Category Archives: Edmonton Oilers

Kris Russell

I wanted to take a quick look at Kris Russell’s stats with his defense pairings and compared to his defense partner’s and the Flames as a team for the past 3 seasons.  To see if Kris Russell was the black hole defenseman that the analytics community has said that he was.

The team’s 5×5 stats for the Flames for the past three seasons as per stats.hockeyanalysis.com

Team GF60 GA60 GF% SF60 SA60 SF% FF60 FA60 FF% CF60 CA60 CF%
CAL 2.2 2.48 46.9 26.5 28.8 47.9 37 41.1 47.3 51 59.2 46.3

Russell played 3875 minutes in the past three seasons with the Flames and Stars.  The majority of the minutes were with the Flames so we will look at the Flames team.

Player Pos GF60 GA60 GF% CF60 CA60 CF%
RUSSELL, KRIS D 2.65 2.6 50.4 50.4 64.58 43.8 100.0%
WIDEMAN, DENNIS D 2.88 2.59 52.7 52.41 66.14 44.2 47.3%
HAMILTON, DOUGIE D 1.93 2.47 43.9 49.98 61.16 45 14.4%
BRODIE, TJ D 2.47 2.02 55 46.12 60.63 43.2 13.8%
BUTLER, CHRIS D 1.82 2.6 41.2 45.68 69.82 39.6 11.9%
ENGELLAND, DERYK D 3.33 2.22 60 46.21 68.38 40.3 4.2%
GOLIGOSKI, ALEX D 5.12 5.12 50 54.63 64.88 45.7 2.7%
GIORDANO, MARK D 2.61 3.92 40 49.64 62.7 44.2 1.2%

Here’s a chart that shows the % of time Russell has played with over the coarse of the past three seasons.  He’s played predominately with Wideman.

WOWY Impact

Here is a chart that shows the GoalsFor and CorsiFor WOWY and the positive and negative impact that Russell had on his defense partner for the past three seasons.

Teamate GF% CF% GF% CF% GF Impact CF Impact
WIDEMAN 48.3 43.5 39.6 44.1 8.7 -0.6
HAMILTON 51.3 43.6 53.1 54.5 -1.8 -10.9
BRODIE 49.8 43.9 49.8 49.4 0 -5.5
BUTLER 51.5 44.4 44 46.3 7.5 -1.9
ENGELLAND 50 44 41 43.3 9 0.7
GOLIGOSKI 50.5 43.8 54.3 53 -3.8 -9.2
GIORDAN 50.6 43.8 50.5 50.6 0.1 -6.8

The CF% impact is horrible.  Out of the 7 defenseman that Russell played 45+ minutes with in the past three seasons only Engelland had less Corsi events.  However, you need to keep in mind these are three year averages.  Hamilton played with Zdeno Chara (38% of his 5×5 minutes) and their CF% was 56.3% while with the Bruins.  Goligoski has played over 65% of the time with John Klingberg the past two seasons with a GF% of 57.7 & CF% of 55.5 while playing with him.

In the past four seasons 167 Defenseman have played 2000+ minutes  in the NHL 5×5 Kris Russel ranks 161st in CF%, 154th in SF% but he was 84th for GF%.  The GF bump was due to a PDO bump in 2014-15.

How Much of an Impact Did Not Playing With Giordano Have on Kris Russell?

Russell has played nearly three seasons with the Flames and has played only 45 minutes with, in my opinion, the teams best player Mark Giordano.  The team’s shot rates are higher when Giordano is on the ice.  With Giordano on the ice, whom Russel did not play with, the Flames had a CF of 50.6.  Without, Giordano the Flames were 45.1 and Russell’s number is 43.8.  Still below, the team average but is not out of line with the rest of the team’s performance without Girodano.

Giordano has the biggest impact for defenseman on his teams Corsi.  Here is the CF% RelTM (Corsi For % relative to Teamates).

Player Name Team CF% TMCF% CF% RelTM
GIORDANO, MARK Calgary 50.5 45.1 5.3
STRALMAN, ANTON Tampa 55.9 50.6 5.2
KARLSSON, ERIK Ottawa 53 47.9 5.1
CAMPBELL, BRIAN Florida 53.3 48.9 4.4
SMITH, BRENDAN Detroit 55.5 51.1 4.4
MUZZIN, JAKE Los_Angeles 58.8 54.5 4.3
LINDHOLM, HAMPUS Anaheim 53.2 49.4 3.9
HEDMAN, VICTOR Tampa 55 51.1 3.9
SUBBAN, P.K. Montreal 51.4 47.6 3.8
GARDINER, JAKE Toronto 49.9 46.2 3.7

In the past three season’s Mark Giordano & Kris Russell have played just over 31% of their teams minutes and have not played together.  Are we certain that Russell is a bad defenseman or are the Flames a bad team when Giordano (and to a certain extent TJ Brodie) are not on the ice?

The Flames were a tire fire when Giordano wasn’t on the ice.  Only two teams had a CF% of worse than 45 in the past three seasons Colorado and Buffalo.  So obviously, Russell not playing with Giordano impacted his shot rates. How much is another question?

When Russell played with Giordano & Brodie his CF% didn’t increase.  Although you could say that it might be due to the Lefty/Lefty issue.  Although it seems to work out alright for Brodie & Gio.

However, Russell also didn’t differentiate himself from the 5-6 defenseman.  In fact the CF% is slightly less.  Although, Russell was playing higher level of competition.  The Flames played their bottom pairing defenseman fewer 15 minutes game and sheltered minutes.

Why is Russell playing so much?

This I do not understand.  In each of the past three seasons Kris Russell has finished top 15 in Even Strength TOI.  Prior, to that season Russell played under 15 minutes the previous two seasons with St. Louis.

How Did He Play Before Calgary?

2012-13

Player Name CF% TMCF% CF% RelTM
SHATTENKIRK, KEVIN 55.5 50.2 5.2
PIETRANGELO, ALEX 52.3 51.6 0.7
COLE, IAN 52.1 52.4 -0.3
RUSSELL, KRIS 51.1 51.8 -0.7
POLAK, ROMAN 50 52.7 -2.7
LEOPOLD, JORDAN 48.6 48.2 0.4
BOUWMEESTER, JAY 48.5 49.9 -1.4
JACKMAN, BARRET 46.6 54.6 -8

2011-12

Player Name CF% TMCF% CF% RelTM
COLE, IAN 55.1 52.6 2.5
PIETRANGELO, ALEX 55 51.3 3.7
SHATTENKIRK, KEVIN 54.2 51.6 2.5
COLAIACOVO, CARLO 53.9 53.1 0.7
JACKMAN, BARRET 52.6 53.1 -0.5
RUSSELL, KRIS 51.9 51.8 0.1
HUSKINS, KENT 51.4 53.2 -1.8
POLAK, ROMAN 49.8 54.1 -4.3

To me those numbers don’t scream ‘black hole’, Russell isn’t a guy that can drive the offense but he can hold his own by those numbers.  It must be noted that he was playing third pairing and in a a sheltered role.

