Monthly Archives: July 2016

Russian D-Man (Draft Year)

In the past 10 years 25 defenseman from Russia were selected in the NHL Entry Draft.  I am going to look at how the players drd during their 1st draft eligible year.  That does not mean that they were selected in their first year players such as Yegor Rykov who was drafted this past year was in his second year of eligibility.

# Team Player H DOB
7 Philadelphia Flyers  Ivan Provorov (D) 6’1 1/13/1997
9 Montréal Canadiens  Mikhail Sergachyov (D) 6’4 6/25/1998
14 Florida Panthers  Dmitri Kulikov (D) 6′ 10/29/1990
16 Buffalo Sabres  Nikita Zadorov (D) 6’5 4/16/1995
32 Los Angeles Kings  Vyacheslav Voynov (D) 6′ 1/15/1990
55 Washington Capitals  Dmitri Orlov (D) 5’11 7/23/1991
63 New York Islanders  Andrey Pedan (D) 6’5 7/3/1993
66 Vancouver Canucks  Nikita Tryamkin (D) 6’8 8/30/1994
68 Toronto Maple Leafs  Rinat Valiyev (D) 6’2 5/11/1995
79 New York Rangers  Sergei Zborovsky (D) 6’5 2/21/1997
101 Colorado Avalanche  Andrei Mironov (D) 6’2 7/29/1994
122 New York Islanders  Anton Klementyev (D) 6′ 3/25/1990
132 New Jersey Devils  Yegor Rykov (D) 6’2 4/14/1997
148 Tampa Bay Lightning  Nikita Nesterov (D) 5’11 3/28/1993
159 Columbus Blue Jackets  Vladislav Gavrikov (D) 6’3 11/21/1995
161 Colorado Avalanche  Sergei Boikov (D) 6’2 1/24/1996
178 Tampa Bay Lightning  Oleg Sosunov (D) 6’8 4/13/1998
183 Dallas Stars  Dmitri Sinitsyn (D) 6’2 6/17/1994
187 Calgary Flames  Rushan Rafikov (D) 6’2 5/15/1995
195 Boston Bruins  Maxim Chudinov (D) 5’11 3/25/1990
200 New York Rangers  Mikhail Pashnin (D) 6’1 5/11/1989
201 Philadelphia Flyers  Valeri Vasilyev (D) 6’1 5/31/1994
205 Detroit Red Wings  Alexei Marchenko (D) 6’2 1/2/1992
207 Washington Capitals  Dmitri Zaitsev (D) 6’1 1/18/1998
209 Edmonton Oilers  Ziyat Paigin (D) 6’6 2/8/1995

Canadian Major Junior

  • CHL is consisted of QMJHL, OHL & WHL.
  • Seven players played their 17 year-old draft season in Canadian Major Junior hockey.
  • Six of the seven players were selected inside the first 80 selections.  In fact seven of the first 10 Russian players selected played in the CHL.

17 Year-Old Season

Player PPG League
 Ivan Provorov (D) 1.02 WHL
 Mikhail Sergachyov (D) 0.85 OHL
 Dmitri Kulikov (D) 1.09 QMJHL
 Nikita Zadorov (D) 0.24 OHL
 Andrey Pedan (D) 0.24 OHL
 Sergei Zborovsky (D) 0.27 WHL
Sergei Boikov 0.18 QMJHL
  • The average PPG is .56
  • There will be more context after I have a chance to look at CHL numbers but Provorov, Sergachyov & Kulikov produced good-to-excellent offensive numbers.
  • Zadorov, Pedan and Zborovsky are big players both over 6’5 and produced low offensive numbers.
  • Boikov was drafted as an overage player.

 

Russia – KHL & Russia SuperLeague

Player League Pts/G GP PTS
 Vyacheslav Voynov (D) Russia-SL 0.11 36 4
 Dmitri Orlov (D) KHL 0.07 15 1
 Maxim Chudinov (D) Russia 0.00 18 0

 

There were only three players selected in the NHL that played the majority of their first draft eligible season in the KHL/Russian SuperLeague.  The Russian SuperLeague was the KHL before the KHL.

