Kris Russell

I wanted to take a quick look at Kris Russell’s stats with his defense pairings and compared to his defense partner’s and the Flames as a team for the past 3 seasons.  To see if Kris Russell was the black hole defenseman that the analytics community has said that he was.

The team’s 5×5 stats for the Flames for the past three seasons as per stats.hockeyanalysis.com

Team GF60 GA60 GF% SF60 SA60 SF% FF60 FA60 FF% CF60 CA60 CF%
CAL 2.2 2.48 46.9 26.5 28.8 47.9 37 41.1 47.3 51 59.2 46.3

Russell played 3875 minutes in the past three seasons with the Flames and Stars.  The majority of the minutes were with the Flames so we will look at the Flames team.

Player Pos GF60 GA60 GF% CF60 CA60 CF%
RUSSELL, KRIS D 2.65 2.6 50.4 50.4 64.58 43.8 100.0%
WIDEMAN, DENNIS D 2.88 2.59 52.7 52.41 66.14 44.2 47.3%
HAMILTON, DOUGIE D 1.93 2.47 43.9 49.98 61.16 45 14.4%
BRODIE, TJ D 2.47 2.02 55 46.12 60.63 43.2 13.8%
BUTLER, CHRIS D 1.82 2.6 41.2 45.68 69.82 39.6 11.9%
ENGELLAND, DERYK D 3.33 2.22 60 46.21 68.38 40.3 4.2%
GOLIGOSKI, ALEX D 5.12 5.12 50 54.63 64.88 45.7 2.7%
GIORDANO, MARK D 2.61 3.92 40 49.64 62.7 44.2 1.2%

Here’s a chart that shows the % of time Russell has played with over the coarse of the past three seasons.  He’s played predominately with Wideman.

WOWY Impact

Here is a chart that shows the GoalsFor and CorsiFor WOWY and the positive and negative impact that Russell had on his defense partner for the past three seasons.

Teamate GF% CF% GF% CF% GF Impact CF Impact
WIDEMAN 48.3 43.5 39.6 44.1 8.7 -0.6
HAMILTON 51.3 43.6 53.1 54.5 -1.8 -10.9
BRODIE 49.8 43.9 49.8 49.4 0 -5.5
BUTLER 51.5 44.4 44 46.3 7.5 -1.9
ENGELLAND 50 44 41 43.3 9 0.7
GOLIGOSKI 50.5 43.8 54.3 53 -3.8 -9.2
GIORDAN 50.6 43.8 50.5 50.6 0.1 -6.8

The CF% impact is horrible.  Out of the 7 defenseman that Russell played 45+ minutes with in the past three seasons only Engelland had less Corsi events.  However, you need to keep in mind these are three year averages.  Hamilton played with Zdeno Chara (38% of his 5×5 minutes) and their CF% was 56.3% while with the Bruins.  Goligoski has played over 65% of the time with John Klingberg the past two seasons with a GF% of 57.7 & CF% of 55.5 while playing with him.

In the past four seasons 167 Defenseman have played 2000+ minutes  in the NHL 5×5 Kris Russel ranks 161st in CF%, 154th in SF% but he was 84th for GF%.  The GF bump was due to a PDO bump in 2014-15.

How Much of an Impact Did Not Playing With Giordano Have on Kris Russell?

Russell has played nearly three seasons with the Flames and has played only 45 minutes with, in my opinion, the teams best player Mark Giordano.  The team’s shot rates are higher when Giordano is on the ice.  With Giordano on the ice, whom Russel did not play with, the Flames had a CF of 50.6.  Without, Giordano the Flames were 45.1 and Russell’s number is 43.8.  Still below, the team average but is not out of line with the rest of the team’s performance without Girodano.

Giordano has the biggest impact for defenseman on his teams Corsi.  Here is the CF% RelTM (Corsi For % relative to Teamates).

Player Name Team CF% TMCF% CF% RelTM
GIORDANO, MARK Calgary 50.5 45.1 5.3
STRALMAN, ANTON Tampa 55.9 50.6 5.2
KARLSSON, ERIK Ottawa 53 47.9 5.1
CAMPBELL, BRIAN Florida 53.3 48.9 4.4
SMITH, BRENDAN Detroit 55.5 51.1 4.4
MUZZIN, JAKE Los_Angeles 58.8 54.5 4.3
LINDHOLM, HAMPUS Anaheim 53.2 49.4 3.9
HEDMAN, VICTOR Tampa 55 51.1 3.9
SUBBAN, P.K. Montreal 51.4 47.6 3.8
GARDINER, JAKE Toronto 49.9 46.2 3.7

In the past three season’s Mark Giordano & Kris Russell have played just over 31% of their teams minutes and have not played together.  Are we certain that Russell is a bad defenseman or are the Flames a bad team when Giordano (and to a certain extent TJ Brodie) are not on the ice?

The Flames were a tire fire when Giordano wasn’t on the ice.  Only two teams had a CF% of worse than 45 in the past three seasons Colorado and Buffalo.  So obviously, Russell not playing with Giordano impacted his shot rates. How much is another question?

When Russell played with Giordano & Brodie his CF% didn’t increase.  Although you could say that it might be due to the Lefty/Lefty issue.  Although it seems to work out alright for Brodie & Gio.

However, Russell also didn’t differentiate himself from the 5-6 defenseman.  In fact the CF% is slightly less.  Although, Russell was playing higher level of competition.  The Flames played their bottom pairing defenseman fewer 15 minutes game and sheltered minutes.

Why is Russell playing so much?

This I do not understand.  In each of the past three seasons Kris Russell has finished top 15 in Even Strength TOI.  Prior, to that season Russell played under 15 minutes the previous two seasons with St. Louis.

How Did He Play Before Calgary?

2012-13

Player Name CF% TMCF% CF% RelTM
SHATTENKIRK, KEVIN 55.5 50.2 5.2
PIETRANGELO, ALEX 52.3 51.6 0.7
COLE, IAN 52.1 52.4 -0.3
RUSSELL, KRIS 51.1 51.8 -0.7
POLAK, ROMAN 50 52.7 -2.7
LEOPOLD, JORDAN 48.6 48.2 0.4
BOUWMEESTER, JAY 48.5 49.9 -1.4
JACKMAN, BARRET 46.6 54.6 -8

2011-12

Player Name CF% TMCF% CF% RelTM
COLE, IAN 55.1 52.6 2.5
PIETRANGELO, ALEX 55 51.3 3.7
SHATTENKIRK, KEVIN 54.2 51.6 2.5
COLAIACOVO, CARLO 53.9 53.1 0.7
JACKMAN, BARRET 52.6 53.1 -0.5
RUSSELL, KRIS 51.9 51.8 0.1
HUSKINS, KENT 51.4 53.2 -1.8
POLAK, ROMAN 49.8 54.1 -4.3

To me those numbers don’t scream ‘black hole’, Russell isn’t a guy that can drive the offense but he can hold his own by those numbers.  It must be noted that he was playing third pairing and in a a sheltered role.

How did he play after he left Calgary?

Here’s the Dallas Stars Defensemen Numbers this Past Season

Player CF% FF% SF% xGF% SCF% GF%
ALEX.GOLIGOSKI 53.68 53.07 53.84 52.16 51.52 55.4
JAMIE.OLEKSIAK 50.48 54.55 54.3 55.64 51.67 35.29
JASON.DEMERS 54.17 54.28 53.5 55.4 53.54 52.24
JOHN.KLINGBERG 55.59 53.83 55.12 54.29 54.35 57.5
JOHNNY.ODUYA 50.68 50.74 50.12 51.14 46.92 46.39
JORDIE.BENN 48.83 49.53 49.94 49.27 47.83 50
JYRKI.JOKIPAKKA 50.34 49.31 49.31 49.58 51.35 51.06
KRIS.RUSSELL 50.52 56 57.89 52.27 48.21 53.57
PATRIK.NEMETH 51.81 53.29 52.19 53.7 47.26 48.39

Russell’s numbers don’t look out of line with most of these players.  Klingberg was the best defenseman.  I’d say that Russell is behind Jason Demers and Alex Goligoski but those players have signed long term deal 5 Year deals.  Demers carrying a 4.5 million dollar cap hit with a NTC.   Goligoski with a 5.475 million dollar cap hit and a NMC.  I think that you could make a good case that Russell performed better than Johnny Oduya who will be 35 at the start of this season and has a 3.75 million dollar cap hit with a modified NTC.

Is Kris Russell the Next Andrew Ference?

One of the things I’ve heard is that with Russell’s game he could become the next Ference.

The problem with that is, the Oiler’s signed Ference as a 34 year-old to a 4 year deal and Russell will likely sign a 1 year deal and is only 29.  From ages 29 – 33 Ference played 288 games and averaged over 19 minutes a night.  If the Oiler’s sign Russell to a reasonable contract and get the level of play that Ference provided the Bruins then it will be a helluva deal for the Oiler’s.

Player Age GP
Kris Russell 29 573
Andrew Ference 34 760

What Would You Expect from Russell?

He shouldn’t be a featured player in a top 4 role, but he can contribute as a depth player that can play within the top 4 in a pinch.  If a team could lower his TOI/G he might be a more effective player.  Offensively he’s put up .55 – .75 PPG, which would be ahead of most Oiler defenders.

Should the Oilers Sign Him?

First, I think that you have to way the good and the bad.