How did he play after he left Calgary?

Here’s the Dallas Stars Defensemen Numbers this Past Season

Player CF% FF% SF% xGF% SCF% GF%
ALEX.GOLIGOSKI 53.68 53.07 53.84 52.16 51.52 55.4
JAMIE.OLEKSIAK 50.48 54.55 54.3 55.64 51.67 35.29
JASON.DEMERS 54.17 54.28 53.5 55.4 53.54 52.24
JOHN.KLINGBERG 55.59 53.83 55.12 54.29 54.35 57.5
JOHNNY.ODUYA 50.68 50.74 50.12 51.14 46.92 46.39
JORDIE.BENN 48.83 49.53 49.94 49.27 47.83 50
JYRKI.JOKIPAKKA 50.34 49.31 49.31 49.58 51.35 51.06
KRIS.RUSSELL 50.52 56 57.89 52.27 48.21 53.57
PATRIK.NEMETH 51.81 53.29 52.19 53.7 47.26 48.39

Russell’s numbers don’t look out of line with most of these players.  Klingberg was the best defenseman.  I’d say that Russell is behind Jason Demers and Alex Goligoski but those players have signed long term deal 5 Year deals.  Demers carrying a 4.5 million dollar cap hit with a NTC.   Goligoski with a 5.475 million dollar cap hit and a NMC.  I think that you could make a good case that Russell performed better than Johnny Oduya who will be 35 at the start of this season and has a 3.75 million dollar cap hit with a modified NTC.

Is Kris Russell the Next Andrew Ference?

One of the things I’ve heard is that with Russell’s game he could become the next Ference.

The problem with that is, the Oiler’s signed Ference as a 34 year-old to a 4 year deal and Russell will likely sign a 1 year deal and is only 29.  From ages 29 – 33 Ference played 288 games and averaged over 19 minutes a night.  If the Oiler’s sign Russell to a reasonable contract and get the level of play that Ference provided the Bruins then it will be a helluva deal for the Oiler’s.

Player Age GP
Kris Russell 29 573
Andrew Ference 34 760

What Would You Expect from Russell?

He shouldn’t be a featured player in a top 4 role, but he can contribute as a depth player that can play within the top 4 in a pinch.  If a team could lower his TOI/G he might be a more effective player.  Offensively he’s put up .55 – .75 PPG, which would be ahead of most Oiler defenders.

Should the Oilers Sign Him?

First, I think that you have to way the good and the bad.

The Good

  • Russell is an actual NHL defender.  Although he’s critic’d by the analytics croud, he has been trusted to play 20+ minutes by his coaches.
  • He is at this moment a better defenseman than the Oiler’s currently have employed and penciled in their top six.
  • It would allow the team to send Nurse & Reinhart to the AHL for some seasoning.
  • It would allow the Oiler’s some depth when injury occurs.
  • The Oiler’s could flip him at/near the deadline if the defense core is healthy and Reinhart/Nurse or the field are ready to push for playing time.

The Bad

  • If you think he’s a legit top 4 defenseman, you will be disappointed.  I think he could anchor a decent bottom pairing.
  • If the Oiler’s sign Versteeg & Russell they are close to the roster limit.  It will be roughly 47 players.  Which doesn’t allow much wiggle room to add players or sign college free agents at the end of the season.  Not a huge issue but something to keep in mind.
  • The money.  How much will it cost?  That’s the key.

How Much?

  • If you are the Oiler’s you would want him in the 1 – 2 million dollar range.
  • I think more realistically the 2 – 3 million dollar range is what he should be signing.
  • I would consider going in the 3.5 million dollar range only because that’s what Oduya is getting and it would only be a 1 year deal.
  • Anything about 4 million should be avoided.

What Would I Do?

  • If Russell would sign for 2.5 million, I would do it.  Anything above that number, I would look at signing a player like Gryba (provided that he would want to come back) and look at the waiver wire for potential upgrade.  I think a guy like Ryan Sproul might be a good target for the Oilers.

 

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Lucic Regression & Contract Thoughts

I pulled together a list of power forwards from the mid 90’s to today to look at the drop off in offensive production we should expect from Lucic during the contract.

Here is the list of players that I looked into;  Shane Doan, Ryan Clowe, Patrik Elias, Andrew Ladd, Dany Heatley, David Backes, Marion Hossa, Scott Hartnell, Brenden Morrow, Brendan Shanahan, Rick Nash, David Clarkson, Keith Tkachuk, Milan Michalek, Glen Murray, Todd Bertuzzi, Jarome Iginla, Ryan Smyth, Corey Perry, Owen Nolan, Justin Williams, Chris Kunitz, Ryan Kesler, Dustin Brown, Blake Wheeler, Michael Ryder, Joffery Lupul, Brandon Dubinsky.

The numbers were taken from hockey-reference.com, I looked predominately at wingers (exception of Backes & Kesler)  that had  .6 PPG prior to their 27th birthday (with the exception of David Clarkson), were 6’1+ (with the exception of Kunitz) and had a seasons with 50+ PIM’s.  I excluded Alex Ovechkin because I think he’s at an entirely different level as Lucic, I think we can all agree on that right?

There were three groups of players;

  • Players that have played until they were 34/35. (12.5)
    • Shane Doan, Patrik Elias, Marion Hossa, Brendan Morrow, Brendan Shanahan, Keith Tkachuk, Glen Murray, Todd Bertuzzi, Jarome Iginla,
      Ryan Smyth, Justin Williams (played til 34 this will be his 35th year), Chris Kunitz & Owen Nolan (.5 – I’ll explain the .5 in a minute)
  • Players that were either ineffective or injuried. (4.5)
    • Ryan Clowe, Dany Heatley, Joffery Lupul, Owen Nolan (.5)
  • Players that are currently active.  (12)
    • Milan Lucic, Andrew Ladd, David Backes, Scott Hartnell, Rick Nash, David Clarkson, Milan Michalek, Corey Perry, Ryan Kesler, Dustin Brown, Blake Wheeler, Brandon Dubinsky

Owen Nolan.  So Nolan had a clause in his contract that he would get paid during the lockout and a court battle ensued.  After the lockout Nolan sat out a year due to a ‘knee’ injury.  He came back for his 34 & 35th year.  Therefore I gave him a .5 because he didn’t play for two of his 27 – 33 years but he played the final 34 & 35 years.

Please note; the Points / G do not take into effect the games missed by the players during their seasons.  For example Todd Bertuzzi in the season he played at age 31 averaged .73 PPG but missed 67 PPG.  Part of that was I wanted to look at year to year productivity and part of it was I am lazy.

The Age is listed per Hockey-Reference.com.  Hockey Reference has the players age on Feb. 1st of the given hockey season.

About Lucic:

Milan Lucic averaged .68 Pts/G between his 22 birth year to his 27th birth year.  Lucic has been fairly healthy only missing 10 games in his 6 previous seasons in the NHL.  He is, as of now, a legit 1st line forward.  The questions that we need to answer is;

  • How much offensive regression should the Oiler’s expect?
  • How much time missed should we expect?
  • When should we expect the drop off?
  • Is he going to be worth that contract?
  • What about Hall?  (I will not answer that question!)