If a prospect is playing at this level they should strongly be considered a draft prospect.  Both Orlov and Voynov were early selections (both second round picks), whereas Chudinov was a 7th round pick.

  • Voynov, legal issues aside, was a legit top four defenseman.
  • Orlov has 60 points in 200 NHL games.  He plays predominately 3rd pairing minutes with the Capitals.
  • Chudinov likely has enough talent to play in the NHL.  He is one of the top defenseman in the KHL and, I believe, he is signed for two more seasons.

There’s very little data to make any judgement on.  Other than to say that if a 17 year-old is playing in the KHL, regardless of their PPG, there is a good chance that he will have a shot in the NHL.  Draft the kid.

MHL

Player League Pts/G GP PTS
 Alexei Marchenko (D) MHL 0.79 43 34
 Yegor Rykov (D) MHL 0.50 42 21
 Nikita Nesterov (D) MHL 0.41 46 19
 Vladislav Gavrikov (D) MHL 0.27 45 12
 Anton Klementyev (D) Russia-3 0.26 68 18
 Nikita Tryamkin (D) MHL 0.20 60 12
 Rushan Rafikov (D) MHL 0.19 53 10
 Andrei Mironov (D) MHL 0.15 59 9
 Valeri Vasilyev (D) MHL 0.11 18 2
  • MHL is the top Junior league within Russia.  Unlike the CHL the teams may have an affiliation with a KHL team.  Here is a HF boards thread which discusses the MHL.
  • The average Pts/G is .32
  • Both Marchenko, Nesterov & the colossal (6’8) Trymakin have played in the NHL.
  • Outside of  Nikita Tryamkin all the players that averaged under .4 PPG do not appear to be on target to be NHL players.  All of the > .4 PPG prospects, with the exception of Tryamkin, are between 6′ – 6’3 and were born in 1990 – 1991.
  • So by quick glance, if you are  drafting out of the MHL they should be above .25 PPG.

MHL B

Player League Pts/G GP PTS
 Ziyat Paigin (D) MHL B 0.51 35 18
 Oleg Sosunov (D) MHL B 0.31 39 12
 Dmitri Sinitsyn (D) MHL B 0.00 7 0
  • There were only three players selected in the MHL-B division.  Each player has his own story.
  • Ziyat Piagin is a big defender that went undrafted in his first two years of eligibility.
  • Oleg Sosunov was drafted this past season, he is another giant defender (6’8), with a nasty side (66 PIMs in 39 games) and was ranked 25th by NHL Central Scouting amongst European skaters.
  • Dmitry Sinitsyn took a weird detour in his hockey career.  His 16 year old season he played with the Dallas Stars U18 midget team.  He was drafted to play with Green Bay in the USHL.  Had a visa issue where he then returned home to play 7 games in the MHL.  He then returned to North America in December and practiced with U of Mass-Lowell but was redshirted, meaning – didn’t play in any games so that he could keep his four years of NCAA eligibility.  Also, he was drafted by the Dallas Stars so with him playing his 15 & 16 year old seasons they likely had some inside information.

Randomness

Player League Pts/G GP PTS
 Rinat Valiyev (D) USHL 0.36 36 13
 Dmitri Zaitsev (D) NAHL 0.42 53 22
 Mikhail Pashnin (D) Russia2 0.05 42 2
  • Three players were drafted in three separate leagues.
  • Valiyev was drafted as an overager.  He had a decent season in the USHL and could have been considered a late round pick.
  • Zaitsev was drafted out of the NAHL, which is a United States junior league.
  • Pashnin was drafted out of Russia2 which is a Russia (minor league) similar to the VHL.

