 1.06 1.29 1.06 0.96 1 0.86
Milan Michalek 0.85 0.7 0.74 0.52 0.5 0.78
Glen Murray 0.2 0.42 0.39 0.74 0.51 0.79
Todd Bertuzzi 0.45 0.5 0.63 0.7 1.18 1.18
Jarome Iginla 0.82 0.92 1.17 0.89 0.9 0.82
Ryan Smyth 0.44 0.66 0.85 0.82 0.92 0.72
Corey Perry 0.77 0.92 0.93 1.2 0.75 0.82
Owen Nolan 1.07 0.85 0.88 0.55 0.58 1.08
Justin Williams 0.56 0.93 0.82 0.81 0.32
Chris Kunitz 0.59 0.74
Ryan Kesler 0.33 0.46 0.72 0.91 0.89 0.64
Dustin Brown 0.57 0.77 0.66 0.68 0.7 0.66
Blake Wheeler 0.56 0.46 0.54 0.8 0.85 0.84
Michael Ryder 0.78   0.68 0.71 0.44
Joffery Lupul 0.65 0.35 0.82 0.63 0.61 0.57
Brandon Dubinsky 0.5 0.64 0.7 0.44 0.69 0.66
  • The average PPG is .74 for the above list.  Lucic is within the range but a little behind.
  • Also, Clarkson should not be a comparison.
Player 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
Shane Doan 0.8 0.75 0.98 0.89 0.67 0.83 0.63
Ryan Clowe 0.83 0.59 0.48 0.77 0.31
Patrik Elias 1.18 0.92 0.74 1.01 0.83 0.77 0.96
Andrew Ladd 0.69 0.77 0.59
Dany Heatley 0.88 1 0.8 0.65 0.58 0.37
David Backes 0.58 0.77 0.73 0.57
Marion Hossa 1.22 0.92 0.96 0.89 0.88 0.95 0.78 0.83
Scott Hartnell 0.6 0.82 0.34 0.67 0.78 0.62
Brendan Morrow 0.78 0.9 0.83 0.61 0.68 0.46 0.57 0.35
Brendan Shanahan 1.09 0.76 0.72 1 0.94 0.94 0.87 0.65
Rick Nash 0.95 0.6 0.87 0.6
David Clarkson 0.5 0.18 0.25
Keith Tkachuk 1.04 1.03 0.98 0.95 0.88 0.73 0.73
Milan Michalek 0.61 0.48 0.52 0.36
Glen Murray 0.61 0.87 1.12 0.74 0.83 0.76 0.48
Todd Bertuzzi 0.87 0.87 0.73 0.59 0.67 0.54 0.56
Jarome Iginla 1.34 1.2 1.09 0.84 1.05 0.82 0.75
Ryan Smyth 0.88 0.96 0.67 0.77 0.79 0.57 0.56
Corey Perry 1.01 0.82 0.76
Owen Nolan 0.86 0.88 0.72 0.74 0.53 0.42
Justin Williams 0.59 0.78 0.72 0.69 0.52 0.51 0.63
Chris Kunitz 0.61 0.65 0.64 0.73 0.74 1.08 0.87 0.54
Ryan Kesler 0.76 0.56 0.58 0.67
Dustin Brown 0.63 0.34 0.33 0.34
Blake Wheeler 0.77 0.95
Michael Ryder 0.72 0.4 0.52 0.76 0.76 0.41 0.4
Joffery Lupul 1.02 1.13 0.64 0.38 0.3
Brandon Dubinsky 0.77 0.64
  • Here is how players played from their 28 – 35 years.
22 – 27 28-35  %
Shane Doan 0.651667 0.792857 121.7%
Ryan Clowe 0.532 0.596 112.0%
Patrik Elias 0.891667 0.915714 102.7%
Andrew Ladd 0.64 0.683333 106.8%
Dany Heatley 1.132 0.713333 63.0%
David Backes 0.598333 0.6625 110.7%
Marion Hossa 0.984 0.92875 94.4%
Scott Hartnell 0.602 0.638333 106.0%
Brendan Morrow 0.608 0.6475 106.5%
Brendan Shanahan 1.046667 0.87125 83.2%
Rick Nash 0.851667 0.755 88.6%
David Clarkson 0.396 0.31 78.3%
Keith Tkachuk 1.038333 0.905714 87.2%
Milan Michalek 0.681667 0.4925 72.2%
Glen Murray 0.508333 0.772857 152.0%
Todd Bertuzzi 0.773333 0.69 89.2%
Jarome Iginla 0.92 1.012857 110.1%
Ryan Smyth 0.735 0.742857 101.1%
Corey Perry 0.898333 0.863333 96.1%
Owen Nolan 0.835 0.691667 82.8%
Justin Williams 0.688 0.634286 92.2%
Chris Kunitz 0.665 0.7325 110.2%
Ryan Kesler 0.658333 0.6425 97.6%
Dustin Brown 0.673333 0.41 60.9%
Blake Wheeler 0.675 0.86 127.4%
Michael Ryder 0.6525 0.567143 86.9%
Joffery Lupul 0.605 0.694 114.7%
Brandon Dubinsky 0.605 0.705 116.5%
98.97%
  • On average a player aged 28 – 35 will produce 98.97% of his offensive production from his previous 22 – 27 seasons.  On averaged from Lucic’s 22nd – 27th year he would score 56 points if fully healthy for an 82 game schedule.  His production, based on averages would drop to a grand-total of 55.

The final two years!  I forgot to put the headings on this chart.  The first is the name, second is the 22 – 33 years, third is the 34 – 35 years and the final one is the 34-35 season divided by 22 – 33 years.  Essentially how much offense have they retained versus their career.

Shane Doan 0.727273 0.73 100.38%
Patrik Elias 0.911818 0.865 94.87%
Marion Hossa 0.976364 0.805 82.45%
Brenden Morrow 0.663636 0.46 69.32%
Brendan Shanahan 0.9775 0.76 77.75%
Keith Tkachuk 1.01 0.73 72.28%
Glen Murray 0.656364 0.62 94.46%
Todd Bertuzzi 0.760909 0.55 72.28%
Jarome Iginla 1.003636 0.785 78.22%
Ryan Smyth 0.770909 0.565 73.29%
Justin Williams 0.821 0.475 57.86%
Chris Kunitz 0.659091 0.63 95.59%
Average 80.73%
  • On average a player a players production would drop by 19.27% in his 34th – 35th years compared to their 22nd – 33rd years.

A player in their 28th – 33rd season can expect to produce at 96% compared to their 24th – 27th season.  I didn’t add the chart, but looked at the numbers.  What’s interesting with Lucic is his 22 & 23 years were his better years.