The Good

  • Russell is an actual NHL defender.  Although he’s critic’d by the analytics croud, he has been trusted to play 20+ minutes by his coaches.
  • He is at this moment a better defenseman than the Oiler’s currently have employed and penciled in their top six.
  • It would allow the team to send Nurse & Reinhart to the AHL for some seasoning.
  • It would allow the Oiler’s some depth when injury occurs.
  • The Oiler’s could flip him at/near the deadline if the defense core is healthy and Reinhart/Nurse or the field are ready to push for playing time.

The Bad

  • If you think he’s a legit top 4 defenseman, you will be disappointed.  I think he could anchor a decent bottom pairing.
  • If the Oiler’s sign Versteeg & Russell they are close to the roster limit.  It will be roughly 47 players.  Which doesn’t allow much wiggle room to add players or sign college free agents at the end of the season.  Not a huge issue but something to keep in mind.
  • The money.  How much will it cost?  That’s the key.

How Much?

  • If you are the Oiler’s you would want him in the 1 – 2 million dollar range.
  • I think more realistically the 2 – 3 million dollar range is what he should be signing.
  • I would consider going in the 3.5 million dollar range only because that’s what Oduya is getting and it would only be a 1 year deal.
  • Anything about 4 million should be avoided.

What Would I Do?

  • If Russell would sign for 2.5 million, I would do it.  Anything above that number, I would look at signing a player like Gryba (provided that he would want to come back) and look at the waiver wire for potential upgrade.  I think a guy like Ryan Sproul might be a good target for the Oilers.

 

OHL Forwards – 2017

Watch List for the OHL season.  There is no current rankings just notes.

Ivan Lodnia (RW)    Erie Otters  – DOB: 1999-08-31 – H: 5’10

  • US Hockey Report – A highly-talented two-way forward who has great speed, hands, and creativity.

Nicholas Suzuki (C)    Owen Sound Attack   – DOB: 1999-08-10 – H: 5’10

  • McKeen’s Brandon Ross:  Nice to see this highly intelligent center have an outstanding final tournament …. lifted them to victory showing elite defensive skills to force a turnover and elite offensive skills to capitalize the other way.

Gabriel Vilardi (C)    Windsor Spitfires   – DOB: 1999-08-16 – H: 6’2

  • As of Sept 14th he was ranked 3rd by Hockey Prospect, Future Considerations & Craig Button
  • Last Word on Sports:  He uses his size to shield the puck and maintain possession in the cycle game, and uses his powerful stride to fight through checks and drive the net. Vilardi has a very long reach and excellent puck handling ability. He uses these assets to extend plays and wait for teammates to get open, before hitting them with a pass. Vilardi is constantly moving and getting involved in the play. He is extremely gritty and involved in battles along the boards, and in front of the net. The power forward prospect also has a very good wrist shot.

Matthew Strome (LW)    Hamilton Bulldogs    – DOB: 1999-01-06 – H: 6’3

  • The Hockey Writers:  He uses his size, strength, and speed to drive the net and create scoring chances. He is also active in board battles, playing a more physical game. The elite hockey IQ of his brothers is also in his game, playing a smart, 200-foot game.

Jack Studnicka (C)    Oshawa Generals   – DOB: 1999-02-18 – H: 6′

  • McKeens:  Jack is a power pivot who displays a methodical stick handling attack, using subtle puck placement over dangling options…very good at exiting traffic and unleashing a quick accurate shot…strong two-way player with good possession tools…

Brady Gilmour (C)    Saginaw Spirit    OHL – DOB: 1999-04-18 – H: 5’10

  • Hockey Now: He’s a complete player. He’s a two-way guy that works hard in both ends and is a true leader, the guy just has leadership qualities well beyond his years –

Owen Tippett (RW)    Mississauga Steelheads  – DOB: 1999-02-16 – H: 6’1

  • Tippett is goal-scorer with good size and patterns his game after Stamkos.
  • Dobber Prospects: Tippett is a speedster with an explosive first step and a high-end top gear that allows him to fly up the ice. His shot is equally quick in both his release and its velocity.

Alexander Chmelevski (C)    Sarnia Sting    – DOB: 1999-06-09 – H: 5’11

  • OHL Prospect: Chmelevski is a dynamic offensive player who has blazing speed and dazzling puck skill. He put that well on display at the Hlinka, where he led the US to silver, capturing the tournament’s leading scorer award.

Isaac Ratcliffe (LW)    Guelph Storm    OHL – DOB: 1999-02-15 – H: 6’4

  •  “Ratcliffe is an exciting player. He’s almost six-five but skates like someone five-five. He’s got a beautiful stride on him,” Storm head scout Chris McCleary said.

Austen Keating (C)    Ottawa 67’s    DOB: 1999-03-07 – H: 5’11

  • “He sees the ice really well and has a great shot, He’s definitely ready for the next level and has what it takes,” Guelph Gryphons Minor Midget AAA coach Ryan Black

On The Radar

  • Morgan Frost (C)    Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds   DOB – 1999-05-14 H: 5’11: Smart two-way player that despite size isn’t afraid to play a physical game.
  • Jason Robertson (LW)    Kingston Frontenacs    DOB: 1999-07-22 – H: 6’1:  Good size, speed, skill combination.
    Jonah Gadjovich (LW)    Owen Sound Attack  – DOB: 1998-10-12 – H: 6’2 – Big Power Forward with a late birthday, so he’ll be older than most first year draft eligible players this season.
    Kirill Maximov (LW)    Saginaw Spirit – DOB: 1999-06-01 – H: 6’1 – Smooth stick-handling Russian with good size.
    Liam Hawel (C)    Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds – DOB:  1999-04-18 H: 6’4 – A big, smart right-hand shot center will need to bring more offense and get a little stronger.
    Robert Thomas (C)    London Knights – DOB:  1999-07-02 H: 5’10 – Played a regular shift on a deep Knights team last year.  Per London Free Press:  Hunter likes Thomas’ vision, speed, hockey sense and ability to pass the puck. Thomas also fulfills a real need the Knights have had since Bo Horvat graduated to the Vancouver Canucks.

Russian D-Man (Draft Year)

In the past 10 years 25 defenseman from Russia were selected in the NHL Entry Draft.  I am going to look at how the players drd during their 1st draft eligible year.  That does not mean that they were selected in their first year players such as Yegor Rykov who was drafted this past year was in his second year of eligibility.

# Team Player H DOB
7 Philadelphia Flyers  Ivan Provorov (D) 6’1 1/13/1997
9 Montréal Canadiens  Mikhail Sergachyov (D) 6’4 6/25/1998
14 Florida Panthers  Dmitri Kulikov (D) 6′ 10/29/1990
16 Buffalo Sabres  Nikita Zadorov (D) 6’5 4/16/1995
32 Los Angeles Kings  Vyacheslav Voynov (D) 6′ 1/15/1990
55 Washington Capitals  Dmitri Orlov (D) 5’11 7/23/1991
63 New York Islanders  Andrey Pedan (D) 6’5 7/3/1993
66 Vancouver Canucks  Nikita Tryamkin (D) 6’8 8/30/1994
68 Toronto Maple Leafs  Rinat Valiyev (D) 6’2 5/11/1995
79 New York Rangers  Sergei Zborovsky (D) 6’5 2/21/1997
101 Colorado Avalanche  Andrei Mironov (D) 6’2 7/29/1994
122 New York Islanders  Anton Klementyev (D) 6′ 3/25/1990
132 New Jersey Devils  Yegor Rykov (D) 6’2 4/14/1997
148 Tampa Bay Lightning  Nikita Nesterov (D) 5’11 3/28/1993
159 Columbus Blue Jackets  Vladislav Gavrikov (D) 6’3 11/21/1995
161 Colorado Avalanche  Sergei Boikov (D) 6’2 1/24/1996
178 Tampa Bay Lightning  Oleg Sosunov (D) 6’8 4/13/1998
183 Dallas Stars  Dmitri Sinitsyn (D) 6’2 6/17/1994
187 Calgary Flames  Rushan Rafikov (D) 6’2 5/15/1995
195 Boston Bruins  Maxim Chudinov (D) 5’11 3/25/1990
200 New York Rangers  Mikhail Pashnin (D) 6’1 5/11/1989
201 Philadelphia Flyers  Valeri Vasilyev (D) 6’1 5/31/1994
205 Detroit Red Wings  Alexei Marchenko (D) 6’2 1/2/1992
207 Washington Capitals  Dmitri Zaitsev (D) 6’1 1/18/1998
209 Edmonton Oilers  Ziyat Paigin (D) 6’6 2/8/1995

Canadian Major Junior

  • CHL is consisted of QMJHL, OHL & WHL.
  • Seven players played their 17 year-old draft season in Canadian Major Junior hockey.
  • Six of the seven players were selected inside the first 80 selections.  In fact seven of the first 10 Russian players selected played in the CHL.

17 Year-Old Season

Player PPG League
 Ivan Provorov (D) 1.02 WHL
 Mikhail Sergachyov (D) 0.85 OHL
 Dmitri Kulikov (D) 1.09 QMJHL
 Nikita Zadorov (D) 0.24 OHL
 Andrey Pedan (D) 0.24 OHL
 Sergei Zborovsky (D) 0.27 WHL
Sergei Boikov 0.18 QMJHL
  • The average PPG is .56
  • There will be more context after I have a chance to look at CHL numbers but Provorov, Sergachyov & Kulikov produced good-to-excellent offensive numbers.
  • Zadorov, Pedan and Zborovsky are big players both over 6’5 and produced low offensive numbers.
  • Boikov was drafted as an overage player.