Thoughts

  • I think that the Russian factor hasn’t had an effect on impact Canadian junior prospects (Zadorov, Kulikov, Provorov)
  • If a 17 year-old defenseman is playing in the KHL there’s a good chance he’s a quality prospect.
  • The MHL has been a mixed bag but players that are putting up decent offensive totals (.4+ PPG) are worth a mid-round pick.
  • The NHL like’s drafting big defenseman and the Russian’s have produced some big men.  Six of the twenty-five defenseman were between 6’5 – 6’8 in height!  The average Russian defenseman that was drafted was over 6’2 (74.4 inches).
  • Continuing with height 13 defensemen were between 6’1 – 6’4 and six defenseman were between 5’11 – 6′
  • My fav picks are Chudinov & Marchenko both performed excellent comparably to tother prospects and were chosen in the 7th round.

Russian Goalies

For this part I am going to look at the development path of the Russian goalies.

There were 11 Goalies drafted.  Vasilevsky at 19th overall was the earliest.  Ilya Samsonov was the only other first round pick.  By round here is the number of selections 2nd (0), 3rd (2), 4th & 5th (1), 6th (3) & 7th (2).

The average height of the goalies drafted was 6’2 1/2”.  Four of the goalies drafted were overagers.

I’ll take a look at the players progression in various leagues  from their draft year up until the age 23.  The goal is to identify which statistical variables too look for when drafting a goalie from Russia.  I will circle around and update some of the variables when I look at other European goalies (Czech, Slovakia, ect) that have played in Russian programs.

Here are some of the quick observations;

  • In the first year all goalies were drafted directly out of the top Russian junior league (MHL) the MHL has only been operating for 8 seasons so we don’t have much data on it yet.
  • A goalie should have a minimum SV% of .910 in his draft year in the MHL and should be close to .920.
  • International Tournaments Matter.  Seven of the eleven goalies drafted played in the U18 prior to being drafted.  The average SV% was .927.
  • Only three prospects played in the U20 – Vasilevsky, Samsonov & Bobkov as an 18 year-old.
  • Seven of the nine eligible prospects played in their final year of eligibility.
  • Andrei Vasilevsky is the gold standard.  He  played U20 during his 17 year old season and had a .953 SV%.  He played U17 in his 16 year old season compiled .936 SV%.  He played WC in his 19 year-old season and had a .985 SV%.  Vasilevsky is arguably the  best goalie prospect since Carey Price.
  • Ilya Samsonov had an superb second season compiling a .956 in World Juniors & .925 KHL Save Percentages this past season.  This year he is tracking ahed of Vasilevsky at the same age.
  • Outside of the two first round picks; Igor Shestyorkin (New York Rangers – 4th Rounder) & Ilya Sorokin (3rd Round New York Islanders Pick) are two prospects that are tracking well and worth keeping an eye on.
  • For first year overage goalie prospects they should be providing .920+ SV% in the MHL or playing in a pro league VHL (.915+ SV%) or KHL (.905+ SV%).
  • For two year overage they should be playing in a pro league VHL (.925 SV%)  or KHL (.910+ SV%)

Continue reading

Lucic Regression & Contract Thoughts

I pulled together a list of power forwards from the mid 90’s to today to look at the drop off in offensive production we should expect from Lucic during the contract.

Here is the list of players that I looked into;  Shane Doan, Ryan Clowe, Patrik Elias, Andrew Ladd, Dany Heatley, David Backes, Marion Hossa, Scott Hartnell, Brenden Morrow, Brendan Shanahan, Rick Nash, David Clarkson, Keith Tkachuk, Milan Michalek, Glen Murray, Todd Bertuzzi, Jarome Iginla, Ryan Smyth, Corey Perry, Owen Nolan, Justin Williams, Chris Kunitz, Ryan Kesler, Dustin Brown, Blake Wheeler, Michael Ryder, Joffery Lupul, Brandon Dubinsky.

The numbers were taken from hockey-reference.com, I looked predominately at wingers (exception of Backes & Kesler)  that had  .6 PPG prior to their 27th birthday (with the exception of David Clarkson), were 6’1+ (with the exception of Kunitz) and had a seasons with 50+ PIM’s.  I excluded Alex Ovechkin because I think he’s at an entirely different level as Lucic, I think we can all agree on that right?