Here’s a look at the players comparisons 22 – 27 season.

Milan Lucic 0.78 0.75 0.59 0.74 0.54 0.68
Player 22 23 24 25 26 27
Shane Doan 0.28 0.63 0.83 0.6 0.71 0.86
Ryan Clowe 0.11 0.59 0.53 0.73 0.7
Patrik Elias 0.68 1 1.17 0.81 0.7 0.99
Andrew Ladd 0.48 0.6 0.46 0.73 0.61 0.96
Dany Heatley 1.16 0.81 1.26 1.28 1.15
David Backes 0.47 0.43 0.66 0.61 0.76 0.66
Marion Hossa 0.93 0.83 1 1.01 1.15
Scott Hartnell 0.59 0.61 0.54 0.73 0.54
Brendan Morrow 0.54 0.49 0.61 0.6 0.8
Brendan Shanahan 0.88 0.86 1.32 1.26 0.91 1.05
Rick Nash 0.76 0.86 1.01 0.88 0.88 0.72
David Clarkson 0.27 0.39 0.52 0.22 0.58
Keith Tkachuk 1.06 1.29 1.06 0.96 1 0.86
Milan Michalek 0.85 0.7 0.74 0.52 0.5 0.78
Glen Murray 0.2 0.42 0.39 0.74 0.51 0.79
Todd Bertuzzi 0.45 0.5 0.63 0.7 1.18 1.18
Jarome Iginla 0.82 0.92 1.17 0.89 0.9 0.82
Ryan Smyth 0.44 0.66 0.85 0.82 0.92 0.72
Corey Perry 0.77 0.92 0.93 1.2 0.75 0.82
Owen Nolan 1.07 0.85 0.88 0.55 0.58 1.08
Justin Williams 0.56 0.93 0.82 0.81 0.32
Chris Kunitz 0.59 0.74
Ryan Kesler 0.33 0.46 0.72 0.91 0.89 0.64
Dustin Brown 0.57 0.77 0.66 0.68 0.7 0.66
Blake Wheeler 0.56 0.46 0.54 0.8 0.85 0.84
Michael Ryder 0.78   0.68 0.71 0.44
Joffery Lupul 0.65 0.35 0.82 0.63 0.61 0.57
Brandon Dubinsky 0.5 0.64 0.7 0.44 0.69 0.66
  • The average PPG is .74 for the above list.  Lucic is within the range but a little behind.
  • Also, Clarkson should not be a comparison.
Player 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
Shane Doan 0.8 0.75 0.98 0.89 0.67 0.83 0.63
Ryan Clowe 0.83 0.59 0.48 0.77 0.31
Patrik Elias 1.18 0.92 0.74 1.01 0.83 0.77 0.96
Andrew Ladd 0.69 0.77 0.59
Dany Heatley 0.88 1 0.8 0.65 0.58 0.37
David Backes 0.58 0.77 0.73 0.57
Marion Hossa 1.22 0.92 0.96 0.89 0.88 0.95 0.78 0.83
Scott Hartnell 0.6 0.82 0.34 0.67 0.78 0.62
Brendan Morrow 0.78 0.9 0.83 0.61 0.68 0.46 0.57 0.35
Brendan Shanahan 1.09 0.76 0.72 1 0.94 0.94 0.87 0.65
Rick Nash 0.95 0.6 0.87 0.6
David Clarkson 0.5 0.18 0.25
Keith Tkachuk 1.04 1.03 0.98 0.95 0.88 0.73 0.73
Milan Michalek 0.61 0.48 0.52 0.36
Glen Murray 0.61 0.87 1.12 0.74 0.83 0.76 0.48
Todd Bertuzzi 0.87 0.87 0.73 0.59 0.67 0.54 0.56
Jarome Iginla 1.34 1.2 1.09 0.84 1.05 0.82 0.75
Ryan Smyth 0.88 0.96 0.67 0.77 0.79 0.57 0.56
Corey Perry 1.01 0.82 0.76
Owen Nolan 0.86 0.88 0.72 0.74 0.53 0.42
Justin Williams 0.59 0.78 0.72 0.69 0.52 0.51 0.63
Chris Kunitz 0.61 0.65 0.64 0.73 0.74 1.08 0.87 0.54
Ryan Kesler 0.76 0.56 0.58 0.67
Dustin Brown 0.63 0.34 0.33 0.34
Blake Wheeler 0.77 0.95
Michael Ryder 0.72 0.4 0.52 0.76 0.76 0.41 0.4
Joffery Lupul 1.02 1.13 0.64 0.38 0.3
Brandon Dubinsky 0.77 0.64
  • Here is how players played from their 28 – 35 years.
22 – 27 28-35  %
Shane Doan 0.651667 0.792857 121.7%
Ryan Clowe 0.532 0.596 112.0%
Patrik Elias 0.891667 0.915714 102.7%
Andrew Ladd 0.64 0.683333 106.8%
Dany Heatley 1.132 0.713333 63.0%
David Backes 0.598333 0.6625 110.7%
Marion Hossa 0.984 0.92875 94.4%
Scott Hartnell 0.602 0.638333 106.0%
Brendan Morrow 0.608 0.6475 106.5%
Brendan Shanahan 1.046667 0.87125 83.2%
Rick Nash 0.851667 0.755 88.6%
David Clarkson 0.396 0.31 78.3%
Keith Tkachuk 1.038333 0.905714 87.2%
Milan Michalek 0.681667 0.4925 72.2%
Glen Murray 0.508333 0.772857 152.0%
Todd Bertuzzi 0.773333 0.69 89.2%
Jarome Iginla 0.92 1.012857 110.1%
Ryan Smyth 0.735 0.742857 101.1%
Corey Perry 0.898333 0.863333 96.1%
Owen Nolan 0.835 0.691667 82.8%
Justin Williams 0.688 0.634286 92.2%
Chris Kunitz 0.665 0.7325 110.2%
Ryan Kesler 0.658333 0.6425 97.6%
Dustin Brown 0.673333 0.41 60.9%
Blake Wheeler 0.675 0.86 127.4%
Michael Ryder 0.6525 0.567143 86.9%
Joffery Lupul 0.605 0.694 114.7%
Brandon Dubinsky 0.605 0.705 116.5%
98.97%
  • On average a player aged 28 – 35 will produce 98.97% of his offensive production from his previous 22 – 27 seasons.  On averaged from Lucic’s 22nd – 27th year he would score 56 points if fully healthy for an 82 game schedule.  His production, based on averages would drop to a grand-total of 55.

The final two years!  I forgot to put the headings on this chart.  The first is the name, second is the 22 – 33 years, third is the 34 – 35 years and the final one is the 34-35 season divided by 22 – 33 years.  Essentially how much offense have they retained versus their career.