 

Russia – KHL & Russia SuperLeague

Player League Pts/G GP PTS
 Vyacheslav Voynov (D) Russia-SL 0.11 36 4
 Dmitri Orlov (D) KHL 0.07 15 1
 Maxim Chudinov (D) Russia 0.00 18 0

 

There were only three players selected in the NHL that played the majority of their first draft eligible season in the KHL/Russian SuperLeague.  The Russian SuperLeague was the KHL before the KHL.

If a prospect is playing at this level they should strongly be considered a draft prospect.  Both Orlov and Voynov were early selections (both second round picks), whereas Chudinov was a 7th round pick.

  • Voynov, legal issues aside, was a legit top four defenseman.
  • Orlov has 60 points in 200 NHL games.  He plays predominately 3rd pairing minutes with the Capitals.
  • Chudinov likely has enough talent to play in the NHL.  He is one of the top defenseman in the KHL and, I believe, he is signed for two more seasons.

There’s very little data to make any judgement on.  Other than to say that if a 17 year-old is playing in the KHL, regardless of their PPG, there is a good chance that he will have a shot in the NHL.  Draft the kid.

MHL

Player League Pts/G GP PTS
 Alexei Marchenko (D) MHL 0.79 43 34
 Yegor Rykov (D) MHL 0.50 42 21
 Nikita Nesterov (D) MHL 0.41 46 19
 Vladislav Gavrikov (D) MHL 0.27 45 12
 Anton Klementyev (D) Russia-3 0.26 68 18
 Nikita Tryamkin (D) MHL 0.20 60 12
 Rushan Rafikov (D) MHL 0.19 53 10
 Andrei Mironov (D) MHL 0.15 59 9
 Valeri Vasilyev (D) MHL 0.11 18 2
  • MHL is the top Junior league within Russia.  Unlike the CHL the teams may have an affiliation with a KHL team.  Here is a HF boards thread which discusses the MHL.
  • The average Pts/G is .32
  • Both Marchenko, Nesterov & the colossal (6’8) Trymakin have played in the NHL.
  • Outside of  Nikita Tryamkin all the players that averaged under .4 PPG do not appear to be on target to be NHL players.  All of the > .4 PPG prospects, with the exception of Tryamkin, are between 6′ – 6’3 and were born in 1990 – 1991.
  • So by quick glance, if you are  drafting out of the MHL they should be above .25 PPG.

MHL B

Player League Pts/G GP PTS
 Ziyat Paigin (D) MHL B 0.51 35 18
 Oleg Sosunov (D) MHL B 0.31 39 12
 Dmitri Sinitsyn (D) MHL B 0.00 7 0
  • There were only three players selected in the MHL-B division.  Each player has his own story.
  • Ziyat Piagin is a big defender that went undrafted in his first two years of eligibility.
  • Oleg Sosunov was drafted this past season, he is another giant defender (6’8), with a nasty side (66 PIMs in 39 games) and was ranked 25th by NHL Central Scouting amongst European skaters.
  • Dmitry Sinitsyn took a weird detour in his hockey career.  His 16 year old season he played with the Dallas Stars U18 midget team.  He was drafted to play with Green Bay in the USHL.  Had a visa issue where he then returned home to play 7 games in the MHL.  He then returned to North America in December and practiced with U of Mass-Lowell but was redshirted, meaning – didn’t play in any games so that he could keep his four years of NCAA eligibility.  Also, he was drafted by the Dallas Stars so with him playing his 15 & 16 year old seasons they likely had some inside information.

Randomness

Player League Pts/G GP PTS
 Rinat Valiyev (D) USHL 0.36 36 13
 Dmitri Zaitsev (D) NAHL 0.42 53 22
 Mikhail Pashnin (D) Russia2 0.05 42 2
  • Three players were drafted in three separate leagues.
  • Valiyev was drafted as an overager.  He had a decent season in the USHL and could have been considered a late round pick.
  • Zaitsev was drafted out of the NAHL, which is a United States junior league.
  • Pashnin was drafted out of Russia2 which is a Russia (minor league) similar to the VHL.

Thoughts

  • I think that the Russian factor hasn’t had an effect on impact Canadian junior prospects (Zadorov, Kulikov, Provorov)
  • If a 17 year-old defenseman is playing in the KHL there’s a good chance he’s a quality prospect.
  • The MHL has been a mixed bag but players that are putting up decent offensive totals (.4+ PPG) are worth a mid-round pick.
  • The NHL like’s drafting big defenseman and the Russian’s have produced some big men.  Six of the twenty-five defenseman were between 6’5 – 6’8 in height!  The average Russian defenseman that was drafted was over 6’2 (74.4 inches).
  • Continuing with height 13 defensemen were between 6’1 – 6’4 and six defenseman were between 5’11 – 6′
  • My fav picks are Chudinov & Marchenko both performed excellent comparably to tother prospects and were chosen in the 7th round.

Russian Goalies

For this part I am going to look at the development path of the Russian goalies.

There were 11 Goalies drafted.  Vasilevsky at 19th overall was the earliest.  Ilya Samsonov was the only other first round pick.  By round here is the number of selections 2nd (0), 3rd (2), 4th & 5th (1), 6th (3) & 7th (2).

The average height of the goalies drafted was 6’2 1/2”.  Four of the goalies drafted were overagers.

I’ll take a look at the players progression in various leagues  from their draft year up until the age 23.  The goal is to identify which statistical variables too look for when drafting a goalie from Russia.  I will circle around and update some of the variables when I look at other European goalies (Czech, Slovakia, ect) that have played in Russian programs.

Here are some of the quick observations;

  • In the first year all goalies were drafted directly out of the top Russian junior league (MHL) the MHL has only been operating for 8 seasons so we don’t have much data on it yet.
  • A goalie should have a minimum SV% of .910 in his draft year in the MHL and should be close to .920.
  • International Tournaments Matter.  Seven of the eleven goalies drafted played in the U18 prior to being drafted.  The average SV% was .927.
  • Only three prospects played in the U20 – Vasilevsky, Samsonov & Bobkov as an 18 year-old.
  • Seven of the nine eligible prospects played in their final year of eligibility.
  • Andrei Vasilevsky is the gold standard.  He  played U20 during his 17 year old season and had a .953 SV%.  He played U17 in his 16 year old season compiled .936 SV%.  He played WC in his 19 year-old season and had a .985 SV%.  Vasilevsky is arguably the  best goalie prospect since Carey Price.
  • Ilya Samsonov had an superb second season compiling a .956 in World Juniors & .925 KHL Save Percentages this past season.  This year he is tracking ahed of Vasilevsky at the same age.
  • Outside of the two first round picks; Igor Shestyorkin (New York Rangers – 4th Rounder) & Ilya Sorokin (3rd Round New York Islanders Pick) are two prospects that are tracking well and worth keeping an eye on.
  • For first year overage goalie prospects they should be providing .920+ SV% in the MHL or playing in a pro league VHL (.915+ SV%) or KHL (.905+ SV%).
  • For two year overage they should be playing in a pro league VHL (.925 SV%)  or KHL (.910+ SV%)

Continue reading

Lucic Regression & Contract Thoughts

I pulled together a list of power forwards from the mid 90’s to today to look at the drop off in offensive production we should expect from Lucic during the contract.

Here is the list of players that I looked into;  Shane Doan, Ryan Clowe, Patrik Elias, Andrew Ladd, Dany Heatley, David Backes, Marion Hossa, Scott Hartnell, Brenden Morrow, Brendan Shanahan, Rick Nash, David Clarkson, Keith Tkachuk, Milan Michalek, Glen Murray, Todd Bertuzzi, Jarome Iginla, Ryan Smyth, Corey Perry, Owen Nolan, Justin Williams, Chris Kunitz, Ryan Kesler, Dustin Brown, Blake Wheeler, Michael Ryder, Joffery Lupul, Brandon Dubinsky.

The numbers were taken from hockey-reference.com, I looked predominately at wingers (exception of Backes & Kesler)  that had  .6 PPG prior to their 27th birthday (with the exception of David Clarkson), were 6’1+ (with the exception of Kunitz) and had a seasons with 50+ PIM’s.  I excluded Alex Ovechkin because I think he’s at an entirely different level as Lucic, I think we can all agree on that right?

There were three groups of players;

  • Players that have played until they were 34/35. (12.5)
    • Shane Doan, Patrik Elias, Marion Hossa, Brendan Morrow, Brendan Shanahan, Keith Tkachuk, Glen Murray, Todd Bertuzzi, Jarome Iginla,
      Ryan Smyth, Justin Williams (played til 34 this will be his 35th year), Chris Kunitz & Owen Nolan (.5 – I’ll explain the .5 in a minute)
  • Players that were either ineffective or injuried. (4.5)
    • Ryan Clowe, Dany Heatley, Joffery Lupul, Owen Nolan (.5)
  • Players that are currently active.  (12)
    • Milan Lucic, Andrew Ladd, David Backes, Scott Hartnell, Rick Nash, David Clarkson, Milan Michalek, Corey Perry, Ryan Kesler, Dustin Brown, Blake Wheeler, Brandon Dubinsky

Owen Nolan.  So Nolan had a clause in his contract that he would get paid during the lockout and a court battle ensued.  After the lockout Nolan sat out a year due to a ‘knee’ injury.  He came back for his 34 & 35th year.  Therefore I gave him a .5 because he didn’t play for two of his 27 – 33 years but he played the final 34 & 35 years.