What should we expect from Lucic?

Based on the players listed above Lucic’s projected points, barring injuries, per game during the life of the contract should be between .65 PPG for the first five seasons and then drop to .54 PPG during the last two years of the deal.

Now this doesn’t factor in that Lucic is likely going to play with McDavid.  So I’d expect those totals to increase but I don’t have any decent stats to back it up.  That was the reason I looked at Chris Kunitz.  Kunitz before being paired with Crosby in Pittsburg put up .61 PPG in Anahiem and since the move to Pittsburgh he’s now averaging .72 PPG.  That number includes his last two seasons (age 35 & 36) which his PPG has dropped to .54 & .51.

Putting everything into consideration if Lucic finds chemistry with McDavid, I think he should realistically expect a 10 – 20% bump in producitivty.  So let’s give him a 10% bump from his projected numbers without McDavid.  I will guess the first 5 years of the deal he should average over .70 Pts/G, if he or McDavid do not have any major injuries.

The Contract Still Sucks!

The current CBA is done in Sept 2022.  But there could be a change to the agreement as early as Sept. 2019.  Per Yahoo – This CBA is a 10-year agreement, but both can choose to opt out after 8 years. The NHL will have first crack to do so by Sept. 1, 2019. If they decline, the NHLPA can decide to opt out by Sept. 19, 2019. The 10-year deal expires Sept. 15, 2022. There’s actually a potential lockout date as early as 2019.  Perhaps the Oiler’s buy-out the last year(s) of the deal if the NHL has another amnesty buy-out after the expiration of the CBA.  Which would essentially be a get out of jail free on the last year(s) of the deal.  A potential lockout was already brought up by Brooksie.

Also, the Cap should go up by roughly 10 million during the last two years of the deal.Cap Projections have the Cap going up by roughly 3% for the last three years.

  • 2016-17 – 73
  • 2017-18 – 75
  • 2018-19 – 77
  • 2018-20 – 79
  • 2020-21 – 81
  • 2021-22 – 83
  • 2022-23 – 85.5

So although there is going to be an estimated 20% drop in player productivity in the final two years of the deal.  There is an estimated  13.5% & 17% increase in cap space for the final two years of the deal.  Those are likely conservative numbers too considering the current Canadian dollar and expansion.There is risk with the contract.  I think there is risk with any contract but I consider this to be a 5 year deal rather than the 7 years it’s reported as.  The final two years he has a 8 / 10 team lists for the final two years of the contract.  So there’s a chance that he could be dealt to a team needing cap space.The Body Will Break Down

  • I looked at the 12 players that have played til 35 to compare the number of games they missed from their 22-27 seasons, 28-35 seasons, 28 – 33 seasons & 34 35 seasons.
  • The numbers were interesting;
Player 22 – 27 28 – 35 28 – 33 34 – 35
Shane Doan 2.33 3.43 2.20 6.50
Patrik Elias 4.33 12.86 17.60 1.00
Marion Hossa 1.60 9.88 10.17 9.00
Brenden Morrow 17.50 19.00 22.83 7.50
Brendan Shanahan 5.33 2.50 2.67 2.00
Keith Tkachuk 11.00 13.57 17.80 3.00
Glen Murray 9.50 11.29 7.40 21.00
Todd Bertuzzi 12.17 15.86 22.00 0.50
Jarome Iginla 3.60 2.00 2.00 2.00
Ryan Smyth 8.00 9.29 13.00 0.00
Justin Williams 17.20 6.14 7.17 0.00
Chris Kunitz 7.00 9.38 8.00 13.50
Average 8.30 9.60 11.07 5.50

I honestly went into this thinking that here is where you would lose value in signing Lucic.  But the data that I pulled doesn’t look that way.  Now, I know that I have removed Lupul & Clowe from the data pool but if a player is on LTIR his cap hit doesn’t count after the start of the season.  Meaning you can hide those dollars.  I would have thought that there would have been more games missed by after a player after turning 28.

Now, I know the data sample is a little low but it’s what I’ve got.

I think that people are assuming that Lucic will completely fall apart.  With most people that’s not the case.  In fact the 34 – 35 year seasons the players were relatively healthy, their production dropped.

Estimated Production

How much does 35 million (real money for the first 5 years) of Katz’s money get us from a production standpoint?  My projected total for the first 5 seasons of Lucic’s deal, which I think is what Chia bought,  is:

360 GP – 105 G – 155 A -260 PTS  (Average season is 72 Games Played with 20 Goal & 52 Points)

What do you think is that worth 7 Million a season?

The final two years (assuming there isn’t a lockout).  There will be a 6 million dollar cap (but only 4.5 million in real dollars) for a 16/17 goal scorer.

144 GP – 33 G – 49 A – 82 PTS

Is it a bad signing?  I’m not sure that I love with the last two years.  I don’t think the signing is as bad as some people are making it out to be.

These are conservative estimates.

Let’s take a look at an optimistic point of view.  There is a chance that Lucic doesn’t miss 10 games a year, based on his history he’s just as likely to miss 10 games in the first 5 years of the contract.  Using Kunitz as a comparison playing with Crosby (& to a certain extent Malkin) during his 29 – 34 the Penguins Left Winger saw a 30% increase in production.  I only did a 10% increase for Lucic.  Let’s say on the positive side that Lucic will see roughly a 35% increase in man-games lost.  That’s just over two games a season rather than the (10 games I projected).  Let’s also use the 30% increase in point production playing with a generational talent during his 24 – 33 season.  That increases his; games to  points per game to .83 and decreases his games lost to 11 total.

  • Games:  399 (80)
  • Goals: 132 (26)
  • Assists: 199 (40)
  • Points 331  (66)

 

 

 

 

 