There were three groups of players;

  • Players that have played until they were 34/35. (12.5)
    • Shane Doan, Patrik Elias, Marion Hossa, Brendan Morrow, Brendan Shanahan, Keith Tkachuk, Glen Murray, Todd Bertuzzi, Jarome Iginla,
      Ryan Smyth, Justin Williams (played til 34 this will be his 35th year), Chris Kunitz & Owen Nolan (.5 – I’ll explain the .5 in a minute)
  • Players that were either ineffective or injuried. (4.5)
    • Ryan Clowe, Dany Heatley, Joffery Lupul, Owen Nolan (.5)
  • Players that are currently active.  (12)
    • Milan Lucic, Andrew Ladd, David Backes, Scott Hartnell, Rick Nash, David Clarkson, Milan Michalek, Corey Perry, Ryan Kesler, Dustin Brown, Blake Wheeler, Brandon Dubinsky

Owen Nolan.  So Nolan had a clause in his contract that he would get paid during the lockout and a court battle ensued.  After the lockout Nolan sat out a year due to a ‘knee’ injury.  He came back for his 34 & 35th year.  Therefore I gave him a .5 because he didn’t play for two of his 27 – 33 years but he played the final 34 & 35 years.

Please note; the Points / G do not take into effect the games missed by the players during their seasons.  For example Todd Bertuzzi in the season he played at age 31 averaged .73 PPG but missed 67 PPG.  Part of that was I wanted to look at year to year productivity and part of it was I am lazy.

The Age is listed per Hockey-Reference.com.  Hockey Reference has the players age on Feb. 1st of the given hockey season.

About Lucic:

Milan Lucic averaged .68 Pts/G between his 22 birth year to his 27th birth year.  Lucic has been fairly healthy only missing 10 games in his 6 previous seasons in the NHL.  He is, as of now, a legit 1st line forward.  The questions that we need to answer is;

  • How much offensive regression should the Oiler’s expect?
  • How much time missed should we expect?
  • When should we expect the drop off?
  • Is he going to be worth that contract?
  • What about Hall?  (I will not answer that question!)

Here’s a look at the players comparisons 22 – 27 season.