Shane Doan 0.727273 0.73 100.38%
Patrik Elias 0.911818 0.865 94.87%
Marion Hossa 0.976364 0.805 82.45%
Brenden Morrow 0.663636 0.46 69.32%
Brendan Shanahan 0.9775 0.76 77.75%
Keith Tkachuk 1.01 0.73 72.28%
Glen Murray 0.656364 0.62 94.46%
Todd Bertuzzi 0.760909 0.55 72.28%
Jarome Iginla 1.003636 0.785 78.22%
Ryan Smyth 0.770909 0.565 73.29%
Justin Williams 0.821 0.475 57.86%
Chris Kunitz 0.659091 0.63 95.59%
Average 80.73%
  • On average a player a players production would drop by 19.27% in his 34th – 35th years compared to their 22nd – 33rd years.

A player in their 28th – 33rd season can expect to produce at 96% compared to their 24th – 27th season.  I didn’t add the chart, but looked at the numbers.  What’s interesting with Lucic is his 22 & 23 years were his better years.

What should we expect from Lucic?

Based on the players listed above Lucic’s projected points, barring injuries, per game during the life of the contract should be between .65 PPG for the first five seasons and then drop to .54 PPG during the last two years of the deal.

Now this doesn’t factor in that Lucic is likely going to play with McDavid.  So I’d expect those totals to increase but I don’t have any decent stats to back it up.  That was the reason I looked at Chris Kunitz.  Kunitz before being paired with Crosby in Pittsburg put up .61 PPG in Anahiem and since the move to Pittsburgh he’s now averaging .72 PPG.  That number includes his last two seasons (age 35 & 36) which his PPG has dropped to .54 & .51.

Putting everything into consideration if Lucic finds chemistry with McDavid, I think he should realistically expect a 10 – 20% bump in producitivty.  So let’s give him a 10% bump from his projected numbers without McDavid.  I will guess the first 5 years of the deal he should average over .70 Pts/G, if he or McDavid do not have any major injuries.

The Contract Still Sucks!

The current CBA is done in Sept 2022.  But there could be a change to the agreement as early as Sept. 2019.  Per Yahoo – This CBA is a 10-year agreement, but both can choose to opt out after 8 years. The NHL will have first crack to do so by Sept. 1, 2019. If they decline, the NHLPA can decide to opt out by Sept. 19, 2019. The 10-year deal expires Sept. 15, 2022. There’s actually a potential lockout date as early as 2019.  Perhaps the Oiler’s buy-out the last year(s) of the deal if the NHL has another amnesty buy-out after the expiration of the CBA.  Which would essentially be a get out of jail free on the last year(s) of the deal.  A potential lockout was already brought up by Brooksie.

Also, the Cap should go up by roughly 10 million during the last two years of the deal.Cap Projections have the Cap going up by roughly 3% for the last three years.

  • 2016-17 – 73
  • 2017-18 – 75
  • 2018-19 – 77
  • 2018-20 – 79
  • 2020-21 – 81
  • 2021-22 – 83
  • 2022-23 – 85.5

So although there is going to be an estimated 20% drop in player productivity in the final two years of the deal.  There is an estimated  13.5% & 17% increase in cap space for the final two years of the deal.  Those are likely conservative numbers too considering the current Canadian dollar and expansion.There is risk with the contract.  I think there is risk with any contract but I consider this to be a 5 year deal rather than the 7 years it’s reported as.  The final two years he has a 8 / 10 team lists for the final two years of the contract.  So there’s a chance that he could be dealt to a team needing cap space.The Body Will Break Down

  • I looked at the 12 players that have played til 35 to compare the number of games they missed from their 22-27 seasons, 28-35 seasons, 28 – 33 seasons & 34 35 seasons.
  • The numbers were interesting;
Player 22 – 27 28 – 35 28 – 33 34 – 35
Shane Doan 2.33 3.43 2.20 6.50
Patrik Elias 4.33 12.86 17.60 1.00
Marion Hossa 1.60 9.88 10.17 9.00
Brenden Morrow 17.50 19.00 22.83 7.50
Brendan Shanahan 5.33 2.50 2.67 2.00
Keith Tkachuk 11.00 13.57 17.80 3.00
Glen Murray 9.50 11.29 7.40 21.00
Todd Bertuzzi 12.17 15.86 22.00 0.50
Jarome Iginla 3.60 2.00 2.00 2.00
Ryan Smyth 8.00 9.29 13.00 0.00
Justin Williams 17.20 6.14 7.17 0.00
Chris Kunitz 7.00 9.38 8.00 13.50
Average 8.30 9.60 11.07 5.50

I honestly went into this thinking that here is where you would lose value in signing Lucic.  But the data that I pulled doesn’t look that way.  Now, I know that I have removed Lupul & Clowe from the data pool but if a player is on LTIR his cap hit doesn’t count after the start of the season.  Meaning you can hide those dollars.  I would have thought that there would have been more games missed by after a player after turning 28.

Now, I know the data sample is a little low but it’s what I’ve got.

I think that people are assuming that Lucic will completely fall apart.  With most people that’s not the case.  In fact the 34 – 35 year seasons the players were relatively healthy, their production dropped.

Estimated Production

How much does 35 million (real money for the first 5 years) of Katz’s money get us from a production standpoint?  My projected total for the first 5 seasons of Lucic’s deal, which I think is what Chia bought,  is:

360 GP – 105 G – 155 A -260 PTS  (Average season is 72 Games Played with 20 Goal & 52 Points)

What do you think is that worth 7 Million a season?

The final two years (assuming there isn’t a lockout).  There will be a 6 million dollar cap (but only 4.5 million in real dollars) for a 16/17 goal scorer.

144 GP – 33 G – 49 A – 82 PTS

Is it a bad signing?  I’m not sure that I love with the last two years.  I don’t think the signing is as bad as some people are making it out to be.

These are conservative estimates.

Let’s take a look at an optimistic point of view.  There is a chance that Lucic doesn’t miss 10 games a year, based on his history he’s just as likely to miss 10 games in the first 5 years of the contract.  Using Kunitz as a comparison playing with Crosby (& to a certain extent Malkin) during his 29 – 34 the Penguins Left Winger saw a 30% increase in production.  I only did a 10% increase for Lucic.  Let’s say on the positive side that Lucic will see roughly a 35% increase in man-games lost.  That’s just over two games a season rather than the (10 games I projected).  Let’s also use the 30% increase in point production playing with a generational talent during his 24 – 33 season.  That increases his; games to  points per game to .83 and decreases his games lost to 11 total.