1-4-1

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  1. One for One I think this is a loss for the Oiler’s.  New Jersey receives the better player.
  2. Chiarelli has a good track record with defenseman (I understand the concern on Reinhart)
    1. Johnny Boychuck
    2. Andrew Ference
    3. Dennis Wideman
    4. Aaron Ward
    5. Dennis Seidenberg
    6. Zdeno Chara – A lot of people say this was before Chiarelli officially started with the Bruins.  Come on really?  The assistant GM goes to Boston and then signs the biggest free agent from his old team.  Also, most people in Ottawa figured that Redden was the better defenseman at the time.
  3. If it came down to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for Matt Dumba versus Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson that’s a tough decision.  Hall is the better player but I think that Larsson is ahead of Dumba at this time.  Although Dumba might be a better offensive defenseman.  I would have kept Hall but I wonder if that’s me.
  4. I wonder do the Oilers value Nuge more Hall.  Chiarelli might like Nuge’s game more than Hall’s.
  5. What makes the team better?  Nuge+Larsson or Hall+Dumba?  I would believe Hall plus Dumba but …  There’s also the chance that Nuge also get’s dealt.  There’s a chance Nuge get’s dealt and this means diddly-poo.
  6. The Oiler’s still don’t have an offensive defenseman a player that can run the PP and signing Demers won’t really fix that.  If I were the Oiler’s I’d be looking at Ryan Murphy from the Hurricanes.  Perhaps they look at stop gap players like Wideman.
  7. How much motivation should this be for Eberle?  He wasn’t bringing in any defenseman that played in a top 4, his best friend on the team has been dealt and I’m doubtful he’s seen as a ‘core’ piece anymore.  Eberle has been given ample opportunity and his value right now is at an all time low.  Hopefully he can turn this around.
  8. Last point.  Adam Larsson is a top pairing 5×5 defenseman.  All you have to do is look at his opposition.  Here are Adam Larsson’s top opposition for the past two seasons per stats.hockeyanalysis.com.  Here are the opponents numbers are Against / Not Against.
  • The first number is the CorsiFor increase (positive number) or decrease (negative number) the player had when not paired against Adam Larsson versus when he was against Adam Larsson.  Is the player getting more shots when he doesn’t face Adam Larsson.  For Oiler fans you want a positive number
  • The second number CA is CorsiAgainst/60 increase (positive number) / decrease (negative number).  Is the player allowing more/less shots against when he doesn’t face Adam Larsson?  If your the Oiler’s you want a negative number.
  • The third number is CF% for the player when he’s not against the Oilers subtracted by the CF% when he’s on the ice against the Oilers.  If your an Oiler’s fan you want a positive number.
  • For example Crosby, who is a pretty good player, had
    • 66.14 CF/60 (when not against Larsson) – 36.1 CF/60 (when against Larsson)
    • 51.34 CA/60 (when not against Larsson) minus 55.95 CA/60 (when against Larsson)
    • 55.5 CF% (when not against Larsson minus 39.2 CF% (when against Larsson)
Player CF CA CF%
CROSBY, SIDNEY 28.04 -4.61 16.3
FOLIGNO, NICK -4.34 2.43 -3.2
STEPAN, DEREK 12.78 3.03 5.3
ATKINSON, CAM 2.13 22.2 -10.7
PACIORETTY, MAX 40.45 6.93 20.4
KREIDER, CHRIS 20.06 -0.86 11.1
OVECHKIN, ALEX 24.55 -1.22 12.8
STAAL, JORDAN 30.55 -13.87 23.2
ZUCCARELLO, MATS 19.76 -8.06 14
GIROUX, CLAUDE 25.04 5.63 10.2
LINDHOLM, ELIAS 31.69 -1.54 18.5
BAILEY, JOSH 2.18 13.15 -5.4
OKPOSO, KYLE 17.59 -7.11 11.6
HUBERDEAU, JONATHAN 22.11 1.47 12.4
BARKOV, ALEKSANDER 25.17 -0.7 16
SCHENN, BRAYDEN 29.29 -0.53 17.1
BERGERON, PATRICE 24.1 -34.81 24.5
PLEKANEC, TOMAS 33.8 -7.59 22.6
VORACEK, JAKUB 27.01 -1.87 15.1
WILLIAMS, JUSTIN 14.06 -9.47 10.8
PERRY, COREY 35.75 5.66 21.1
GETZLAF, RYAN 27.02 7.26 11.5
JOHANSEN, RYAN 7.67 2.79 2.5
RASK, VICTOR 15.34 3.81 5.8
KUZNETSOV, EVGENY 15.46 -4.13 9.9
NEAL, JAMES 27.33 5.94 11.1
JENNER, BOONE 9.45 21.14 -5.9
KOPITAR, ANZE 24.21 2.79 10.3
SAAD, BRANDON 25.12 21.22 1.7
DUBINSKY, BRANDON 5.73 19.04 -7.6
JAGR, JAROMIR 27.53 -8.76 21.7
KUNITZ, CHRIS 33.63 -6.03 20.7
HARTNELL, SCOTT 3.58 9.05 -2.8
BRASSARD, DERICK 15.73 2.61 7
MARCHAND, BRAD 28.78 -35.47 26.4
PERRON, DAVID 28.88 -4.68 18.5
SIMMONDS, WAYNE 19.25 19.93 -1.4
HORNQVIST, PATRIC 16.96 -9.47 12.2
HAGELIN, CARL 28.49 5.55 13.3
BACKSTROM, NICKLAS 18.05 12.55 2.1
TAVARES, JOHN 8.84 -4.19 5.5
SKINNER, JEFF 2.64 16.03 -7.4
RIBEIRO, MIKE 17.72 -5.16 10.3
NORDSTROM, JOAKIM 20.94 -1.92 13.6
STAAL, ERIC 37.45 -7.63 24.5
KESSEL, PHIL 24.14 10.18 8.4
MILLER, J.T. 3.14 10.63 -3.8
GALCHENYUK, ALEX 16.16 -17.25 14.1
ENNIS, TYLER -12.08 22.3 -15.9
LUCIC, MILAN 2.07 5.03 -1.7
GALLAGHER, BRENDAN 35.36 -18.18 25
NELSON, BROCK -3.96 5.95 -4.5
MOULSON, MATT -11.34 17.77 -14.1
GAUDREAU, JOHNNY -4.38 11.66 -7.5
KOMAROV, LEO 31.61 4.38 17.5
KANE, PATRICK 27.09 -6.31 17.7
ZETTERBERG, HENRIK 14.25 21.86 -7.2
RYAN, BOBBY 21.9 -1.62 13
JOHANSSON, MARCUS 2.22 1.64 0.2
RAFFL, MICHAEL 37.05 -27.97 31.2
HAYES, KEVIN 29.92 15.11 11.5
MONAHAN, SEAN -1.46 9.93 -5.1
ZIBANEJAD, MIKA 25.43 0.04 14.2
LANDESKOG, GABRIEL 17.07 13.4 3.3
FAST, JESPER 11.69 16.1 -2.5
DESHARNAIS, DAVID 19.39 1.72 9.2
SEDIN, DANIEL 20.89 -19.16 19.7
ABDELKADER, JUSTIN 14.72 20.64 -6.1
SEDIN, HENRIK 21.56 -19.93 20.2
DATSYUK, PAVEL 23.1 -3.48 13.9
O_REILLY, RYAN 16.34 10.81 4.3
NESTRASIL, ANDREJ 33.25 -10.7 24.5
WINNIK, DANIEL 12.67 11.45 0.6
GRANLUND, MIKAEL 14.16 7 3.6
BURAKOVSKY, ANDRE 4.35 11.79 -4.2
TATAR, TOMAS 16.76 7.38 3.5
KADRI, NAZEM 36.01 -7.94 24
STROME, RYAN -0.8 8.68 -4.3
PAVELSKI, JOE 22.78 13.59 3.1
DOAN, SHANE 6.12 -4.61 4.7
ERIKSSON, LOUI 20.42 -10.63 15.3
THORNTON, JOE 28.03 18.36 2.1
WILSON, COLIN 19.65 -11.32 14.4
GRABOVSKI, MIKHAIL 9.45 6.16 1.2
HUDLER, JIRI 2.37 12.81 -5.1
DUCHENE, MATT 5.93 -2.37 3.9
ELLER, LARS 6.91 8.94 -1.1
TARASENKO, VLADIMIR 25.7 4.37 11.2
NIELSEN, FRANS 7.08 -11.55 7.8
FORSBERG, FILIP 32.55 -2.51 17.9
SMITH, REILLY 8.12 -4.43 6
PARISE, ZACH 8.59 10.29 -1.1
ANISIMOV, ARTEM 33.21 17.6 12.9
TERRY, CHRIS 11.3 14.38 -1.8
STEEN, ALEXANDER 7.47 -0.54 3.7
CULLEN, MATT 10.53 -0.04 5.2
LEE, ANDERS 10.85 9.07 0.3
MALKIN, EVGENI 16.9 0.91 7.4
SHEAHAN, RILEY 5.38 8.79 -2.6