Please note; the Points / G do not take into effect the games missed by the players during their seasons.  For example Todd Bertuzzi in the season he played at age 31 averaged .73 PPG but missed 67 PPG.  Part of that was I wanted to look at year to year productivity and part of it was I am lazy.

The Age is listed per Hockey-Reference.com.  Hockey Reference has the players age on Feb. 1st of the given hockey season.

About Lucic:

Milan Lucic averaged .68 Pts/G between his 22 birth year to his 27th birth year.  Lucic has been fairly healthy only missing 10 games in his 6 previous seasons in the NHL.  He is, as of now, a legit 1st line forward.  The questions that we need to answer is;

  • How much offensive regression should the Oiler’s expect?
  • How much time missed should we expect?
  • When should we expect the drop off?
  • Is he going to be worth that contract?
  • What about Hall?  (I will not answer that question!)

Here’s a look at the players comparisons 22 – 27 season.

Milan Lucic 0.78 0.75 0.59 0.74 0.54 0.68
Player 22 23 24 25 26 27
Shane Doan 0.28 0.63 0.83 0.6 0.71 0.86
Ryan Clowe 0.11 0.59 0.53 0.73 0.7
Patrik Elias 0.68 1 1.17 0.81 0.7 0.99
Andrew Ladd 0.48 0.6 0.46 0.73 0.61 0.96
Dany Heatley 1.16 0.81 1.26 1.28 1.15
David Backes 0.47 0.43 0.66 0.61 0.76 0.66
Marion Hossa 0.93 0.83 1 1.01 1.15
Scott Hartnell 0.59 0.61 0.54 0.73 0.54
Brendan Morrow 0.54 0.49 0.61 0.6 0.8
Brendan Shanahan 0.88 0.86 1.32 1.26 0.91 1.05
Rick Nash 0.76 0.86 1.01 0.88 0.88 0.72
David Clarkson 0.27 0.39 0.52 0.22 0.58
Keith Tkachuk 1.06 1.29 1.06 0.96 1 0.86
Milan Michalek 0.85 0.7 0.74 0.52 0.5 0.78
Glen Murray 0.2 0.42 0.39 0.74 0.51 0.79
Todd Bertuzzi 0.45 0.5 0.63 0.7 1.18 1.18
Jarome Iginla 0.82 0.92 1.17 0.89 0.9 0.82
Ryan Smyth 0.44 0.66 0.85 0.82 0.92 0.72
Corey Perry 0.77 0.92 0.93 1.2 0.75 0.82
Owen Nolan 1.07 0.85 0.88 0.55 0.58 1.08
Justin Williams 0.56 0.93 0.82 0.81 0.32
Chris Kunitz 0.59 0.74
Ryan Kesler 0.33 0.46 0.72 0.91 0.89 0.64
Dustin Brown 0.57 0.77 0.66 0.68 0.7 0.66
Blake Wheeler 0.56 0.46 0.54 0.8 0.85 0.84
Michael Ryder 0.78   0.68 0.71 0.44
Joffery Lupul 0.65 0.35 0.82 0.63 0.61 0.57
Brandon Dubinsky 0.5 0.64 0.7 0.44 0.69 0.66
  • The average PPG is .74 for the above list.  Lucic is within the range but a little behind.
  • Also, Clarkson should not be a comparison.
Player 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
Shane Doan 0.8 0.75 0.98 0.89 0.67 0.83 0.63
Ryan Clowe 0.83 0.59 0.48 0.77 0.31
Patrik Elias 1.18 0.92 0.74 1.01 0.83 0.77 0.96
Andrew Ladd 0.69 0.77 0.59
Dany Heatley 0.88 1 0.8 0.65 0.58 0.37
David Backes 0.58 0.77 0.73 0.57
Marion Hossa 1.22 0.92 0.96 0.89 0.88 0.95 0.78 0.83
Scott Hartnell 0.6 0.82 0.34 0.67 0.78 0.62
Brendan Morrow 0.78 0.9 0.83 0.61 0.68 0.46 0.57 0.35
Brendan Shanahan 1.09 0.76 0.72 1 0.94 0.94 0.87 0.65
Rick Nash 0.95 0.6 0.87 0.6
David Clarkson 0.5 0.18 0.25
Keith Tkachuk 1.04 1.03 0.98 0.95 0.88 0.73 0.73
Milan Michalek 0.61 0.48 0.52 0.36
Glen Murray 0.61 0.87 1.12 0.74 0.83 0.76 0.48
Todd Bertuzzi 0.87 0.87 0.73 0.59 0.67 0.54 0.56
Jarome Iginla 1.34 1.2 1.09 0.84 1.05 0.82 0.75
Ryan Smyth 0.88 0.96 0.67 0.77 0.79 0.57 0.56
Corey Perry 1.01 0.82 0.76
Owen Nolan 0.86 0.88 0.72 0.74 0.53 0.42
Justin Williams 0.59 0.78 0.72 0.69 0.52 0.51 0.63
Chris Kunitz 0.61 0.65 0.64 0.73 0.74 1.08 0.87 0.54
Ryan Kesler 0.76 0.56 0.58 0.67
Dustin Brown 0.63 0.34 0.33 0.34
Blake Wheeler 0.77 0.95
Michael Ryder 0.72 0.4 0.52 0.76 0.76 0.41 0.4
Joffery Lupul 1.02 1.13 0.64 0.38 0.3
Brandon Dubinsky 0.77 0.64
  • Here is how players played from their 28 – 35 years.
22 – 27 28-35  %
Shane Doan 0.651667 0.792857 121.7%
Ryan Clowe 0.532 0.596 112.0%
Patrik Elias 0.891667 0.915714 102.7%
Andrew Ladd 0.64 0.683333 106.8%
Dany Heatley 1.132 0.713333 63.0%
David Backes 0.598333 0.6625 110.7%
Marion Hossa 0.984 0.92875 94.4%
Scott Hartnell 0.602 0.638333 106.0%
Brendan Morrow 0.608 0.6475 106.5%
Brendan Shanahan 1.046667 0.87125 83.2%
Rick Nash 0.851667 0.755 88.6%
David Clarkson 0.396 0.31 78.3%
Keith Tkachuk 1.038333 0.905714 87.2%
Milan Michalek 0.681667 0.4925 72.2%
Glen Murray 0.508333 0.772857 152.0%
Todd Bertuzzi 0.773333 0.69 89.2%
Jarome Iginla 0.92 1.012857 110.1%
Ryan Smyth 0.735 0.742857 101.1%
Corey Perry 0.898333 0.863333 96.1%
Owen Nolan 0.835 0.691667 82.8%
Justin Williams 0.688 0.634286 92.2%
Chris Kunitz 0.665 0.7325 110.2%
Ryan Kesler 0.658333 0.6425 97.6%
Dustin Brown 0.673333 0.41 60.9%
Blake Wheeler 0.675 0.86 127.4%
Michael Ryder 0.6525 0.567143 86.9%
Joffery Lupul 0.605 0.694 114.7%
Brandon Dubinsky 0.605 0.705 116.5%
98.97%
  • On average a player aged 28 – 35 will produce 98.97% of his offensive production from his previous 22 – 27 seasons.  On averaged from Lucic’s 22nd – 27th year he would score 56 points if fully healthy for an 82 game schedule.  His production, based on averages would drop to a grand-total of 55.

The final two years!  I forgot to put the headings on this chart.  The first is the name, second is the 22 – 33 years, third is the 34 – 35 years and the final one is the 34-35 season divided by 22 – 33 years.  Essentially how much offense have they retained versus their career.

Shane Doan 0.727273 0.73 100.38%
Patrik Elias 0.911818 0.865 94.87%
Marion Hossa 0.976364 0.805 82.45%
Brenden Morrow 0.663636 0.46 69.32%
Brendan Shanahan 0.9775 0.76 77.75%
Keith Tkachuk 1.01 0.73 72.28%
Glen Murray 0.656364 0.62 94.46%
Todd Bertuzzi 0.760909 0.55 72.28%
Jarome Iginla 1.003636 0.785 78.22%
Ryan Smyth 0.770909 0.565 73.29%
Justin Williams 0.821 0.475 57.86%
Chris Kunitz 0.659091 0.63 95.59%
Average 80.73%
  • On average a player a players production would drop by 19.27% in his 34th – 35th years compared to their 22nd – 33rd years.

A player in their 28th – 33rd season can expect to produce at 96% compared to their 24th – 27th season.  I didn’t add the chart, but looked at the numbers.  What’s interesting with Lucic is his 22 & 23 years were his better years.

What should we expect from Lucic?

Based on the players listed above Lucic’s projected points, barring injuries, per game during the life of the contract should be between .65 PPG for the first five seasons and then drop to .54 PPG during the last two years of the deal.

Now this doesn’t factor in that Lucic is likely going to play with McDavid.  So I’d expect those totals to increase but I don’t have any decent stats to back it up.  That was the reason I looked at Chris Kunitz.  Kunitz before being paired with Crosby in Pittsburg put up .61 PPG in Anahiem and since the move to Pittsburgh he’s now averaging .72 PPG.  That number includes his last two seasons (age 35 & 36) which his PPG has dropped to .54 & .51.

Putting everything into consideration if Lucic finds chemistry with McDavid, I think he should realistically expect a 10 – 20% bump in producitivty.  So let’s give him a 10% bump from his projected numbers without McDavid.  I will guess the first 5 years of the deal he should average over .70 Pts/G, if he or McDavid do not have any major injuries.