Milan Lucic 0.78 0.75 0.59 0.74 0.54 0.68
Player 22 23 24 25 26 27
Shane Doan 0.28 0.63 0.83 0.6 0.71 0.86
Ryan Clowe 0.11 0.59 0.53 0.73 0.7
Patrik Elias 0.68 1 1.17 0.81 0.7 0.99
Andrew Ladd 0.48 0.6 0.46 0.73 0.61 0.96
Dany Heatley 1.16 0.81 1.26 1.28 1.15
David Backes 0.47 0.43 0.66 0.61 0.76 0.66
Marion Hossa 0.93 0.83 1 1.01 1.15
Scott Hartnell 0.59 0.61 0.54 0.73 0.54
Brendan Morrow 0.54 0.49 0.61 0.6 0.8
Brendan Shanahan 0.88 0.86 1.32 1.26 0.91 1.05
Rick Nash 0.76 0.86 1.01 0.88 0.88 0.72
David Clarkson 0.27 0.39 0.52 0.22 0.58
Keith Tkachuk 1.06 1.29 1.06 0.96 1 0.86
Milan Michalek 0.85 0.7 0.74 0.52 0.5 0.78
Glen Murray 0.2 0.42 0.39 0.74 0.51 0.79
Todd Bertuzzi 0.45 0.5 0.63 0.7 1.18 1.18
Jarome Iginla 0.82 0.92 1.17 0.89 0.9 0.82
Ryan Smyth 0.44 0.66 0.85 0.82 0.92 0.72
Corey Perry 0.77 0.92 0.93 1.2 0.75 0.82
Owen Nolan 1.07 0.85 0.88 0.55 0.58 1.08
Justin Williams 0.56 0.93 0.82 0.81 0.32
Chris Kunitz 0.59 0.74
Ryan Kesler 0.33 0.46 0.72 0.91 0.89 0.64
Dustin Brown 0.57 0.77 0.66 0.68 0.7 0.66
Blake Wheeler 0.56 0.46 0.54 0.8 0.85 0.84
Michael Ryder 0.78   0.68 0.71 0.44
Joffery Lupul 0.65 0.35 0.82 0.63 0.61 0.57
Brandon Dubinsky 0.5 0.64 0.7 0.44 0.69 0.66
  • The average PPG is .74 for the above list.  Lucic is within the range but a little behind.
  • Also, Clarkson should not be a comparison.
Player 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
Shane Doan 0.8 0.75 0.98 0.89 0.67 0.83 0.63
Ryan Clowe 0.83 0.59 0.48 0.77 0.31
Patrik Elias 1.18 0.92 0.74 1.01 0.83 0.77 0.96
Andrew Ladd 0.69 0.77 0.59
Dany Heatley 0.88 1 0.8 0.65 0.58 0.37
David Backes 0.58 0.77 0.73 0.57
Marion Hossa 1.22 0.92 0.96 0.89 0.88 0.95 0.78 0.83
Scott Hartnell 0.6 0.82 0.34 0.67 0.78 0.62
Brendan Morrow 0.78 0.9 0.83 0.61 0.68 0.46 0.57 0.35
Brendan Shanahan 1.09 0.76 0.72 1 0.94 0.94 0.87 0.65
Rick Nash 0.95 0.6 0.87 0.6
David Clarkson 0.5 0.18 0.25
Keith Tkachuk 1.04 1.03 0.98 0.95 0.88 0.73 0.73
Milan Michalek 0.61 0.48 0.52 0.36
Glen Murray 0.61 0.87 1.12 0.74 0.83 0.76 0.48
Todd Bertuzzi 0.87 0.87 0.73 0.59 0.67 0.54 0.56
Jarome Iginla 1.34 1.2 1.09 0.84 1.05 0.82 0.75
Ryan Smyth 0.88 0.96 0.67 0.77 0.79 0.57 0.56
Corey Perry 1.01 0.82 0.76
Owen Nolan 0.86 0.88 0.72 0.74 0.53 0.42
Justin Williams 0.59 0.78 0.72 0.69 0.52 0.51 0.63
Chris Kunitz 0.61 0.65 0.64 0.73 0.74 1.08 0.87 0.54
Ryan Kesler 0.76 0.56 0.58 0.67
Dustin Brown 0.63 0.34 0.33 0.34
Blake Wheeler 0.77 0.95
Michael Ryder 0.72 0.4 0.52 0.76 0.76 0.41 0.4
Joffery Lupul 1.02 1.13 0.64 0.38 0.3
Brandon Dubinsky 0.77 0.64
  • Here is how players played from their 28 – 35 years.
22 – 27 28-35  %
Shane Doan 0.651667 0.792857 121.7%
Ryan Clowe 0.532 0.596 112.0%
Patrik Elias 0.891667 0.915714 102.7%
Andrew Ladd 0.64 0.683333 106.8%
Dany Heatley 1.132 0.713333 63.0%
David Backes 0.598333 0.6625 110.7%
Marion Hossa 0.984 0.92875 94.4%
Scott Hartnell 0.602 0.638333 106.0%
Brendan Morrow 0.608 0.6475 106.5%
Brendan Shanahan 1.046667 0.87125 83.2%
Rick Nash 0.851667 0.755 88.6%
David Clarkson 0.396 0.31 78.3%
Keith Tkachuk 1.038333 0.905714 87.2%
Milan Michalek 0.681667 0.4925 72.2%
Glen Murray 0.508333 0.772857 152.0%
Todd Bertuzzi 0.773333 0.69 89.2%
Jarome Iginla 0.92 1.012857 110.1%
Ryan Smyth 0.735 0.742857 101.1%
Corey Perry 0.898333 0.863333 96.1%
Owen Nolan 0.835 0.691667 82.8%
Justin Williams 0.688 0.634286 92.2%
Chris Kunitz 0.665 0.7325 110.2%
Ryan Kesler 0.658333 0.6425 97.6%
Dustin Brown 0.673333 0.41 60.9%
Blake Wheeler 0.675 0.86 127.4%
Michael Ryder 0.6525 0.567143 86.9%
Joffery Lupul 0.605 0.694 114.7%
Brandon Dubinsky 0.605 0.705 116.5%
98.97%
  • On average a player aged 28 – 35 will produce 98.97% of his offensive production from his previous 22 – 27 seasons.  On averaged from Lucic’s 22nd – 27th year he would score 56 points if fully healthy for an 82 game schedule.  His production, based on averages would drop to a grand-total of 55.