Here’s the data pulled from stats.hockeyanalysis.com

LARSSON When on ice Against Opponent not against LARSSON
Player TOI CF60 CA60 CF% TOI CF60 CA60 CF%
CROSBY, SIDNEY 66:29:00 36.1 55.95 39.2 2278:46:00 64.14 51.34 55.5
FOLIGNO, NICK 55:02:00 57.78 49.06 54.1 2026:35:00 53.44 51.49 50.9
STEPAN, DEREK 52:31:00 41.13 55.98 42.4 1776:18:00 53.91 59.01 47.7
ATKINSON, CAM 52:14:00 53.99 36.76 59.5 1980:13:00 56.12 58.96 48.8
PACIORETTY, MAX 51:27:00 24.49 48.98 33.3 2165:33:00 64.94 55.91 53.7
KREIDER, CHRIS 50:27:00 36.87 57.09 39.2 2052:04:00 56.93 56.23 50.3
OVECHKIN, ALEX 48:26:00 38.4 55.75 40.8 2351:34:00 62.95 54.53 53.6
STAAL, JORDAN 47:28:00 30.34 60.67 33.3 1763:58:00 60.89 46.8 56.5
ZUCCARELLO, MATS 46:49:00 35.88 62.8 36.4 2263:36:00 55.64 54.74 50.4
GIROUX, CLAUDE 46:43:00 37.25 50.09 42.6 2255:54:00 62.29 55.72 52.8
LINDHOLM, ELIAS 46:42:00 29.55 53.96 35.4 2128:59:00 61.24 52.42 53.9
BAILEY, JOSH 45:18:00 58.28 45.03 56.4 2027:34:00 60.46 58.18 51
OKPOSO, KYLE 44:52:00 42.79 61.52 41 1971:33:00 60.38 54.41 52.6
HUBERDEAU, JONATHAN 44:17:00 31.16 51.49 37.7 2077:55:00 53.27 52.96 50.1
BARKOV, ALEKSANDER 43:40:00 27.48 52.21 34.5 1840:17:00 52.65 51.51 50.5
SCHENN, BRAYDEN 43:27:00 29 58 33.3 2054:40:00 58.29 57.47 50.4
BERGERON, PATRICE 42:48:00 40.65 82.71 33 2086:41:00 64.75 47.9 57.5
PLEKANEC, TOMAS 42:01:00 25.7 64.26 28.6 2184:17:00 59.5 56.67 51.2
VORACEK, JAKUB 42:01:00 34.27 55.69 38.1 2115:58:00 61.28 53.82 53.2
WILLIAMS, JUSTIN 40:29:00 47.43 59.28 44.4 2128:17:00 61.49 49.81 55.2
PERRY, COREY 40:17:00 20.85 47.66 30.4 2048:12:00 56.6 53.32 51.5
GETZLAF, RYAN 39:46:00 31.68 43.76 42 2141:19:00 58.7 51.02 53.5
JOHANSEN, RYAN 39:21:00 45.74 53.37 46.2 2219:56:00 53.41 56.16 48.7
RASK, VICTOR 38:56:00 43.15 50.86 45.9 1997:21:00 58.49 54.67 51.7
KUZNETSOV, EVGENY 38:48:00 40.21 57.22 41.3 2025:11:00 55.67 53.09 51.2
NEAL, JAMES 38:28:00 35.88 45.23 44.2 2153:51:00 63.21 51.17 55.3
JENNER, BOONE 38:16:00 43.9 39.2 52.8 1510:27:00 53.35 60.34 46.9
KOPITAR, ANZE 38:01:00 39.46 42.61 48.1 2255:59:00 63.67 45.4 58.4
SAAD, BRANDON 37:04:00 33.99 33.99 50 2105:13:00 59.11 55.21 51.7
DUBINSKY, BRANDON 37:03:00 51.82 37.25 58.2 1575:18:00 57.55 56.29 50.6
JAGR, JAROMIR 36:28:00 24.68 57.59 30 2144:21:00 52.21 48.83 51.7
KUNITZ, CHRIS 36:19:00 31.39 56.17 35.8 2080:59:00 65.02 50.14 56.5
HARTNELL, SCOTT 36:10:00 53.09 46.45 53.3 2039:06:00 56.67 55.5 50.5
BRASSARD, DERICK 35:59:00 40.02 53.36 42.9 2181:30:00 55.75 55.97 49.9
MARCHAND, BRAD 35:58:00 36.7 86.75 29.7 2082:51:00 65.48 51.28 56.1
PERRON, DAVID 35:46:00 30.2 55.36 35.3 1985:29:00 59.08 50.68 53.8
SIMMONDS, WAYNE 35:33:00 40.51 35.44 53.3 1953:41:00 59.76 55.37 51.9
HORNQVIST, PATRIC 35:17:00 45.91 59.52 43.5 1919:10:00 62.87 50.05 55.7
HAGELIN, CARL 34:51:00 30.99 46.48 40 2069:57:00 59.48 52.03 53.3
BACKSTROM, NICKLAS 34:49:00 43.08 41.36 51 2253:40:00 61.13 53.91 53.1
TAVARES, JOHN 34:47:00 55.2 60.37 47.8 2457:32:00 64.04 56.18 53.3
SKINNER, JEFF 34:18:00 54.23 38.48 58.5 2082:31:00 56.87 54.51 51.1
RIBEIRO, MIKE 34:07:00 47.48 54.52 46.6 2294:56:00 65.2 49.36 56.9
NORDSTROM, JOAKIM 33:31:00 30.43 53.7 36.2 1304:42:00 51.37 51.78 49.8
STAAL, ERIC 33:25:00 26.93 57.46 31.9 2328:50:00 64.38 49.83 56.4
KESSEL, PHIL 32:34:00 35.01 49.74 41.3 2247:58:00 59.15 59.92 49.7
MILLER, J.T. 32:13:00 52.15 44.7 53.8 1715:35:00 55.29 55.33 50
GALCHENYUK, ALEX 31:48:00 45.28 73.58 38.1 2082:12:00 61.44 56.33 52.2
ENNIS, TYLER 31:31:00 55.21 45.69 54.7 1457:58:00 43.13 67.99 38.8
LUCIC, MILAN 31:19:00 61.31 45.98 57.1 2251:07:00 63.38 51.01 55.4