The Contract Still Sucks!

The current CBA is done in Sept 2022.  But there could be a change to the agreement as early as Sept. 2019.  Per Yahoo – This CBA is a 10-year agreement, but both can choose to opt out after 8 years. The NHL will have first crack to do so by Sept. 1, 2019. If they decline, the NHLPA can decide to opt out by Sept. 19, 2019. The 10-year deal expires Sept. 15, 2022. There’s actually a potential lockout date as early as 2019.  Perhaps the Oiler’s buy-out the last year(s) of the deal if the NHL has another amnesty buy-out after the expiration of the CBA.  Which would essentially be a get out of jail free on the last year(s) of the deal.  A potential lockout was already brought up by Brooksie.

Also, the Cap should go up by roughly 10 million during the last two years of the deal.Cap Projections have the Cap going up by roughly 3% for the last three years.

  • 2016-17 – 73
  • 2017-18 – 75
  • 2018-19 – 77
  • 2018-20 – 79
  • 2020-21 – 81
  • 2021-22 – 83
  • 2022-23 – 85.5

So although there is going to be an estimated 20% drop in player productivity in the final two years of the deal.  There is an estimated  13.5% & 17% increase in cap space for the final two years of the deal.  Those are likely conservative numbers too considering the current Canadian dollar and expansion.There is risk with the contract.  I think there is risk with any contract but I consider this to be a 5 year deal rather than the 7 years it’s reported as.  The final two years he has a 8 / 10 team lists for the final two years of the contract.  So there’s a chance that he could be dealt to a team needing cap space.The Body Will Break Down

  • I looked at the 12 players that have played til 35 to compare the number of games they missed from their 22-27 seasons, 28-35 seasons, 28 – 33 seasons & 34 35 seasons.
  • The numbers were interesting;
Player 22 – 27 28 – 35 28 – 33 34 – 35
Shane Doan 2.33 3.43 2.20 6.50
Patrik Elias 4.33 12.86 17.60 1.00
Marion Hossa 1.60 9.88 10.17 9.00
Brenden Morrow 17.50 19.00 22.83 7.50
Brendan Shanahan 5.33 2.50 2.67 2.00
Keith Tkachuk 11.00 13.57 17.80 3.00
Glen Murray 9.50 11.29 7.40 21.00
Todd Bertuzzi 12.17 15.86 22.00 0.50
Jarome Iginla 3.60 2.00 2.00 2.00
Ryan Smyth 8.00 9.29 13.00 0.00
Justin Williams 17.20 6.14 7.17 0.00
Chris Kunitz 7.00 9.38 8.00 13.50
Average 8.30 9.60 11.07 5.50

I honestly went into this thinking that here is where you would lose value in signing Lucic.  But the data that I pulled doesn’t look that way.  Now, I know that I have removed Lupul & Clowe from the data pool but if a player is on LTIR his cap hit doesn’t count after the start of the season.  Meaning you can hide those dollars.  I would have thought that there would have been more games missed by after a player after turning 28.

Now, I know the data sample is a little low but it’s what I’ve got.

I think that people are assuming that Lucic will completely fall apart.  With most people that’s not the case.  In fact the 34 – 35 year seasons the players were relatively healthy, their production dropped.

Estimated Production

How much does 35 million (real money for the first 5 years) of Katz’s money get us from a production standpoint?  My projected total for the first 5 seasons of Lucic’s deal, which I think is what Chia bought,  is:

360 GP – 105 G – 155 A -260 PTS  (Average season is 72 Games Played with 20 Goal & 52 Points)

What do you think is that worth 7 Million a season?

The final two years (assuming there isn’t a lockout).  There will be a 6 million dollar cap (but only 4.5 million in real dollars) for a 16/17 goal scorer.

144 GP – 33 G – 49 A – 82 PTS

Is it a bad signing?  I’m not sure that I love with the last two years.  I don’t think the signing is as bad as some people are making it out to be.

These are conservative estimates.

Let’s take a look at an optimistic point of view.  There is a chance that Lucic doesn’t miss 10 games a year, based on his history he’s just as likely to miss 10 games in the first 5 years of the contract.  Using Kunitz as a comparison playing with Crosby (& to a certain extent Malkin) during his 29 – 34 the Penguins Left Winger saw a 30% increase in production.  I only did a 10% increase for Lucic.  Let’s say on the positive side that Lucic will see roughly a 35% increase in man-games lost.  That’s just over two games a season rather than the (10 games I projected).  Let’s also use the 30% increase in point production playing with a generational talent during his 24 – 33 season.  That increases his; games to  points per game to .83 and decreases his games lost to 11 total.

  • Games:  399 (80)
  • Goals: 132 (26)
  • Assists: 199 (40)
  • Points 331  (66)

 

 

 

 

 

1-4-1

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  1. One for One I think this is a loss for the Oiler’s.  New Jersey receives the better player.
  2. Chiarelli has a good track record with defenseman (I understand the concern on Reinhart)
    1. Johnny Boychuck
    2. Andrew Ference
    3. Dennis Wideman
    4. Aaron Ward
    5. Dennis Seidenberg
    6. Zdeno Chara – A lot of people say this was before Chiarelli officially started with the Bruins.  Come on really?  The assistant GM goes to Boston and then signs the biggest free agent from his old team.  Also, most people in Ottawa figured that Redden was the better defenseman at the time.