  • Games:  399 (80)
  • Goals: 132 (26)
  • Assists: 199 (40)
  • Points 331  (66)

 

 

 

 

 

1-4-1

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  1. One for One I think this is a loss for the Oiler’s.  New Jersey receives the better player.
  2. Chiarelli has a good track record with defenseman (I understand the concern on Reinhart)
    1. Johnny Boychuck
    2. Andrew Ference
    3. Dennis Wideman
    4. Aaron Ward
    5. Dennis Seidenberg
    6. Zdeno Chara – A lot of people say this was before Chiarelli officially started with the Bruins.  Come on really?  The assistant GM goes to Boston and then signs the biggest free agent from his old team.  Also, most people in Ottawa figured that Redden was the better defenseman at the time.
  3. If it came down to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for Matt Dumba versus Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson that’s a tough decision.  Hall is the better player but I think that Larsson is ahead of Dumba at this time.  Although Dumba might be a better offensive defenseman.  I would have kept Hall but I wonder if that’s me.
  4. I wonder do the Oilers value Nuge more Hall.  Chiarelli might like Nuge’s game more than Hall’s.
  5. What makes the team better?  Nuge+Larsson or Hall+Dumba?  I would believe Hall plus Dumba but …  There’s also the chance that Nuge also get’s dealt.  There’s a chance Nuge get’s dealt and this means diddly-poo.
  6. The Oiler’s still don’t have an offensive defenseman a player that can run the PP and signing Demers won’t really fix that.  If I were the Oiler’s I’d be looking at Ryan Murphy from the Hurricanes.  Perhaps they look at stop gap players like Wideman.
  7. How much motivation should this be for Eberle?  He wasn’t bringing in any defenseman that played in a top 4, his best friend on the team has been dealt and I’m doubtful he’s seen as a ‘core’ piece anymore.  Eberle has been given ample opportunity and his value right now is at an all time low.  Hopefully he can turn this around.
  8. Last point.  Adam Larsson is a top pairing 5×5 defenseman.  All you have to do is look at his opposition.  Here are Adam Larsson’s top opposition for the past two seasons per stats.hockeyanalysis.com.  Here are the opponents numbers are Against / Not Against.
  • The first number is the CorsiFor increase (positive number) or decrease (negative number) the player had when not paired against Adam Larsson versus when he was against Adam Larsson.  Is the player getting more shots when he doesn’t face Adam Larsson.  For Oiler fans you want a positive number
  • The second number CA is CorsiAgainst/60 increase (positive number) / decrease (negative number).  Is the player allowing more/less shots against when he doesn’t face Adam Larsson?  If your the Oiler’s you want a negative number.
  • The third number is CF% for the player when he’s not against the Oilers subtracted by the CF% when he’s on the ice against the Oilers.  If your an Oiler’s fan you want a positive number.
  • For example Crosby, who is a pretty good player, had
    • 66.14 CF/60 (when not against Larsson) – 36.1 CF/60 (when against Larsson)
    • 51.34 CA/60 (when not against Larsson) minus 55.95 CA/60 (when against Larsson)
    • 55.5 CF% (when not against Larsson minus 39.2 CF% (when against Larsson)
Player CF CA CF%
CROSBY, SIDNEY 28.04 -4.61 16.3
FOLIGNO, NICK -4.34 2.43 -3.2
STEPAN, DEREK 12.78 3.03 5.3
ATKINSON, CAM 2.13 22.2 -10.7
PACIORETTY, MAX 40.45 6.93 20.4
KREIDER, CHRIS 20.06 -0.86 11.1
OVECHKIN, ALEX 24.55 -1.22 12.8
STAAL, JORDAN 30.55 -13.87 23.2
ZUCCARELLO, MATS 19.76 -8.06 14
GIROUX, CLAUDE 25.04 5.63 10.2
LINDHOLM, ELIAS 31.69 -1.54 18.5
BAILEY, JOSH 2.18 13.15 -5.4
OKPOSO, KYLE 17.59 -7.11 11.6
HUBERDEAU, JONATHAN 22.11 1.47 12.4
BARKOV, ALEKSANDER 25.17 -0.7 16
SCHENN, BRAYDEN 29.29 -0.53 17.1
BERGERON, PATRICE 24.1 -34.81 24.5
PLEKANEC, TOMAS 33.8 -7.59 22.6
VORACEK, JAKUB 27.01 -1.87 15.1
WILLIAMS, JUSTIN 14.06 -9.47 10.8
PERRY, COREY 35.75 5.66 21.1
GETZLAF, RYAN 27.02 7.26 11.5
JOHANSEN, RYAN 7.67 2.79 2.5
RASK, VICTOR 15.34 3.81 5.8
KUZNETSOV, EVGENY 15.46 -4.13 9.9
NEAL, JAMES 27.33 5.94 11.1
JENNER, BOONE 9.45 21.14 -5.9
KOPITAR, ANZE 24.21 2.79 10.3
SAAD, BRANDON 25.12 21.22 1.7
DUBINSKY, BRANDON 5.73 19.04 -7.6
JAGR, JAROMIR 27.53 -8.76 21.7
KUNITZ, CHRIS 33.63 -6.03 20.7
HARTNELL, SCOTT 3.58 9.05 -2.8
BRASSARD, DERICK 15.73 2.61 7
MARCHAND, BRAD 28.78 -35.47 26.4
PERRON, DAVID 28.88 -4.68 18.5
SIMMONDS, WAYNE 19.25 19.93 -1.4
HORNQVIST, PATRIC 16.96 -9.47 12.2
HAGELIN, CARL 28.49 5.55 13.3
BACKSTROM, NICKLAS 18.05 12.55 2.1
TAVARES, JOHN 8.84 -4.19 5.5
SKINNER, JEFF 2.64 16.03 -7.4
RIBEIRO, MIKE 17.72 -5.16 10.3
NORDSTROM, JOAKIM 20.94 -1.92 13.6
STAAL, ERIC 37.45 -7.63 24.5
KESSEL, PHIL 24.14 10.18 8.4
MILLER, J.T. 3.14 10.63 -3.8
GALCHENYUK, ALEX 16.16 -17.25 14.1
ENNIS, TYLER -12.08 22.3 -15.9
LUCIC, MILAN 2.07 5.03 -1.7
GALLAGHER, BRENDAN 35.36 -18.18 25
NELSON, BROCK -3.96 5.95 -4.5
MOULSON, MATT -11.34 17.77 -14.1
GAUDREAU, JOHNNY -4.38 11.66 -7.5
KOMAROV, LEO 31.61 4.38 17.5
KANE, PATRICK 27.09 -6.31 17.7
ZETTERBERG, HENRIK 14.25 21.86 -7.2
RYAN, BOBBY 21.9 -1.62 13
JOHANSSON, MARCUS 2.22 1.64 0.2
RAFFL, MICHAEL 37.05 -27.97 31.2
HAYES, KEVIN 29.92 15.11 11.5
MONAHAN, SEAN -1.46 9.93 -5.1
ZIBANEJAD, MIKA 25.43 0.04 14.2
LANDESKOG, GABRIEL 17.07 13.4 3.3
FAST, JESPER 11.69 16.1 -2.5
DESHARNAIS, DAVID 19.39 1.72 9.2
SEDIN, DANIEL 20.89 -19.16 19.7
ABDELKADER, JUSTIN 14.72 20.64 -6.1
SEDIN, HENRIK 21.56 -19.93 20.2
DATSYUK, PAVEL 23.1 -3.48 13.9
O_REILLY, RYAN 16.34 10.81 4.3
NESTRASIL, ANDREJ 33.25 -10.7 24.5
WINNIK, DANIEL 12.67 11.45 0.6
GRANLUND, MIKAEL 14.16 7 3.6
BURAKOVSKY, ANDRE 4.35 11.79 -4.2
TATAR, TOMAS 16.76 7.38 3.5
KADRI, NAZEM 36.01 -7.94 24
STROME, RYAN -0.8 8.68 -4.3
PAVELSKI, JOE 22.78 13.59 3.1
DOAN, SHANE 6.12 -4.61 4.7
ERIKSSON, LOUI 20.42 -10.63 15.3
THORNTON, JOE 28.03 18.36 2.1
WILSON, COLIN 19.65 -11.32 14.4
GRABOVSKI, MIKHAIL 9.45 6.16 1.2
HUDLER, JIRI 2.37 12.81 -5.1
DUCHENE, MATT 5.93 -2.37 3.9
ELLER, LARS 6.91 8.94 -1.1
TARASENKO, VLADIMIR 25.7 4.37 11.2
NIELSEN, FRANS 7.08 -11.55 7.8
FORSBERG, FILIP 32.55 -2.51 17.9
SMITH, REILLY 8.12 -4.43 6
PARISE, ZACH 8.59 10.29 -1.1
ANISIMOV, ARTEM 33.21 17.6 12.9
TERRY, CHRIS 11.3 14.38 -1.8
STEEN, ALEXANDER 7.47 -0.54 3.7
CULLEN, MATT 10.53 -0.04 5.2
LEE, ANDERS 10.85 9.07 0.3
MALKIN, EVGENI 16.9 0.91 7.4
SHEAHAN, RILEY 5.38 8.79 -2.6