GALLAGHER, BRENDAN 31:10:00 30.8 73.16 29.6 1759:19:00 66.16 54.98 54.6
NELSON, BROCK 31:03:00 61.84 50.24 55.2 1955:04:00 57.88 56.19 50.7
MOULSON, MATT 31:02:00 58 42.53 57.7 1843:55:00 46.66 60.3 43.6
GAUDREAU, JOHNNY 30:37:00 58.79 47.03 55.6 2270:27:00 54.41 58.69 48.1
KOMAROV, LEO 30:35:00 25.5 51.01 33.3 1567:22:00 57.11 55.39 50.8
KANE, PATRICK 30:09:00 31.84 59.7 34.8 2184:52:00 58.93 53.39 52.5
ZETTERBERG, HENRIK 29:43:00 38.36 26.25 59.4 2309:30:00 52.61 48.11 52.2
RYAN, BOBBY 29:31:00 32.52 60.98 34.8 2066:09:00 54.42 59.36 47.8
JOHANSSON, MARCUS 29:23:00 53.09 51.05 51 1966:46:00 55.31 52.69 51.2
RAFFL, MICHAEL 29:13:00 24.64 78.04 24 1852:45:00 61.69 50.07 55.2
HAYES, KEVIN 29:00:00 24.83 39.31 38.7 1822:22:00 54.75 54.42 50.2
MONAHAN, SEAN 28:24:00 54.93 50.7 52 2286:56:00 53.47 60.63 46.9
ZIBANEJAD, MIKA 28:19:00 31.78 59.33 34.9 1997:01:00 57.21 59.37 49.1
LANDESKOG, GABRIEL 28:06:00 36.3 46.98 43.6 2174:09:00 53.37 60.38 46.9
FAST, JESPER 28:03:00 40.64 38.5 51.4 1539:42:00 52.33 54.6 48.9
DESHARNAIS, DAVID 27:50:00 38.8 53.89 41.9 1953:00:00 58.19 55.61 51.1
SEDIN, DANIEL 27:44:00 32.45 69.23 31.9 2178:45:00 53.34 50.07 51.6
ABDELKADER, JUSTIN 27:32:00 37.05 26.15 58.6 1997:57:00 51.77 46.79 52.5
SEDIN, HENRIK 27:28:00 32.77 69.9 31.9 2079:40:00 54.33 49.97 52.1
DATSYUK, PAVEL 27:21:00 37.29 46.07 44.7 1901:47:00 60.39 42.59 58.6
O_REILLY, RYAN 27:09:00 35.36 46.41 43.2 2183:11:00 51.7 57.22 47.5
NESTRASIL, ANDREJ 27:06:00 26.57 57.56 31.6 1314:53:00 59.82 46.86 56.1
WINNIK, DANIEL 26:53:00 42.41 42.41 50 1861:32:00 55.08 53.86 50.6
GRANLUND, MIKAEL 26:47:00 44.8 49.28 47.6 2058:46:00 58.96 56.28 51.2
BURAKOVSKY, ANDRE 26:45:00 56.07 42.62 56.8 1517:30:00 60.42 54.41 52.6
TATAR, TOMAS 26:41:00 42.72 35.98 54.3 1953:59:00 59.48 43.36 57.8
KADRI, NAZEM 26:40:00 24.75 65.25 27.5 2083:33:00 60.76 57.31 51.5
STROME, RYAN 26:24:00 63.64 50 56 1863:53:00 62.84 58.68 51.7
PAVELSKI, JOE 26:21:00 40.99 36.43 52.9 2330:33:00 63.77 50.02 56
DOAN, SHANE 26:20:00 50.13 63.8 44 2079:55:00 56.25 59.19 48.7
ERIKSSON, LOUI 25:52:00 37.11 62.63 37.2 2201:44:00 57.53 52 52.5
THORNTON, JOE 25:48:00 37.21 30.23 55.2 2176:54:00 65.24 48.59 57.3
WILSON, COLIN 25:43:00 42 62.99 40 1767:31:00 61.65 51.67 54.4
GRABOVSKI, MIKHAIL 25:31:00 51.73 49.38 51.2 1318:03:00 61.18 55.54 52.4
HUDLER, JIRI 25:20:00 49.74 45 52.5 1949:10:00 52.11 57.81 47.4
DUCHENE, MATT 25:19:00 45.03 66.36 40.4 2285:07:00 50.96 63.99 44.3
ELLER, LARS 25:17:00 47.46 45.09 51.3 1939:57:00 54.37 54.03 50.2
TARASENKO, VLADIMIR 25:02:00 35.95 47.94 42.9 2176:03:00 61.65 52.31 54.1
NIELSEN, FRANS 25:01:00 52.76 67.16 44 1815:50:00 59.84 55.61 51.8
FORSBERG, FILIP 24:59:00 33.62 52.84 38.9 2197:02:00 66.17 50.33 56.8
SMITH, REILLY 24:36:00 48.78 53.66 47.6 2072:05:00 56.9 49.23 53.6
PARISE, ZACH 24:32:00 51.36 46.47 52.5 2014:38:00 59.95 56.76 51.4
ANISIMOV, ARTEM 24:22:00 22.16 36.94 37.5 1664:27:00 55.37 54.54 50.4
TERRY, CHRIS 24:03:00 42.41 39.92 51.5 1329:19:00 53.71 54.3 49.7
STEEN, ALEXANDER 23:59 50.03 55.04 47.6 1956:29:00 57.5 54.5 51.3
CULLEN, MATT 23:58 45.06 52.57 46.2 1553:15:00 55.59 52.53 51.4
LEE, ANDERS 23:57 52.61 47.6 52.5 1811:34:00 63.46 56.67 52.8
MALKIN, EVGENI 23:53 45.22 50.24 47.4 1761:50:00 62.12 51.15 54.8
SHEAHAN, RILEY 23:48 47.9 37.82 55.9 1851:17:00 53.28 46.61 53.3

Russian Draft (10 Year Look Back)

In the last 10 years there were 100 Russian’s selected in the NHL entry draft.  The average team has selected just over 3 Russians.  The Oiler’s surprisingly, have selected more Russians than your averaged team.