  3. If it came down to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for Matt Dumba versus Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson that’s a tough decision.  Hall is the better player but I think that Larsson is ahead of Dumba at this time.  Although Dumba might be a better offensive defenseman.  I would have kept Hall but I wonder if that’s me.
  4. I wonder do the Oilers value Nuge more Hall.  Chiarelli might like Nuge’s game more than Hall’s.
  5. What makes the team better?  Nuge+Larsson or Hall+Dumba?  I would believe Hall plus Dumba but …  There’s also the chance that Nuge also get’s dealt.  There’s a chance Nuge get’s dealt and this means diddly-poo.
  6. The Oiler’s still don’t have an offensive defenseman a player that can run the PP and signing Demers won’t really fix that.  If I were the Oiler’s I’d be looking at Ryan Murphy from the Hurricanes.  Perhaps they look at stop gap players like Wideman.
  7. How much motivation should this be for Eberle?  He wasn’t bringing in any defenseman that played in a top 4, his best friend on the team has been dealt and I’m doubtful he’s seen as a ‘core’ piece anymore.  Eberle has been given ample opportunity and his value right now is at an all time low.  Hopefully he can turn this around.
  8. Last point.  Adam Larsson is a top pairing 5×5 defenseman.  All you have to do is look at his opposition.  Here are Adam Larsson’s top opposition for the past two seasons per stats.hockeyanalysis.com.  Here are the opponents numbers are Against / Not Against.
  • The first number is the CorsiFor increase (positive number) or decrease (negative number) the player had when not paired against Adam Larsson versus when he was against Adam Larsson.  Is the player getting more shots when he doesn’t face Adam Larsson.  For Oiler fans you want a positive number
  • The second number CA is CorsiAgainst/60 increase (positive number) / decrease (negative number).  Is the player allowing more/less shots against when he doesn’t face Adam Larsson?  If your the Oiler’s you want a negative number.
  • The third number is CF% for the player when he’s not against the Oilers subtracted by the CF% when he’s on the ice against the Oilers.  If your an Oiler’s fan you want a positive number.
  • For example Crosby, who is a pretty good player, had
    • 66.14 CF/60 (when not against Larsson) – 36.1 CF/60 (when against Larsson)
    • 51.34 CA/60 (when not against Larsson) minus 55.95 CA/60 (when against Larsson)
    • 55.5 CF% (when not against Larsson minus 39.2 CF% (when against Larsson)
Player CF CA CF%
CROSBY, SIDNEY 28.04 -4.61 16.3
FOLIGNO, NICK -4.34 2.43 -3.2
STEPAN, DEREK 12.78 3.03 5.3
ATKINSON, CAM 2.13 22.2 -10.7
PACIORETTY, MAX 40.45 6.93 20.4
KREIDER, CHRIS 20.06 -0.86 11.1
OVECHKIN, ALEX 24.55 -1.22 12.8
STAAL, JORDAN 30.55 -13.87 23.2
ZUCCARELLO, MATS 19.76 -8.06 14
GIROUX, CLAUDE 25.04 5.63 10.2
LINDHOLM, ELIAS 31.69 -1.54 18.5
BAILEY, JOSH 2.18 13.15 -5.4
OKPOSO, KYLE 17.59 -7.11 11.6
HUBERDEAU, JONATHAN 22.11 1.47 12.4
BARKOV, ALEKSANDER 25.17 -0.7 16
SCHENN, BRAYDEN 29.29 -0.53 17.1
BERGERON, PATRICE 24.1 -34.81 24.5
PLEKANEC, TOMAS 33.8 -7.59 22.6
VORACEK, JAKUB 27.01 -1.87 15.1
WILLIAMS, JUSTIN 14.06 -9.47 10.8
PERRY, COREY 35.75 5.66 21.1
GETZLAF, RYAN 27.02 7.26 11.5
JOHANSEN, RYAN 7.67 2.79 2.5
RASK, VICTOR 15.34 3.81 5.8
KUZNETSOV, EVGENY 15.46 -4.13 9.9
NEAL, JAMES 27.33 5.94 11.1
JENNER, BOONE 9.45 21.14 -5.9
KOPITAR, ANZE 24.21 2.79 10.3
SAAD, BRANDON 25.12 21.22 1.7
DUBINSKY, BRANDON 5.73 19.04 -7.6
JAGR, JAROMIR 27.53 -8.76 21.7
KUNITZ, CHRIS 33.63 -6.03 20.7
HARTNELL, SCOTT 3.58 9.05 -2.8
BRASSARD, DERICK 15.73 2.61 7
MARCHAND, BRAD 28.78 -35.47 26.4
PERRON, DAVID 28.88 -4.68 18.5
SIMMONDS, WAYNE 19.25 19.93 -1.4
HORNQVIST, PATRIC 16.96 -9.47 12.2
HAGELIN, CARL 28.49 5.55 13.3
BACKSTROM, NICKLAS 18.05 12.55 2.1
TAVARES, JOHN 8.84 -4.19 5.5
SKINNER, JEFF 2.64 16.03 -7.4
RIBEIRO, MIKE 17.72 -5.16 10.3
NORDSTROM, JOAKIM 20.94 -1.92 13.6
STAAL, ERIC 37.45 -7.63 24.5
KESSEL, PHIL 24.14 10.18 8.4
MILLER, J.T. 3.14 10.63 -3.8
GALCHENYUK, ALEX 16.16 -17.25 14.1
ENNIS, TYLER -12.08 22.3 -15.9
LUCIC, MILAN 2.07 5.03 -1.7
GALLAGHER, BRENDAN 35.36 -18.18 25
NELSON, BROCK -3.96 5.95 -4.5
MOULSON, MATT -11.34 17.77 -14.1
GAUDREAU, JOHNNY -4.38 11.66 -7.5
KOMAROV, LEO 31.61 4.38 17.5
KANE, PATRICK 27.09 -6.31 17.7
ZETTERBERG, HENRIK 14.25 21.86 -7.2
RYAN, BOBBY 21.9 -1.62 13
JOHANSSON, MARCUS 2.22 1.64 0.2
RAFFL, MICHAEL 37.05 -27.97 31.2
HAYES, KEVIN 29.92 15.11 11.5
MONAHAN, SEAN -1.46 9.93 -5.1
ZIBANEJAD, MIKA 25.43 0.04 14.2
LANDESKOG, GABRIEL 17.07 13.4 3.3
FAST, JESPER 11.69 16.1 -2.5
DESHARNAIS, DAVID 19.39 1.72 9.2
SEDIN, DANIEL 20.89 -19.16 19.7
ABDELKADER, JUSTIN 14.72 20.64 -6.1
SEDIN, HENRIK 21.56 -19.93 20.2
DATSYUK, PAVEL 23.1 -3.48 13.9
O_REILLY, RYAN 16.34 10.81 4.3
NESTRASIL, ANDREJ 33.25 -10.7 24.5
WINNIK, DANIEL 12.67 11.45 0.6
GRANLUND, MIKAEL 14.16 7 3.6
BURAKOVSKY, ANDRE 4.35 11.79 -4.2
TATAR, TOMAS 16.76 7.38 3.5
KADRI, NAZEM 36.01 -7.94 24
STROME, RYAN -0.8 8.68 -4.3
PAVELSKI, JOE 22.78 13.59 3.1
DOAN, SHANE 6.12 -4.61 4.7
ERIKSSON, LOUI 20.42 -10.63 15.3
THORNTON, JOE 28.03 18.36 2.1
WILSON, COLIN 19.65 -11.32 14.4
GRABOVSKI, MIKHAIL 9.45 6.16 1.2
HUDLER, JIRI 2.37 12.81 -5.1
DUCHENE, MATT 5.93 -2.37 3.9
ELLER, LARS 6.91 8.94 -1.1
TARASENKO, VLADIMIR 25.7 4.37 11.2
NIELSEN, FRANS 7.08 -11.55 7.8
FORSBERG, FILIP 32.55 -2.51 17.9
SMITH, REILLY 8.12 -4.43 6
PARISE, ZACH 8.59 10.29 -1.1
ANISIMOV, ARTEM 33.21 17.6 12.9
TERRY, CHRIS 11.3 14.38 -1.8
STEEN, ALEXANDER 7.47 -0.54 3.7
CULLEN, MATT 10.53 -0.04 5.2
LEE, ANDERS 10.85 9.07 0.3
MALKIN, EVGENI 16.9 0.91 7.4
SHEAHAN, RILEY 5.38 8.79 -2.6