Here’s the data pulled from stats.hockeyanalysis.com

LARSSON When on ice Against Opponent not against LARSSON
Player TOI CF60 CA60 CF% TOI CF60 CA60 CF%
CROSBY, SIDNEY 66:29:00 36.1 55.95 39.2 2278:46:00 64.14 51.34 55.5
FOLIGNO, NICK 55:02:00 57.78 49.06 54.1 2026:35:00 53.44 51.49 50.9
STEPAN, DEREK 52:31:00 41.13 55.98 42.4 1776:18:00 53.91 59.01 47.7
ATKINSON, CAM 52:14:00 53.99 36.76 59.5 1980:13:00 56.12 58.96 48.8
PACIORETTY, MAX 51:27:00 24.49 48.98 33.3 2165:33:00 64.94 55.91 53.7
KREIDER, CHRIS 50:27:00 36.87 57.09 39.2 2052:04:00 56.93 56.23 50.3
OVECHKIN, ALEX 48:26:00 38.4 55.75 40.8 2351:34:00 62.95 54.53 53.6
STAAL, JORDAN 47:28:00 30.34 60.67 33.3 1763:58:00 60.89 46.8 56.5
ZUCCARELLO, MATS 46:49:00 35.88 62.8 36.4 2263:36:00 55.64 54.74 50.4
GIROUX, CLAUDE 46:43:00 37.25 50.09 42.6 2255:54:00 62.29 55.72 52.8
LINDHOLM, ELIAS 46:42:00 29.55 53.96 35.4 2128:59:00 61.24 52.42 53.9
BAILEY, JOSH 45:18:00 58.28 45.03 56.4 2027:34:00 60.46 58.18 51
OKPOSO, KYLE 44:52:00 42.79 61.52 41 1971:33:00 60.38 54.41 52.6
HUBERDEAU, JONATHAN 44:17:00 31.16 51.49 37.7 2077:55:00 53.27 52.96 50.1
BARKOV, ALEKSANDER 43:40:00 27.48 52.21 34.5 1840:17:00 52.65 51.51 50.5
SCHENN, BRAYDEN 43:27:00 29 58 33.3 2054:40:00 58.29 57.47 50.4
BERGERON, PATRICE 42:48:00 40.65 82.71 33 2086:41:00 64.75 47.9 57.5
PLEKANEC, TOMAS 42:01:00 25.7 64.26 28.6 2184:17:00 59.5 56.67 51.2
VORACEK, JAKUB 42:01:00 34.27 55.69 38.1 2115:58:00 61.28 53.82 53.2
WILLIAMS, JUSTIN 40:29:00 47.43 59.28 44.4 2128:17:00 61.49 49.81 55.2
PERRY, COREY 40:17:00 20.85 47.66 30.4 2048:12:00 56.6 53.32 51.5
GETZLAF, RYAN 39:46:00 31.68 43.76 42 2141:19:00 58.7 51.02 53.5
JOHANSEN, RYAN 39:21:00 45.74 53.37 46.2 2219:56:00 53.41 56.16 48.7
RASK, VICTOR 38:56:00 43.15 50.86 45.9 1997:21:00 58.49 54.67 51.7
KUZNETSOV, EVGENY 38:48:00 40.21 57.22 41.3 2025:11:00 55.67 53.09 51.2
NEAL, JAMES 38:28:00 35.88 45.23 44.2 2153:51:00 63.21 51.17 55.3
JENNER, BOONE 38:16:00 43.9 39.2 52.8 1510:27:00 53.35 60.34 46.9
KOPITAR, ANZE 38:01:00 39.46 42.61 48.1 2255:59:00 63.67 45.4 58.4
SAAD, BRANDON 37:04:00 33.99 33.99 50 2105:13:00 59.11 55.21 51.7
DUBINSKY, BRANDON 37:03:00 51.82 37.25 58.2 1575:18:00 57.55 56.29 50.6
JAGR, JAROMIR 36:28:00 24.68 57.59 30 2144:21:00 52.21 48.83 51.7
KUNITZ, CHRIS 36:19:00 31.39 56.17 35.8 2080:59:00 65.02 50.14 56.5
HARTNELL, SCOTT 36:10:00 53.09 46.45 53.3 2039:06:00 56.67 55.5 50.5
BRASSARD, DERICK 35:59:00 40.02 53.36 42.9 2181:30:00 55.75 55.97 49.9
MARCHAND, BRAD 35:58:00 36.7 86.75 29.7 2082:51:00 65.48 51.28 56.1
PERRON, DAVID 35:46:00 30.2 55.36 35.3 1985:29:00 59.08 50.68 53.8
SIMMONDS, WAYNE 35:33:00 40.51 35.44 53.3 1953:41:00 59.76 55.37 51.9
HORNQVIST, PATRIC 35:17:00 45.91 59.52 43.5 1919:10:00 62.87 50.05 55.7
HAGELIN, CARL 34:51:00 30.99 46.48 40 2069:57:00 59.48 52.03 53.3
BACKSTROM, NICKLAS 34:49:00 43.08 41.36 51 2253:40:00 61.13 53.91 53.1
TAVARES, JOHN 34:47:00 55.2 60.37 47.8 2457:32:00 64.04 56.18 53.3
SKINNER, JEFF 34:18:00 54.23 38.48 58.5 2082:31:00 56.87 54.51 51.1
RIBEIRO, MIKE 34:07:00 47.48 54.52 46.6 2294:56:00 65.2 49.36 56.9
NORDSTROM, JOAKIM 33:31:00 30.43 53.7 36.2 1304:42:00 51.37 51.78 49.8
STAAL, ERIC 33:25:00 26.93 57.46 31.9 2328:50:00 64.38 49.83 56.4
KESSEL, PHIL 32:34:00 35.01 49.74 41.3 2247:58:00 59.15 59.92 49.7
MILLER, J.T. 32:13:00 52.15 44.7 53.8 1715:35:00 55.29 55.33 50
GALCHENYUK, ALEX 31:48:00 45.28 73.58 38.1 2082:12:00 61.44 56.33 52.2
ENNIS, TYLER 31:31:00 55.21 45.69 54.7 1457:58:00 43.13 67.99 38.8
LUCIC, MILAN 31:19:00 61.31 45.98 57.1 2251:07:00 63.38 51.01 55.4