  • NHL averages 10 Russians per draft in various leagues.  By eye it looks like an even split between the MHL, KHL & CHL.  I will have a deeper look later on.
  • There has been an increase in Russian drafted players the last three years: 2014 (13 Russians drafted), 2015 (18) & 2016 (17).
  • There were 11 goalies, 25 defenseman & 64 Russian players selected.
  • The breakdown by teams; Capitals (7 Russians selected), Kings, Islanders, Flyers & Lightning (6), Oilers, Rangers, Leafs (5), Panthers, Canadiens, Blues, Thrashers/Jets (4), Sabres, Hawks, Blue Jackets, Red Wings, Predators, Penguins, Sharks, Stars (3), Bruins, Flames, Avalanche, Wild, Devils, Canucks (2), Ducks, Coyotes (1) & Hurricanes & Senators (0)
  • The ‘Russian factor’ hasn’t impacted first round selections.  There have been 20 Russians selected in the first 30 selections.  Russians are also more likely to be selected in the final 30 picks in the NHL entry draft.

Here is a list of the Russian drafted players, the team that drafted them and their draft number.

# Team Player
76 Anaheim Ducks  Igor Bobkov (G)
28 Arizona Coyotes  Viktor Tikhonov (W/C)
8 Atlanta Thrashers  Alexander Burmistrov (C/W)
101 Atlanta Thrashers  Ivan Telegin (W/C)
40 Boston Bruins  Alexander Khokhlachev (C/W)
195 Boston Bruins  Maxim Chudinov (D)
12 Buffalo Sabres  Mikhail Grigorenko (C/W)
16 Buffalo Sabres  Nikita Zadorov (D)
190 Buffalo Sabres  Vasili Glotov (LW)
136 Calgary Flames  Pavel Karnaukhov (LW/C)
187 Calgary Flames  Rushan Rafikov (D)
50 Chicago Blackhawks  Artur Kayumov (LW)
109 Chicago Blackhawks  Maxim Shalunov (RW/C)
179 Chicago Blackhawks  Ivan Nalimov (G)
101 Colorado Avalanche  Andrei Mironov (D)
161 Colorado Avalanche  Sergei Boikov (D)
6 Columbus Blue Jackets  Nikita Filatov (LW/RW)
65 Columbus Blue Jackets  Vitali Abramov (RW/LW)
159 Columbus Blue Jackets  Vladislav Gavrikov (D)
10 Dallas Stars  Valeri Nichushkin (RW/LW)
12 Dallas Stars  Denis Guryanov (RW/LW)
183 Dallas Stars  Dmitri Sinitsyn (D)
19 Detroit Red Wings  Yevgeni Svechnikov (LW/RW)
201 Detroit Red Wings  Alexander Kadeykin (C
205 Detroit Red Wings  Alexei Marchenko (D)
1 Edmonton Oilers  Nail Yakupov (RW/LW)
83 Edmonton Oilers  Bogdan Yakimov (C)
88 Edmonton Oilers  Anton Slepyshev (LW/RW)
91 Edmonton Oilers  Daniil Zharkov (LW)
209 Edmonton Oilers  Ziyat Paigin (D)
14 Florida Panthers  Dmitri Kulikov (D)
114 Florida Panthers  Alexander Delnov (LW/RW)
124 Florida Panthers  Yaroslav Kosov (LW/RW)
175 Florida Panthers  Maxim Mamin (LW/RW)
32 Los Angeles Kings  Vyacheslav Voynov (D)
37 Los Angeles Kings  Valentin Zykov (LW/RW)
74 Los Angeles Kings  Alexander Dergachyov (C/RW)
121 Los Angeles Kings  Nikolai Prokhorkin (LW/C)
123 Los Angeles Kings  Andrei Loktionov (C)
158 Los Angeles Kings  Maxim Kitsyn (LW)
135 Minnesota Wild  Kirill Kaprizov (LW/RW)
196 Minnesota Wild  Dmitri Sokolov (C/W)
9 Montréal Canadiens  Mikhail Sergachyov (D)
26 Montréal Canadiens  Nikita Scherbak (RW/LW)
109 Montréal Canadiens  Alexander Avtsin (RW)
138 Montréal Canadiens  Maxim Trunyov (RW/LW)
42 Nashville Predators  Vladislav Kamenev (C/LW)
55 Nashville Predators  Yakov Trenin (C/LW)
168 Nashville Predators  Konstantin Volkov (G)
102 New Jersey Devils  Mikhail Maltsev (LW)
132 New Jersey Devils  Yegor Rykov (D)
63 New York Islanders  Andrey Pedan (D)
65 New York Islanders  Kirill Kabanov (RW/LW)
73 New York Islanders  Kirill Petrov (RW/LW)
78 New York Islanders  Ilya Sorokin (G)
95 New York Islanders  Anatoli Golyshev (LW/RW)
122 New York Islanders  Anton Klementyev (D)
75 New York Rangers  Pavel Buchnevich (W/C)
75 New York Rangers  Yevgeni Grachyov (C/W)
79 New York Rangers  Sergei Zborovsky (D)
118 New York Rangers  Igor Shestyorkin (G)
200 New York Rangers  Mikhail Pashnin (D)
7 Philadelphia Flyers  Ivan Provorov (D)
22 Philadelphia Flyers  German Rubtsov (C)
104 Philadelphia Flyers  Mikhail Vorobyov (C)
168 Philadelphia Flyers  Radel Fazleyev (C/W)
188 Philadelphia Flyers  Ivan Fedotov (G)
201 Philadelphia Flyers  Valeri Vasilyev (D)
150 Pittsburgh Penguins  Alexander Pechursky (G)
173 Pittsburgh Penguins  Anton Zlobin (RW/LW)
197 Pittsburgh Penguins  Nikita Pavlychev (C)
27 San Jose Sharks  Nikolai Goldobin (LW/RW)
166 San Jose Sharks  Daniil Sobchenko (C)
207 San Jose Sharks  Emil Galimov (RW)
16 St. Louis Blues  Vladimir Tarasenko (RW)
33 St. Louis Blues  Ivan Barbashyov (C/LW)
52 St. Louis Blues  Maxim Letunov (C)
78 St. Louis Blues  Sergei Andronov (W/C)
19 Tampa Bay Lightning  Andrei Vasilevsky (G)
27 Tampa Bay Lightning  Vladislav Namestnikov (C/LW)
58 Tampa Bay Lightning  Nikita Kucherov (RW)
148 Tampa Bay Lightning  Nikita Nesterov (D)
178 Tampa Bay Lightning  Oleg Sosunov (D)
202 Tampa Bay Lightning  Nikita Gusev (LW)
31 Toronto Maple Leafs  Yegor Korshkov (RW)
68 Toronto Maple Leafs  Rinat Valiyev (D)
122 Toronto Maple Leafs  Vladimir Bobylyov (W/C)
182 Toronto Maple Leafs  Nikolai Chebykin (RW/LW)
185 Toronto Maple Leafs  Nikita Korostelev (RW/LW)
66 Vancouver Canucks  Nikita Tryamkin (D)
114 Vancouver Canucks  Dmitri Zhukenov (C)
22 Washington Capitals  Ilya Samsonov (G)
26 Washington Capitals  Yevgeni Kuznetsov (C)
55 Washington Capitals  Dmitri Orlov (D)
58 Washington Capitals  Dmitri Kugryshev (RW/LW)
86 Washington Capitals  Stanislav Galiev (RW/LW)
203 Washington Capitals  Sergei Kostenko (G)
207 Washington Capitals  Dmitri Zaitsev (D)
157 Winnipeg Jets  Mikhail Berdin (G)
164 Winnipeg Jets  Pavel Kraskovsky (C)

