September When It Comes

During my draft review.  There’s always people that catch my eye more than others.  Nicholas Caamano was one of those players.  Besides, the fact that he has a great name – Cammano – I was intrigued by his scouting report.  A physical two-way winger with good size, but I noticed his numbers weren’t necessarily strong.  Caamano is averaging under .6 points per game, so that would put him as either  a long shot or, at best a 3rd line player.

Then I looked at this date of birth and noticed Caamano was a week and a couple of days away from being 2017 draft eligible.

Every year these players compete against each other in hockey, as well as academics and other athletics only to be segmented by a day in the middle of the month.  What type of impact does that day have on men born in the first two weeks of the month versus the boys drafted in the last couple of weeks?

I plan to crawl outside these walls, close my eyes and see
and fall into the heart and arms of those who wait for me
I cannot move a mountain now, I can no longer run
I cannot be who I was then, in a way, I never was.

Every year these players compete against each other in hockey, as well as academics and other athletics only to be segmented by a day in the middle of the month.  What type of impact does that day have on men born in the first two weeks of the month versus the boys drafted in the last couple of weeks?

I took a look at 17 forwards, born in the month of September and looked at their 17 year-old (calendar year) points per game versus their 18 year-old calendar year.

Player 17 18
John Tavares 2 1.86
Daymond Langkow 1.36 1.94
Alexander Khokhlachev 1.13 1.23
Ethan Moreau 1.12 1.66
Derick Brassard 1.1 2
Zach Hamill 1.11 1.34
Nino Niederreiter 0.92 1.27
Anthony Mantha 0.81 1.32
Joffrey Lupul 0.81 1.47
Eric Fehr 0.79 1.18
David Desharnais 0.73 1.43
James Neal 0.66 0.88
Gabriel Bourque 0.43 1.02
Nic Spaling 0.4 0.97
Craig Cunningham 0.37 0.71
Cal O’Reilly 0.34 1.07
Matt Cooke 0.31 1.46

There were three players who were not drafted during their 17 year-old season; David Desharnais (Undrafted), Craig Cunningham (passed over twice) & Matt Cooke.

Here were some observations.

  • Players in their second year scored nearly 90% more than their 17 year old season.
  • Players that scored below 1 PPG (in their 17 year old season) had a 120% increase.
  • Wherease as players that were above .9 PPG had an increase of 33%.
  • This does not take into account players that were drafted and did NOT make the NHL.  This is a best case scenario.

There is likely a reason why players that average near or above a point a game do not have a bigger impact.

  • They are likely already given top line minutes or at the very least top six minutes.  I don’t believe we have TOI totals for Canadian Major junior so we have to go based on projections.
  • They are likely given less power play time.

So what is a realistic projection for a player drafted late in their draft year?  Well, based on the players that have made the NHL players averaging under one point per game will double their point production.  I guess that’s an optimistic projection, but not a realistic one.  It doesn’t take into affect the players that didn’t make the NHL.     There’s likely a longer list of players where the production was stagnate or a modest increase.  In order to project this accurately I would have to look at all players that are in a similar situation and then base it off of the projection.  Because I’m lazy and it looks like a lot of work.  Let’s just say that a player earlier on in the process is starting out his journey and is likely to take a bigger step.

In the 2016 draft class guys to be aware of that are a month or less away from being in the 2017 draft class; Brandon Hagel (8/27 / .65 PPG), Travis Barron (8/17 / .62 PPG) & Cameron Morrison (8/27 / 1.1 PPG – in USHL).

On the other side of the spectrum players that were a month away from being in the 2015 draft class; Julien Gauthier (10/15 / 1.06 PPG), Jordy Stallard (9/18 DOB / .72 PPG) & Ty Ronning (10/20 / .88 PPG)

Which brings me back to Caamano; born Sept. 7th, 6’1, averaging .58 PPG.

  • Is he worth drafting?
  • Where should he be drafted?
  • How much did he play on power play?
  • How much did he play on the top line?

If, you feel that next year he will get added responsibility with power play, if you feel that he will play on the top line, if you feel like he will continue to improve as a hockey player and if you feel he negatively affected by the hot mess that was the Flint Firebirds than perhaps Caamano is worth an early mid-round (3rd round) selection.

If you can wait and be patient for a young kid and see whether his journey is nearly told or whether it has just begun, depending upon when in September he was born.

 

 

 

 

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