GALLAGHER, BRENDAN 31:10:00 30.8 73.16 29.6 1759:19:00 66.16 54.98 54.6
NELSON, BROCK 31:03:00 61.84 50.24 55.2 1955:04:00 57.88 56.19 50.7
MOULSON, MATT 31:02:00 58 42.53 57.7 1843:55:00 46.66 60.3 43.6
GAUDREAU, JOHNNY 30:37:00 58.79 47.03 55.6 2270:27:00 54.41 58.69 48.1
KOMAROV, LEO 30:35:00 25.5 51.01 33.3 1567:22:00 57.11 55.39 50.8
KANE, PATRICK 30:09:00 31.84 59.7 34.8 2184:52:00 58.93 53.39 52.5
ZETTERBERG, HENRIK 29:43:00 38.36 26.25 59.4 2309:30:00 52.61 48.11 52.2
RYAN, BOBBY 29:31:00 32.52 60.98 34.8 2066:09:00 54.42 59.36 47.8
JOHANSSON, MARCUS 29:23:00 53.09 51.05 51 1966:46:00 55.31 52.69 51.2
RAFFL, MICHAEL 29:13:00 24.64 78.04 24 1852:45:00 61.69 50.07 55.2
HAYES, KEVIN 29:00:00 24.83 39.31 38.7 1822:22:00 54.75 54.42 50.2
MONAHAN, SEAN 28:24:00 54.93 50.7 52 2286:56:00 53.47 60.63 46.9
ZIBANEJAD, MIKA 28:19:00 31.78 59.33 34.9 1997:01:00 57.21 59.37 49.1
LANDESKOG, GABRIEL 28:06:00 36.3 46.98 43.6 2174:09:00 53.37 60.38 46.9
FAST, JESPER 28:03:00 40.64 38.5 51.4 1539:42:00 52.33 54.6 48.9
DESHARNAIS, DAVID 27:50:00 38.8 53.89 41.9 1953:00:00 58.19 55.61 51.1
SEDIN, DANIEL 27:44:00 32.45 69.23 31.9 2178:45:00 53.34 50.07 51.6
ABDELKADER, JUSTIN 27:32:00 37.05 26.15 58.6 1997:57:00 51.77 46.79 52.5
SEDIN, HENRIK 27:28:00 32.77 69.9 31.9 2079:40:00 54.33 49.97 52.1
DATSYUK, PAVEL 27:21:00 37.29 46.07 44.7 1901:47:00 60.39 42.59 58.6
O_REILLY, RYAN 27:09:00 35.36 46.41 43.2 2183:11:00 51.7 57.22 47.5
NESTRASIL, ANDREJ 27:06:00 26.57 57.56 31.6 1314:53:00 59.82 46.86 56.1
WINNIK, DANIEL 26:53:00 42.41 42.41 50 1861:32:00 55.08 53.86 50.6
GRANLUND, MIKAEL 26:47:00 44.8 49.28 47.6 2058:46:00 58.96 56.28 51.2
BURAKOVSKY, ANDRE 26:45:00 56.07 42.62 56.8 1517:30:00 60.42 54.41 52.6
TATAR, TOMAS 26:41:00 42.72 35.98 54.3 1953:59:00 59.48 43.36 57.8
KADRI, NAZEM 26:40:00 24.75 65.25 27.5 2083:33:00 60.76 57.31 51.5
STROME, RYAN 26:24:00 63.64 50 56 1863:53:00 62.84 58.68 51.7
PAVELSKI, JOE 26:21:00 40.99 36.43 52.9 2330:33:00 63.77 50.02 56
DOAN, SHANE 26:20:00 50.13 63.8 44 2079:55:00 56.25 59.19 48.7
ERIKSSON, LOUI 25:52:00 37.11 62.63 37.2 2201:44:00 57.53 52 52.5
THORNTON, JOE 25:48:00 37.21 30.23 55.2 2176:54:00 65.24 48.59 57.3
WILSON, COLIN 25:43:00 42 62.99 40 1767:31:00 61.65 51.67 54.4
GRABOVSKI, MIKHAIL 25:31:00 51.73 49.38 51.2 1318:03:00 61.18 55.54 52.4
HUDLER, JIRI 25:20:00 49.74 45 52.5 1949:10:00 52.11 57.81 47.4
DUCHENE, MATT 25:19:00 45.03 66.36 40.4 2285:07:00 50.96 63.99 44.3
ELLER, LARS 25:17:00 47.46 45.09 51.3 1939:57:00 54.37 54.03 50.2
TARASENKO, VLADIMIR 25:02:00 35.95 47.94 42.9 2176:03:00 61.65 52.31 54.1
NIELSEN, FRANS 25:01:00 52.76 67.16 44 1815:50:00 59.84 55.61 51.8
FORSBERG, FILIP 24:59:00 33.62 52.84 38.9 2197:02:00 66.17 50.33 56.8
SMITH, REILLY 24:36:00 48.78 53.66 47.6 2072:05:00 56.9 49.23 53.6
PARISE, ZACH 24:32:00 51.36 46.47 52.5 2014:38:00 59.95 56.76 51.4
ANISIMOV, ARTEM 24:22:00 22.16 36.94 37.5 1664:27:00 55.37 54.54 50.4
TERRY, CHRIS 24:03:00 42.41 39.92 51.5 1329:19:00 53.71 54.3 49.7
STEEN, ALEXANDER 23:59 50.03 55.04 47.6 1956:29:00 57.5 54.5 51.3
CULLEN, MATT 23:58 45.06 52.57 46.2 1553:15:00 55.59 52.53 51.4
LEE, ANDERS 23:57 52.61 47.6 52.5 1811:34:00 63.46 56.67 52.8
MALKIN, EVGENI 23:53 45.22 50.24 47.4 1761:50:00 62.12 51.15 54.8
SHEAHAN, RILEY 23:48 47.9 37.82 55.9 1851:17:00 53.28 46.61 53.3

Steve Austins

The Oiler’s roster will look different.  This weekend might seem like an episode of Charles in Charge it might make us cry, laugh or shout why the hell does anyone pay any attention to this shit.  There’s going to be change in the Oiler’s roster this weekend and Chiarelli’s in charge.