Here are the number of players selected from 1st – 7th round.  Please note that based on whethre there was a compensation picks or not there might been selections in later rounds.

Draft # # of Selections
1 – 30 20
31 – 60 12
61 – 90 16
91 – 120 11
121 – 150 11
151 – 180 12
181 + 18

There were 11 goalies; Igor Bobkov (G), Ivan Nalimov (G), Konstantin Volkov (G), Ilya Sorokin (G), Ivan Fedotov (G), Igor Shestyorkin (G), Alexander Pechursky (G), Andrei Vasilevsky (G), Ilya Samsonov (G), Sergei Kostenko (G) & Mikhail Berdin (G).

There are 25 defenseman – Maxim Chudinov (D), Nikita Zadorov (D), Rushan Rafikov (D), Andrei Mironov (D),  Sergei Boikov (D), Vladislav Gavrikov (D), Dmitri Sinitsyn (D), Alexei Marchenko (D), Ziyat Paigin (D), Dmitri Kulikov (D),  Vyacheslav Voynov (D), Mikhail Sergachyov (D), Yegor Rykov (D), Andrey Pedan (D), Anton Klementyev (D), Sergei Zborovsky (D), Mikhail Pashnin (D), Ivan Provorov (D), Valeri Vasilyev (D), Nikita Nesterov (D), Oleg Sosunov (D), Rinat Valiyev (D), Dmitri Orlov (D), Dmitri Zaitsev (D) & Nikita Tryamkin (D)

There were 64 forwards selected in the last ten drafts;  Nail Yakupov (RW/LW),  Nikita Filatov (LW/RW),  Alexander Burmistrov (C/W),  Valeri Nichushkin (RW/LW),  Mikhail Grigorenko (C/W),  Denis Guryanov (RW/LW),  Vladimir Tarasenko (RW),  Yevgeni Svechnikov (LW/RW),  German Rubtsov (C),  Nikita Scherbak (RW/LW),  Yevgeni Kuznetsov (C)
Nikolai Goldobin (LW/RW),  Vladislav Namestnikov (C/LW),  Viktor Tikhonov (W/C),  Yegor Korshkov (RW),  Ivan Barbashyov (C/LW),  Valentin Zykov (LW/RW),  Alexander Khokhlachev (C/W),  Vladislav Kamenev (C/LW),  Artur Kayumov (LW),  Maxim Letunov (C)
Yakov Trenin (C/LW),  Nikita Kucherov (RW),  Dmitri Kugryshev (RW/LW),  Vitali Abramov (RW/LW),  Kirill Kabanov (RW/LW),  Kirill Petrov (RW/LW),  Alexander Dergachyov (C/RW)
Pavel Buchnevich (W/C),  Yevgeni Grachyov (C/W),  Sergei Andronov (W/C),  Bogdan Yakimov (C)
Stanislav Galiev (RW/LW),  Anton Slepyshev (LW/RW),  Daniil Zharkov (LW),  Anatoli Golyshev (LW/RW),  Ivan Telegin (W/C),  Mikhail Maltsev (LW),  Mikhail Vorobyov (C),  Maxim Shalunov (RW/C),  Alexander Avtsin (RW),  Alexander Delnov (LW/RW),  Dmitri Zhukenov (C)
Nikolai Prokhorkin (LW/C),  Vladimir Bobylyov (W/C),  Andrei Loktionov (C),  Yaroslav Kosov (LW/RW),  Kirill Kaprizov (LW/RW),  Pavel Karnaukhov (LW/C),  Maxim Trunyov (RW/LW)
Maxim Kitsyn (LW),  Pavel Kraskovsky (C),  Daniil Sobchenko (C),  Radel Fazleyev (C/W),  Anton Zlobin (RW/LW),  Maxim Mamin (LW/RW),  Nikolai Chebykin (RW/LW),  Nikita Korostelev (RW/LW)
Vasili Glotov (LW),  Dmitri Sokolov (C/W),  Nikita Pavlychev (C),  Alexander Kadeykin (C),  Nikita Gusev (LW),  Emil Galimov (RW)

Next, I will look at the goalies, defenseman and forwards separately and find out how they scored in their draft years and compared them to the draft years.

Steve Austins

The Oiler’s roster will look different.  This weekend might seem like an episode of Charles in Charge it might make us cry, laugh or shout why the hell does anyone pay any attention to this shit.  There’s going to be change in the Oiler’s roster this weekend and Chiarelli’s in charge.

TSN has listed 5 assets on their top 30 lists and Frank Seravalli said, ‘the odds still lie on the jettisoning of one of Edmonton’s $6-million forwards.’  What is the fair value for one of the Six-Millon-Dollar men?  Also, outside of Eberle, Nuge & Hall the Oiler’s also have Yakupov & the 4th overall pick on the list.

Here are some 5X5 stats via stats.hockeyanalysis.com (great site) to show the Even Strength numbers for the 4 assets named by Frank Seravalli.  I also included Benoit Pouliot as his name has also been mentioned in a couple of rumors as well.