The final two years!  I forgot to put the headings on this chart.  The first is the name, second is the 22 – 33 years, third is the 34 – 35 years and the final one is the 34-35 season divided by 22 – 33 years.  Essentially how much offense have they retained versus their career.

Shane Doan 0.727273 0.73 100.38%
Patrik Elias 0.911818 0.865 94.87%
Marion Hossa 0.976364 0.805 82.45%
Brenden Morrow 0.663636 0.46 69.32%
Brendan Shanahan 0.9775 0.76 77.75%
Keith Tkachuk 1.01 0.73 72.28%
Glen Murray 0.656364 0.62 94.46%
Todd Bertuzzi 0.760909 0.55 72.28%
Jarome Iginla 1.003636 0.785 78.22%
Ryan Smyth 0.770909 0.565 73.29%
Justin Williams 0.821 0.475 57.86%
Chris Kunitz 0.659091 0.63 95.59%
Average 80.73%
  • On average a player a players production would drop by 19.27% in his 34th – 35th years compared to their 22nd – 33rd years.

A player in their 28th – 33rd season can expect to produce at 96% compared to their 24th – 27th season.  I didn’t add the chart, but looked at the numbers.  What’s interesting with Lucic is his 22 & 23 years were his better years.

What should we expect from Lucic?

Based on the players listed above Lucic’s projected points, barring injuries, per game during the life of the contract should be between .65 PPG for the first five seasons and then drop to .54 PPG during the last two years of the deal.

Now this doesn’t factor in that Lucic is likely going to play with McDavid.  So I’d expect those totals to increase but I don’t have any decent stats to back it up.  That was the reason I looked at Chris Kunitz.  Kunitz before being paired with Crosby in Pittsburg put up .61 PPG in Anahiem and since the move to Pittsburgh he’s now averaging .72 PPG.  That number includes his last two seasons (age 35 & 36) which his PPG has dropped to .54 & .51.

Putting everything into consideration if Lucic finds chemistry with McDavid, I think he should realistically expect a 10 – 20% bump in producitivty.  So let’s give him a 10% bump from his projected numbers without McDavid.  I will guess the first 5 years of the deal he should average over .70 Pts/G, if he or McDavid do not have any major injuries.

The Contract Still Sucks!

The current CBA is done in Sept 2022.  But there could be a change to the agreement as early as Sept. 2019.  Per Yahoo – This CBA is a 10-year agreement, but both can choose to opt out after 8 years. The NHL will have first crack to do so by Sept. 1, 2019. If they decline, the NHLPA can decide to opt out by Sept. 19, 2019. The 10-year deal expires Sept. 15, 2022. There’s actually a potential lockout date as early as 2019.  Perhaps the Oiler’s buy-out the last year(s) of the deal if the NHL has another amnesty buy-out after the expiration of the CBA.  Which would essentially be a get out of jail free on the last year(s) of the deal.  A potential lockout was already brought up by Brooksie.

Also, the Cap should go up by roughly 10 million during the last two years of the deal.Cap Projections have the Cap going up by roughly 3% for the last three years.