TSN has listed 5 assets on their top 30 lists and Frank Seravalli said, ‘the odds still lie on the jettisoning of one of Edmonton’s $6-million forwards.’  What is the fair value for one of the Six-Millon-Dollar men?  Also, outside of Eberle, Nuge & Hall the Oiler’s also have Yakupov & the 4th overall pick on the list.

Here are some 5X5 stats via stats.hockeyanalysis.com (great site) to show the Even Strength numbers for the 4 assets named by Frank Seravalli.  I also included Benoit Pouliot as his name has also been mentioned in a couple of rumors as well.

Player GF/60 PTS/60 CF% GF%
Team 2.04 N/A 48.8 44.3
Taylor Hall 2.74 2.31 51.7 51.8
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2.41 1.36 47.9 45.7
Jordan Eberle 2.41 1.85 50.9 44.8

Taylor Hall

Why the Oiler’s should trade him?

  • He’s bad in the room.  I haven’t been in the room but I can speculate.  I heard a rumor that his pre-game song was Michael Bolton’s – “Can I Touch You There?”  I just listened to that song and it’s horrible.  How can you trust a guy like that?
  • He’s not a winner.  I heard he finished 6th in his middle school badminton tournament where he was projected to come first.  He just can’t win!  I mean aside from the Memorial Cup, OHL & International Tournaments.
  • He has the most value outside of Connor McDavid.

Why the Oiler’s shouldn’t trade him?

  • There’s a 6% increase in CF%, 17% increase in GF% & 34% increase in Goals/60 when Taylor Hall is on the ice.
  • He’s top 10 scorer in the NHL.  The only players ahead of him for even strength points/60 in the last 3 years are; Benn, Tarasenko, Seguin, Crosby, Getzlaf, Kane & Perry.  Would you trade any of those players?
  • They won’t get fair value for him.

What teams could potentially inquire about him?

  1. Any team can, but I’ll put together a list of three.  New York Islanders – need an elite winger to pair with Tavares.
  2. Anahiem Ducks looking for an elite Left Winger and have an abundance of defenseman.  There’s a rumor the Oiler’s need a defenseman …
  3. Buffalo Sabres.  Tim Murray is a gambler and willing to shake things up.

What is the potential return?

  1. Islanders – Travis Hamonic, 1st Round Pick & Ryan Strome
  2. Ducks – Hampus Lindholm & Nicolas Kerdiles.  Lindholm for Hall is fairly even.  I would try and grab a depth player from their roster.  Kerdiles is a guy I like.
  3. Sabres – Rasmus Ristolainen & Zemgus Girgensons.  The Sabres have several right hand shot d-man.  Nobody is talking about trading Ristolainen but if they want to acquire a top 10 winger they have to pay the price.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Why the Oiler’s should trade him?

  • Outside of Hall & arguably the 4th overall pick.  Nuge has the highest value.
  • He doesn’t provide top line offense.  His 3 year 5×5 Pts/60 is 1.62.  Which is good numbers but not elite.  His career numbers without Hall or Eberle are not strong.
  • The Oiler’s might feel like they can replace this player (Bozak, Berglund, Shaw, Helm are some options) and are comfortable with McDavid and Drai as their top pivots.

Why the Oiler’s shouldn’t trade him?

  • Nuge is the team’s most complete forward.  He is the only top player that kills penalties. He averages over 19:28 minutes of ice per game since he’s entered the league.
  • You would have to believe his value is low.  Nuge had a bad year last year, he had his second worst points/G and 5×5 points/60 in his career.  With Nuge I think there’s another level that he can hit.  Eberle & Hall are likely closer to the finished product.  With Nuge, in my opinion, I don’t think he’s a finished product he’s had to play center as a teenager against the best players and finally the team has some shelter around him.  I don’t feel like this is the time to trade him.
  • Nuge has the most term left on his contract.  There’s five years left.  That’s important, Eberle has three years and he’s a free agent and Hall have four years left.  The Oiler’s will have to trade one of these players or watch them leave as a free agent when players like McDavid, Drai, Nurse, Tkachuk start getting their next contracts.

What teams could potentially inquire about him?

  1. Columbus – Just traded Ryan Johansen and could use a first line center.
  2. St. Louis – Hitchcock would love this player.
  3. Minnesota – Koivu & Granlund haven’t taken a step forward.

What is the potential return?

  1. Columbus would need to be centered around Savard.  The Jackets would want to trade a contract as well to make it work.  Let’s say Nuge & Korpse for Savard, Hartnell & 2nd Round pick.  The Oiler’s could buy out Hartnell’s last year of the deal if he wasn’t playing well.  To give them the cap relieve to sign McDavid & Nurse.
  2. Blues.  Shattenkirk & a 1st Round Pick.  If I were the Oiler’s that’s what I would ask for, maybe the Oiler’s have to give a little extra.  I would give the Blues 12 million to resign PRV, Rattie, Schwartz & attempt to re-sign Brouwer.  They could move Berglund to get more cap relief.  I think that’s probably the best immediate return the Blues would get for Shattenkirk too.  I think there’s a chance he’s dealt for draft picks and young players.  If the Blues want to win next year this could be their best return.  The issue for the Oiler’s is signability that’s why they would need to ask for the additional first.
  3. Minnesota.  Dumba & Granlund for Nuge+.  Not sure what the plus would be but it might be a deal that works for both sides.  From the Wild side they might need to shed more contract.  So lets add Vanek from the Wild side and Yakupov from the Oiler’s side.  Dumba, Granlund & Vanek for Nuge, Yakupov & a mid prospect (Lagesson or something).

 

Jordan Eberle

Why the Oiler’s should trade him?

  • The contract.  Out of the six million dollar men, his contract ends first.
  • He’s a first line player, his 1.91 5X5 Pts/60, rank him 70th among forwards who have played 750+ minutes in the past three seasons but not elite.
  • He’s a one dimensional player.  Eberle can score but doesn’t bring another element to the game.

Why the Oiler’s shouldn’t trade him?

  • The Oiler’s depth on right wing is not strong.  After Eberle the Oiler’s currently have; Yakupov (likely to be traded), Kassian, Pakarinen, Pitlick and a couple of new signings Jere Sallinen & Patrick Russell.
  • Eberle’s value is low at this point as well.  This year was the first time since his rookie season that he’s missed more than 3 games and 47 points are also the lowest since his rookie season.
  • Eberle playing with McDavid could be an excellent candidate for a pump and dump.

What teams could potentially inquire about him?

  • Buffalo Sabres could look for top line winger.
  • New York Islanders with Okposo gone and likley not enough assets to grab Hall perhaps they turn their attention to Eberle.
  • Arizona Coyotes could use some scoring help.

What is the potential return?

  • Buffalo Sabres:  Zach Bogosian. I know he’s not what people want but he’s got good size.  His career 5×5 pts/60 is .77, only Klefbom has better numbers from the Oiler’s current defenseman.
  • New York Islanders: The likelihood of Eberle getting Hamonic is very low.  I think if he gets traded it will be to make cap space for another move (such as the Oiler’s signing Lucic).  I’ll say the Islanders first round pick & Ryan Strome or Ryan Pullock.