Here’s the data pulled from stats.hockeyanalysis.com

LARSSON When on ice Against Opponent not against LARSSON
Player TOI CF60 CA60 CF% TOI CF60 CA60 CF%
CROSBY, SIDNEY 66:29:00 36.1 55.95 39.2 2278:46:00 64.14 51.34 55.5
FOLIGNO, NICK 55:02:00 57.78 49.06 54.1 2026:35:00 53.44 51.49 50.9
STEPAN, DEREK 52:31:00 41.13 55.98 42.4 1776:18:00 53.91 59.01 47.7
ATKINSON, CAM 52:14:00 53.99 36.76 59.5 1980:13:00 56.12 58.96 48.8
PACIORETTY, MAX 51:27:00 24.49 48.98 33.3 2165:33:00 64.94 55.91 53.7
KREIDER, CHRIS 50:27:00 36.87 57.09 39.2 2052:04:00 56.93 56.23 50.3
OVECHKIN, ALEX 48:26:00 38.4 55.75 40.8 2351:34:00 62.95 54.53 53.6
STAAL, JORDAN 47:28:00 30.34 60.67 33.3 1763:58:00 60.89 46.8 56.5
ZUCCARELLO, MATS 46:49:00 35.88 62.8 36.4 2263:36:00 55.64 54.74 50.4
GIROUX, CLAUDE 46:43:00 37.25 50.09 42.6 2255:54:00 62.29 55.72 52.8
LINDHOLM, ELIAS 46:42:00 29.55 53.96 35.4 2128:59:00 61.24 52.42 53.9
BAILEY, JOSH 45:18:00 58.28 45.03 56.4 2027:34:00 60.46 58.18 51
OKPOSO, KYLE 44:52:00 42.79 61.52 41 1971:33:00 60.38 54.41 52.6
HUBERDEAU, JONATHAN 44:17:00 31.16 51.49 37.7 2077:55:00 53.27 52.96 50.1
BARKOV, ALEKSANDER 43:40:00 27.48 52.21 34.5 1840:17:00 52.65 51.51 50.5
SCHENN, BRAYDEN 43:27:00 29 58 33.3 2054:40:00 58.29 57.47 50.4
BERGERON, PATRICE 42:48:00 40.65 82.71 33 2086:41:00 64.75 47.9 57.5
PLEKANEC, TOMAS 42:01:00 25.7 64.26 28.6 2184:17:00 59.5 56.67 51.2
VORACEK, JAKUB 42:01:00 34.27 55.69 38.1 2115:58:00 61.28 53.82 53.2
WILLIAMS, JUSTIN 40:29:00 47.43 59.28 44.4 2128:17:00 61.49 49.81 55.2
PERRY, COREY 40:17:00 20.85 47.66 30.4 2048:12:00 56.6 53.32 51.5
GETZLAF, RYAN 39:46:00 31.68 43.76 42 2141:19:00 58.7 51.02 53.5
JOHANSEN, RYAN 39:21:00 45.74 53.37 46.2 2219:56:00 53.41 56.16 48.7
RASK, VICTOR 38:56:00 43.15 50.86 45.9 1997:21:00 58.49 54.67 51.7
KUZNETSOV, EVGENY 38:48:00 40.21 57.22 41.3 2025:11:00 55.67 53.09 51.2
NEAL, JAMES 38:28:00 35.88 45.23 44.2 2153:51:00 63.21 51.17 55.3
JENNER, BOONE 38:16:00 43.9 39.2 52.8 1510:27:00 53.35 60.34 46.9
KOPITAR, ANZE 38:01:00 39.46 42.61 48.1 2255:59:00 63.67 45.4 58.4
SAAD, BRANDON 37:04:00 33.99 33.99 50 2105:13:00 59.11 55.21 51.7
DUBINSKY, BRANDON 37:03:00 51.82 37.25 58.2 1575:18:00 57.55 56.29 50.6
JAGR, JAROMIR 36:28:00 24.68 57.59 30 2144:21:00 52.21 48.83 51.7
KUNITZ, CHRIS 36:19:00 31.39 56.17 35.8 2080:59:00 65.02 50.14 56.5
HARTNELL, SCOTT 36:10:00 53.09 46.45 53.3 2039:06:00 56.67 55.5 50.5
BRASSARD, DERICK 35:59:00 40.02 53.36 42.9 2181:30:00 55.75 55.97 49.9
MARCHAND, BRAD 35:58:00 36.7 86.75 29.7 2082:51:00 65.48 51.28 56.1
PERRON, DAVID 35:46:00 30.2 55.36 35.3 1985:29:00 59.08 50.68 53.8
SIMMONDS, WAYNE 35:33:00 40.51 35.44 53.3 1953:41:00 59.76 55.37 51.9
HORNQVIST, PATRIC 35:17:00 45.91 59.52 43.5 1919:10:00 62.87 50.05 55.7
HAGELIN, CARL 34:51:00 30.99 46.48 40 2069:57:00 59.48 52.03 53.3
BACKSTROM, NICKLAS 34:49:00 43.08 41.36 51 2253:40:00 61.13 53.91 53.1
TAVARES, JOHN 34:47:00 55.2 60.37 47.8 2457:32:00 64.04 56.18 53.3
SKINNER, JEFF 34:18:00 54.23 38.48 58.5 2082:31:00 56.87 54.51 51.1
RIBEIRO, MIKE 34:07:00 47.48 54.52 46.6 2294:56:00 65.2 49.36 56.9
NORDSTROM, JOAKIM 33:31:00 30.43 53.7 36.2 1304:42:00 51.37 51.78 49.8
STAAL, ERIC 33:25:00 26.93 57.46 31.9 2328:50:00 64.38 49.83 56.4
KESSEL, PHIL 32:34:00 35.01 49.74 41.3 2247:58:00 59.15 59.92 49.7
MILLER, J.T. 32:13:00 52.15 44.7 53.8 1715:35:00 55.29 55.33 50
GALCHENYUK, ALEX 31:48:00 45.28 73.58 38.1 2082:12:00 61.44 56.33 52.2
ENNIS, TYLER 31:31:00 55.21 45.69 54.7 1457:58:00 43.13 67.99 38.8
LUCIC, MILAN 31:19:00 61.31 45.98 57.1 2251:07:00 63.38 51.01 55.4
GALLAGHER, BRENDAN 31:10:00 30.8 73.16 29.6 1759:19:00 66.16 54.98 54.6
NELSON, BROCK 31:03:00 61.84 50.24 55.2 1955:04:00 57.88 56.19 50.7
MOULSON, MATT 31:02:00 58 42.53 57.7 1843:55:00 46.66 60.3 43.6
GAUDREAU, JOHNNY 30:37:00 58.79 47.03 55.6 2270:27:00 54.41 58.69 48.1
KOMAROV, LEO 30:35:00 25.5 51.01 33.3 1567:22:00 57.11 55.39 50.8
KANE, PATRICK 30:09:00 31.84 59.7 34.8 2184:52:00 58.93 53.39 52.5
ZETTERBERG, HENRIK 29:43:00 38.36 26.25 59.4 2309:30:00 52.61 48.11 52.2
RYAN, BOBBY 29:31:00 32.52 60.98 34.8 2066:09:00 54.42 59.36 47.8
JOHANSSON, MARCUS 29:23:00 53.09 51.05 51 1966:46:00 55.31 52.69 51.2
RAFFL, MICHAEL 29:13:00 24.64 78.04 24 1852:45:00 61.69 50.07 55.2
HAYES, KEVIN 29:00:00 24.83 39.31 38.7 1822:22:00 54.75 54.42 50.2
MONAHAN, SEAN 28:24:00 54.93 50.7 52 2286:56:00 53.47 60.63 46.9
ZIBANEJAD, MIKA 28:19:00 31.78 59.33 34.9 1997:01:00 57.21 59.37 49.1
LANDESKOG, GABRIEL 28:06:00 36.3 46.98 43.6 2174:09:00 53.37 60.38 46.9
FAST, JESPER 28:03:00 40.64 38.5 51.4 1539:42:00 52.33 54.6 48.9
DESHARNAIS, DAVID 27:50:00 38.8 53.89 41.9 1953:00:00 58.19 55.61 51.1
SEDIN, DANIEL 27:44:00 32.45 69.23 31.9 2178:45:00 53.34 50.07 51.6
ABDELKADER, JUSTIN 27:32:00 37.05 26.15 58.6 1997:57:00 51.77 46.79 52.5
SEDIN, HENRIK 27:28:00 32.77 69.9 31.9 2079:40:00 54.33 49.97 52.1
DATSYUK, PAVEL 27:21:00 37.29 46.07 44.7 1901:47:00 60.39 42.59 58.6
O_REILLY, RYAN 27:09:00 35.36 46.41 43.2 2183:11:00 51.7 57.22 47.5
NESTRASIL, ANDREJ 27:06:00 26.57 57.56 31.6 1314:53:00 59.82 46.86 56.1
WINNIK, DANIEL 26:53:00 42.41 42.41 50 1861:32:00 55.08 53.86 50.6
GRANLUND, MIKAEL 26:47:00 44.8 49.28 47.6 2058:46:00 58.96 56.28 51.2
BURAKOVSKY, ANDRE 26:45:00 56.07 42.62 56.8 1517:30:00 60.42 54.41 52.6
TATAR, TOMAS 26:41:00 42.72 35.98 54.3 1953:59:00 59.48 43.36 57.8
KADRI, NAZEM 26:40:00 24.75 65.25 27.5 2083:33:00 60.76 57.31 51.5
STROME, RYAN 26:24:00 63.64 50 56 1863:53:00 62.84 58.68 51.7
PAVELSKI, JOE 26:21:00 40.99 36.43 52.9 2330:33:00 63.77 50.02 56
DOAN, SHANE 26:20:00 50.13 63.8 44 2079:55:00 56.25 59.19 48.7
ERIKSSON, LOUI 25:52:00 37.11 62.63 37.2 2201:44:00 57.53 52 52.5
THORNTON, JOE 25:48:00 37.21 30.23 55.2 2176:54:00 65.24 48.59 57.3
WILSON, COLIN 25:43:00 42 62.99 40 1767:31:00 61.65 51.67 54.4
GRABOVSKI, MIKHAIL 25:31:00 51.73 49.38 51.2 1318:03:00 61.18 55.54 52.4
HUDLER, JIRI 25:20:00 49.74 45 52.5 1949:10:00 52.11 57.81 47.4
DUCHENE, MATT 25:19:00 45.03 66.36 40.4 2285:07:00 50.96 63.99 44.3
ELLER, LARS 25:17:00 47.46 45.09 51.3 1939:57:00 54.37 54.03 50.2
TARASENKO, VLADIMIR 25:02:00 35.95 47.94 42.9 2176:03:00 61.65 52.31 54.1
NIELSEN, FRANS 25:01:00 52.76 67.16 44 1815:50:00 59.84 55.61 51.8
FORSBERG, FILIP 24:59:00 33.62 52.84 38.9 2197:02:00 66.17 50.33 56.8
SMITH, REILLY 24:36:00 48.78 53.66 47.6 2072:05:00 56.9 49.23 53.6
PARISE, ZACH 24:32:00 51.36 46.47 52.5 2014:38:00 59.95 56.76 51.4
ANISIMOV, ARTEM 24:22:00 22.16 36.94 37.5 1664:27:00 55.37 54.54 50.4
TERRY, CHRIS 24:03:00 42.41 39.92 51.5 1329:19:00 53.71 54.3 49.7
STEEN, ALEXANDER 23:59 50.03 55.04 47.6 1956:29:00 57.5 54.5 51.3
CULLEN, MATT 23:58 45.06 52.57 46.2 1553:15:00 55.59 52.53 51.4
LEE, ANDERS 23:57 52.61 47.6 52.5 1811:34:00 63.46 56.67 52.8
MALKIN, EVGENI 23:53 45.22 50.24 47.4 1761:50:00 62.12 51.15 54.8
SHEAHAN, RILEY 23:48 47.9 37.82 55.9 1851:17:00 53.28 46.61 53.3

Russian Draft (10 Year Look Back)

In the last 10 years there were 100 Russian’s selected in the NHL entry draft.  The average team has selected just over 3 Russians.  The Oiler’s surprisingly, have selected more Russians than your averaged team.

  • NHL averages 10 Russians per draft in various leagues.  By eye it looks like an even split between the MHL, KHL & CHL.  I will have a deeper look later on.
  • There has been an increase in Russian drafted players the last three years: 2014 (13 Russians drafted), 2015 (18) & 2016 (17).
  • There were 11 goalies, 25 defenseman & 64 Russian players selected.
  • The breakdown by teams; Capitals (7 Russians selected), Kings, Islanders, Flyers & Lightning (6), Oilers, Rangers, Leafs (5), Panthers, Canadiens, Blues, Thrashers/Jets (4), Sabres, Hawks, Blue Jackets, Red Wings, Predators, Penguins, Sharks, Stars (3), Bruins, Flames, Avalanche, Wild, Devils, Canucks (2), Ducks, Coyotes (1) & Hurricanes & Senators (0)
  • The ‘Russian factor’ hasn’t impacted first round selections.  There have been 20 Russians selected in the first 30 selections.  Russians are also more likely to be selected in the final 30 picks in the NHL entry draft.

Here is a list of the Russian drafted players, the team that drafted them and their draft number.