  • 2016-17 – 73
  • 2017-18 – 75
  • 2018-19 – 77
  • 2018-20 – 79
  • 2020-21 – 81
  • 2021-22 – 83
  • 2022-23 – 85.5

So although there is going to be an estimated 20% drop in player productivity in the final two years of the deal.  There is an estimated  13.5% & 17% increase in cap space for the final two years of the deal.  Those are likely conservative numbers too considering the current Canadian dollar and expansion.There is risk with the contract.  I think there is risk with any contract but I consider this to be a 5 year deal rather than the 7 years it’s reported as.  The final two years he has a 8 / 10 team lists for the final two years of the contract.  So there’s a chance that he could be dealt to a team needing cap space.The Body Will Break Down

  • I looked at the 12 players that have played til 35 to compare the number of games they missed from their 22-27 seasons, 28-35 seasons, 28 – 33 seasons & 34 35 seasons.
  • The numbers were interesting;
Player 22 – 27 28 – 35 28 – 33 34 – 35
Shane Doan 2.33 3.43 2.20 6.50
Patrik Elias 4.33 12.86 17.60 1.00
Marion Hossa 1.60 9.88 10.17 9.00
Brenden Morrow 17.50 19.00 22.83 7.50
Brendan Shanahan 5.33 2.50 2.67 2.00
Keith Tkachuk 11.00 13.57 17.80 3.00
Glen Murray 9.50 11.29 7.40 21.00
Todd Bertuzzi 12.17 15.86 22.00 0.50
Jarome Iginla 3.60 2.00 2.00 2.00
Ryan Smyth 8.00 9.29 13.00 0.00
Justin Williams 17.20 6.14 7.17 0.00
Chris Kunitz 7.00 9.38 8.00 13.50
Average 8.30 9.60 11.07 5.50

I honestly went into this thinking that here is where you would lose value in signing Lucic.  But the data that I pulled doesn’t look that way.  Now, I know that I have removed Lupul & Clowe from the data pool but if a player is on LTIR his cap hit doesn’t count after the start of the season.  Meaning you can hide those dollars.  I would have thought that there would have been more games missed by after a player after turning 28.

Now, I know the data sample is a little low but it’s what I’ve got.

I think that people are assuming that Lucic will completely fall apart.  With most people that’s not the case.  In fact the 34 – 35 year seasons the players were relatively healthy, their production dropped.

Estimated Production

How much does 35 million (real money for the first 5 years) of Katz’s money get us from a production standpoint?  My projected total for the first 5 seasons of Lucic’s deal, which I think is what Chia bought,  is:

360 GP – 105 G – 155 A -260 PTS  (Average season is 72 Games Played with 20 Goal & 52 Points)

What do you think is that worth 7 Million a season?

The final two years (assuming there isn’t a lockout).  There will be a 6 million dollar cap (but only 4.5 million in real dollars) for a 16/17 goal scorer.

144 GP – 33 G – 49 A – 82 PTS

Is it a bad signing?  I’m not sure that I love with the last two years.  I don’t think the signing is as bad as some people are making it out to be.

These are conservative estimates.

Let’s take a look at an optimistic point of view.  There is a chance that Lucic doesn’t miss 10 games a year, based on his history he’s just as likely to miss 10 games in the first 5 years of the contract.  Using Kunitz as a comparison playing with Crosby (& to a certain extent Malkin) during his 29 – 34 the Penguins Left Winger saw a 30% increase in production.  I only did a 10% increase for Lucic.  Let’s say on the positive side that Lucic will see roughly a 35% increase in man-games lost.  That’s just over two games a season rather than the (10 games I projected).  Let’s also use the 30% increase in point production playing with a generational talent during his 24 – 33 season.  That increases his; games to  points per game to .83 and decreases his games lost to 11 total.

  • Games:  399 (80)
  • Goals: 132 (26)
  • Assists: 199 (40)
  • Points 331  (66)