Player GF/60 PTS/60 CF% GF%
Team 2.04 N/A 48.8 44.3
Taylor Hall 2.74 2.31 51.7 51.8
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2.41 1.36 47.9 45.7
Jordan Eberle 2.41 1.85 50.9 44.8

Taylor Hall

Why the Oiler’s should trade him?

  • He’s bad in the room.  I haven’t been in the room but I can speculate.  I heard a rumor that his pre-game song was Michael Bolton’s – “Can I Touch You There?”  I just listened to that song and it’s horrible.  How can you trust a guy like that?
  • He’s not a winner.  I heard he finished 6th in his middle school badminton tournament where he was projected to come first.  He just can’t win!  I mean aside from the Memorial Cup, OHL & International Tournaments.
  • He has the most value outside of Connor McDavid.

Why the Oiler’s shouldn’t trade him?

  • There’s a 6% increase in CF%, 17% increase in GF% & 34% increase in Goals/60 when Taylor Hall is on the ice.
  • He’s top 10 scorer in the NHL.  The only players ahead of him for even strength points/60 in the last 3 years are; Benn, Tarasenko, Seguin, Crosby, Getzlaf, Kane & Perry.  Would you trade any of those players?
  • They won’t get fair value for him.

What teams could potentially inquire about him?

  1. Any team can, but I’ll put together a list of three.  New York Islanders – need an elite winger to pair with Tavares.
  2. Anahiem Ducks looking for an elite Left Winger and have an abundance of defenseman.  There’s a rumor the Oiler’s need a defenseman …
  3. Buffalo Sabres.  Tim Murray is a gambler and willing to shake things up.

What is the potential return?

  1. Islanders – Travis Hamonic, 1st Round Pick & Ryan Strome
  2. Ducks – Hampus Lindholm & Nicolas Kerdiles.  Lindholm for Hall is fairly even.  I would try and grab a depth player from their roster.  Kerdiles is a guy I like.
  3. Sabres – Rasmus Ristolainen & Zemgus Girgensons.  The Sabres have several right hand shot d-man.  Nobody is talking about trading Ristolainen but if they want to acquire a top 10 winger they have to pay the price.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Why the Oiler’s should trade him?

  • Outside of Hall & arguably the 4th overall pick.  Nuge has the highest value.
  • He doesn’t provide top line offense.  His 3 year 5×5 Pts/60 is 1.62.  Which is good numbers but not elite.  His career numbers without Hall or Eberle are not strong.
  • The Oiler’s might feel like they can replace this player (Bozak, Berglund, Shaw, Helm are some options) and are comfortable with McDavid and Drai as their top pivots.

Why the Oiler’s shouldn’t trade him?

  • Nuge is the team’s most complete forward.  He is the only top player that kills penalties. He averages over 19:28 minutes of ice per game since he’s entered the league.
  • You would have to believe his value is low.  Nuge had a bad year last year, he had his second worst points/G and 5×5 points/60 in his career.  With Nuge I think there’s another level that he can hit.  Eberle & Hall are likely closer to the finished product.  With Nuge, in my opinion, I don’t think he’s a finished product he’s had to play center as a teenager against the best players and finally the team has some shelter around him.  I don’t feel like this is the time to trade him.
  • Nuge has the most term left on his contract.  There’s five years left.  That’s important, Eberle has three years and he’s a free agent and Hall have four years left.  The Oiler’s will have to trade one of these players or watch them leave as a free agent when players like McDavid, Drai, Nurse, Tkachuk start getting their next contracts.

What teams could potentially inquire about him?

  1. Columbus – Just traded Ryan Johansen and could use a first line center.
  2. St. Louis – Hitchcock would love this player.
  3. Minnesota – Koivu & Granlund haven’t taken a step forward.

What is the potential return?

  1. Columbus would need to be centered around Savard.  The Jackets would want to trade a contract as well to make it work.  Let’s say Nuge & Korpse for Savard, Hartnell & 2nd Round pick.  The Oiler’s could buy out Hartnell’s last year of the deal if he wasn’t playing well.  To give them the cap relieve to sign McDavid & Nurse.
  2. Blues.  Shattenkirk & a 1st Round Pick.  If I were the Oiler’s that’s what I would ask for, maybe the Oiler’s have to give a little extra.  I would give the Blues 12 million to resign PRV, Rattie, Schwartz & attempt to re-sign Brouwer.  They could move Berglund to get more cap relief.  I think that’s probably the best immediate return the Blues would get for Shattenkirk too.  I think there’s a chance he’s dealt for draft picks and young players.  If the Blues want to win next year this could be their best return.  The issue for the Oiler’s is signability that’s why they would need to ask for the additional first.
  3. Minnesota.  Dumba & Granlund for Nuge+.  Not sure what the plus would be but it might be a deal that works for both sides.  From the Wild side they might need to shed more contract.  So lets add Vanek from the Wild side and Yakupov from the Oiler’s side.  Dumba, Granlund & Vanek for Nuge, Yakupov & a mid prospect (Lagesson or something).

 

Jordan Eberle

Why the Oiler’s should trade him?

  • The contract.  Out of the six million dollar men, his contract ends first.
  • He’s a first line player, his 1.91 5X5 Pts/60, rank him 70th among forwards who have played 750+ minutes in the past three seasons but not elite.
  • He’s a one dimensional player.  Eberle can score but doesn’t bring another element to the game.

Why the Oiler’s shouldn’t trade him?

  • The Oiler’s depth on right wing is not strong.  After Eberle the Oiler’s currently have; Yakupov (likely to be traded), Kassian, Pakarinen, Pitlick and a couple of new signings Jere Sallinen & Patrick Russell.
  • Eberle’s value is low at this point as well.  This year was the first time since his rookie season that he’s missed more than 3 games and 47 points are also the lowest since his rookie season.
  • Eberle playing with McDavid could be an excellent candidate for a pump and dump.

What teams could potentially inquire about him?

  • Buffalo Sabres could look for top line winger.
  • New York Islanders with Okposo gone and likley not enough assets to grab Hall perhaps they turn their attention to Eberle.
  • Arizona Coyotes could use some scoring help.

What is the potential return?

  • Buffalo Sabres:  Zach Bogosian. I know he’s not what people want but he’s got good size.  His career 5×5 pts/60 is .77, only Klefbom has better numbers from the Oiler’s current defenseman.
  • New York Islanders: The likelihood of Eberle getting Hamonic is very low.  I think if he gets traded it will be to make cap space for another move (such as the Oiler’s signing Lucic).  I’ll say the Islanders first round pick & Ryan Strome or Ryan Pullock.

 

 

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