# Team Player
76 Anaheim Ducks  Igor Bobkov (G)
28 Arizona Coyotes  Viktor Tikhonov (W/C)
8 Atlanta Thrashers  Alexander Burmistrov (C/W)
101 Atlanta Thrashers  Ivan Telegin (W/C)
40 Boston Bruins  Alexander Khokhlachev (C/W)
195 Boston Bruins  Maxim Chudinov (D)
12 Buffalo Sabres  Mikhail Grigorenko (C/W)
16 Buffalo Sabres  Nikita Zadorov (D)
190 Buffalo Sabres  Vasili Glotov (LW)
136 Calgary Flames  Pavel Karnaukhov (LW/C)
187 Calgary Flames  Rushan Rafikov (D)
50 Chicago Blackhawks  Artur Kayumov (LW)
109 Chicago Blackhawks  Maxim Shalunov (RW/C)
179 Chicago Blackhawks  Ivan Nalimov (G)
101 Colorado Avalanche  Andrei Mironov (D)
161 Colorado Avalanche  Sergei Boikov (D)
6 Columbus Blue Jackets  Nikita Filatov (LW/RW)
65 Columbus Blue Jackets  Vitali Abramov (RW/LW)
159 Columbus Blue Jackets  Vladislav Gavrikov (D)
10 Dallas Stars  Valeri Nichushkin (RW/LW)
12 Dallas Stars  Denis Guryanov (RW/LW)
183 Dallas Stars  Dmitri Sinitsyn (D)
19 Detroit Red Wings  Yevgeni Svechnikov (LW/RW)
201 Detroit Red Wings  Alexander Kadeykin (C
205 Detroit Red Wings  Alexei Marchenko (D)
1 Edmonton Oilers  Nail Yakupov (RW/LW)
83 Edmonton Oilers  Bogdan Yakimov (C)
88 Edmonton Oilers  Anton Slepyshev (LW/RW)
91 Edmonton Oilers  Daniil Zharkov (LW)
209 Edmonton Oilers  Ziyat Paigin (D)
14 Florida Panthers  Dmitri Kulikov (D)
114 Florida Panthers  Alexander Delnov (LW/RW)
124 Florida Panthers  Yaroslav Kosov (LW/RW)
175 Florida Panthers  Maxim Mamin (LW/RW)
32 Los Angeles Kings  Vyacheslav Voynov (D)
37 Los Angeles Kings  Valentin Zykov (LW/RW)
74 Los Angeles Kings  Alexander Dergachyov (C/RW)
121 Los Angeles Kings  Nikolai Prokhorkin (LW/C)
123 Los Angeles Kings  Andrei Loktionov (C)
158 Los Angeles Kings  Maxim Kitsyn (LW)
135 Minnesota Wild  Kirill Kaprizov (LW/RW)
196 Minnesota Wild  Dmitri Sokolov (C/W)
9 Montréal Canadiens  Mikhail Sergachyov (D)
26 Montréal Canadiens  Nikita Scherbak (RW/LW)
109 Montréal Canadiens  Alexander Avtsin (RW)
138 Montréal Canadiens  Maxim Trunyov (RW/LW)
42 Nashville Predators  Vladislav Kamenev (C/LW)
55 Nashville Predators  Yakov Trenin (C/LW)
168 Nashville Predators  Konstantin Volkov (G)
102 New Jersey Devils  Mikhail Maltsev (LW)
132 New Jersey Devils  Yegor Rykov (D)
63 New York Islanders  Andrey Pedan (D)
65 New York Islanders  Kirill Kabanov (RW/LW)
73 New York Islanders  Kirill Petrov (RW/LW)
78 New York Islanders  Ilya Sorokin (G)
95 New York Islanders  Anatoli Golyshev (LW/RW)
122 New York Islanders  Anton Klementyev (D)
75 New York Rangers  Pavel Buchnevich (W/C)
75 New York Rangers  Yevgeni Grachyov (C/W)
79 New York Rangers  Sergei Zborovsky (D)
118 New York Rangers  Igor Shestyorkin (G)
200 New York Rangers  Mikhail Pashnin (D)
7 Philadelphia Flyers  Ivan Provorov (D)
22 Philadelphia Flyers  German Rubtsov (C)
104 Philadelphia Flyers  Mikhail Vorobyov (C)
168 Philadelphia Flyers  Radel Fazleyev (C/W)
188 Philadelphia Flyers  Ivan Fedotov (G)
201 Philadelphia Flyers  Valeri Vasilyev (D)
150 Pittsburgh Penguins  Alexander Pechursky (G)
173 Pittsburgh Penguins  Anton Zlobin (RW/LW)
197 Pittsburgh Penguins  Nikita Pavlychev (C)
27 San Jose Sharks  Nikolai Goldobin (LW/RW)
166 San Jose Sharks  Daniil Sobchenko (C)
207 San Jose Sharks  Emil Galimov (RW)
16 St. Louis Blues  Vladimir Tarasenko (RW)
33 St. Louis Blues  Ivan Barbashyov (C/LW)
52 St. Louis Blues  Maxim Letunov (C)
78 St. Louis Blues  Sergei Andronov (W/C)
19 Tampa Bay Lightning  Andrei Vasilevsky (G)
27 Tampa Bay Lightning  Vladislav Namestnikov (C/LW)
58 Tampa Bay Lightning  Nikita Kucherov (RW)
148 Tampa Bay Lightning  Nikita Nesterov (D)
178 Tampa Bay Lightning  Oleg Sosunov (D)
202 Tampa Bay Lightning  Nikita Gusev (LW)
31 Toronto Maple Leafs  Yegor Korshkov (RW)
68 Toronto Maple Leafs  Rinat Valiyev (D)
122 Toronto Maple Leafs  Vladimir Bobylyov (W/C)
182 Toronto Maple Leafs  Nikolai Chebykin (RW/LW)
185 Toronto Maple Leafs  Nikita Korostelev (RW/LW)
66 Vancouver Canucks  Nikita Tryamkin (D)
114 Vancouver Canucks  Dmitri Zhukenov (C)
22 Washington Capitals  Ilya Samsonov (G)
26 Washington Capitals  Yevgeni Kuznetsov (C)
55 Washington Capitals  Dmitri Orlov (D)
58 Washington Capitals  Dmitri Kugryshev (RW/LW)
86 Washington Capitals  Stanislav Galiev (RW/LW)
203 Washington Capitals  Sergei Kostenko (G)
207 Washington Capitals  Dmitri Zaitsev (D)
157 Winnipeg Jets  Mikhail Berdin (G)
164 Winnipeg Jets  Pavel Kraskovsky (C)

Here are the number of players selected from 1st – 7th round.  Please note that based on whethre there was a compensation picks or not there might been selections in later rounds.

Draft # # of Selections
1 – 30 20
31 – 60 12
61 – 90 16
91 – 120 11
121 – 150 11
151 – 180 12
181 + 18

There were 11 goalies; Igor Bobkov (G), Ivan Nalimov (G), Konstantin Volkov (G), Ilya Sorokin (G), Ivan Fedotov (G), Igor Shestyorkin (G), Alexander Pechursky (G), Andrei Vasilevsky (G), Ilya Samsonov (G), Sergei Kostenko (G) & Mikhail Berdin (G).

There are 25 defenseman – Maxim Chudinov (D), Nikita Zadorov (D), Rushan Rafikov (D), Andrei Mironov (D),  Sergei Boikov (D), Vladislav Gavrikov (D), Dmitri Sinitsyn (D), Alexei Marchenko (D), Ziyat Paigin (D), Dmitri Kulikov (D),  Vyacheslav Voynov (D), Mikhail Sergachyov (D), Yegor Rykov (D), Andrey Pedan (D), Anton Klementyev (D), Sergei Zborovsky (D), Mikhail Pashnin (D), Ivan Provorov (D), Valeri Vasilyev (D), Nikita Nesterov (D), Oleg Sosunov (D), Rinat Valiyev (D), Dmitri Orlov (D), Dmitri Zaitsev (D) & Nikita Tryamkin (D)

There were 64 forwards selected in the last ten drafts;  Nail Yakupov (RW/LW),  Nikita Filatov (LW/RW),  Alexander Burmistrov (C/W),  Valeri Nichushkin (RW/LW),  Mikhail Grigorenko (C/W),  Denis Guryanov (RW/LW),  Vladimir Tarasenko (RW),  Yevgeni Svechnikov (LW/RW),  German Rubtsov (C),  Nikita Scherbak (RW/LW),  Yevgeni Kuznetsov (C)
Nikolai Goldobin (LW/RW),  Vladislav Namestnikov (C/LW),  Viktor Tikhonov (W/C),  Yegor Korshkov (RW),  Ivan Barbashyov (C/LW),  Valentin Zykov (LW/RW),  Alexander Khokhlachev (C/W),  Vladislav Kamenev (C/LW),  Artur Kayumov (LW),  Maxim Letunov (C)
Yakov Trenin (C/LW),  Nikita Kucherov (RW),  Dmitri Kugryshev (RW/LW),  Vitali Abramov (RW/LW),  Kirill Kabanov (RW/LW),  Kirill Petrov (RW/LW),  Alexander Dergachyov (C/RW)
Pavel Buchnevich (W/C),  Yevgeni Grachyov (C/W),  Sergei Andronov (W/C),  Bogdan Yakimov (C)
Stanislav Galiev (RW/LW),  Anton Slepyshev (LW/RW),  Daniil Zharkov (LW),  Anatoli Golyshev (LW/RW),  Ivan Telegin (W/C),  Mikhail Maltsev (LW),  Mikhail Vorobyov (C),  Maxim Shalunov (RW/C),  Alexander Avtsin (RW),  Alexander Delnov (LW/RW),  Dmitri Zhukenov (C)
Nikolai Prokhorkin (LW/C),  Vladimir Bobylyov (W/C),  Andrei Loktionov (C),  Yaroslav Kosov (LW/RW),  Kirill Kaprizov (LW/RW),  Pavel Karnaukhov (LW/C),  Maxim Trunyov (RW/LW)
Maxim Kitsyn (LW),  Pavel Kraskovsky (C),  Daniil Sobchenko (C),  Radel Fazleyev (C/W),  Anton Zlobin (RW/LW),  Maxim Mamin (LW/RW),  Nikolai Chebykin (RW/LW),  Nikita Korostelev (RW/LW)
Vasili Glotov (LW),  Dmitri Sokolov (C/W),  Nikita Pavlychev (C),  Alexander Kadeykin (C),  Nikita Gusev (LW),  Emil Galimov (RW)

Next, I will look at the goalies, defenseman and forwards separately and find out how they scored in their draft years and compared them to the draft years.